weatherbo Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 On 10/21/2013 at 8:09 PM, Stebo said: I am surprised by their snow amounts, if it is mostly snow and coming at night it will eventually be snow falling upon snow. 1-3" is going to end up being light I think. Their AFD covers that concern and lays the groundwork for heavier amounts. maybe even thunder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Let's see whos right in the end for western DTX ares versus eastern GRR. Ingham county is 10 miles to my west, this is their forecast versus mine. If you looked at DTX you wouldn't think there was a shot at early season snow. 99% likely DTX fails on this forecast for my city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 On 10/21/2013 at 8:16 PM, weatherbo said: Their AFD covers that concern and lays the groundwork for heavier amounts. maybe even thunder! Bold prediction. Someone near Kalkaska gets 8-12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 18z NAM is jacked and further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 On 10/21/2013 at 8:37 PM, Thundersnow12 said: 18z NAM is jacked and further north Thats for sure. 4km NAM has 6" swath running through Iowa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 On 10/21/2013 at 8:21 PM, Jonger1150 said: Bold prediction. Someone near Kalkaska gets 8-12 inches. On 10/21/2013 at 8:21 PM, Jonger1150 said: Bold prediction. Someone near Kalkaska gets 8-12 inches. that's bold alright... lol even the lightest of showers have begun to drop ice, so changeover to snow should be fairly easy after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 On 10/21/2013 at 8:50 PM, weatherbo said: Bold prediction. Someone near Kalkaska gets 8-12 inches. Bold prediction. Someone near Kalkaska gets 8-12 inches. that's bold alright... lol even the lightest of showers have begun to drop ice, so changeover to snow should be fairly easy after dark. I'm not really speaking about tonight though, when that clipper passes to the south, it will fire the lakes up and that's when an isolated spot should get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Definitely disagree with this. 4" isn't guaranteed to fall anywhere, but you're telling me there isn't at least a 10% chance in that band tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 18z 4km NAM. Likely overdone, but amazing to see a map like this in mid-late October. Some 6" swaths in the main band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 On 10/21/2013 at 9:06 PM, cyclone77 said: Definitely disagree with this. 4" isn't guaranteed to fall anywhere, but you're telling me there isn't at least a 10% chance in that band tomorrow? They are just under your forecast with a 5-10% prob: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=1&ftype=probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 On 10/21/2013 at 8:37 PM, Thundersnow12 said: 18z NAM is jacked and further north A juiced up 18z NAM run. Feels like old times. Complicating factor for snow chances/amounts in immediate Chi metro may be if an onshore flow develops. Lake is still very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 On 10/21/2013 at 10:09 PM, Hoosier said: A juiced up 18z NAM run. Feels like old times. Complicating factor for snow chances/amounts in immediate Chi metro may be if an onshore flow develops. Lake is still very warm. Winds off the lake don't look to be a problem but I'm sure the warm lake will affect the lakeside counties to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 On 10/21/2013 at 9:18 PM, cyclone77 said: 18z 4km NAM. Likely overdone, but amazing to see a map like this in mid-late October. Some 6" swaths in the main band. Holy cow! lol Starting to think DBQ won't be denied. MQT and the LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 On 10/21/2013 at 10:15 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Winds off the lake don't look to be a problem but I'm sure the warm lake will affect the lakeside counties to an extent. Tomorrow could be a prime opportunity to witness the Alek microclimate in action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 On 10/21/2013 at 10:21 PM, Hoosier said: Tomorrow could be a prime opportunity to witness the Alek microclimate in action. His personal bank clock temp reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 NAM 18z. 8th map I tried to capture failed to load for whatever reason. Ramsey calling for highs 35-41° area wide. Map shows a good burst of snow right through the middle of DVN and LOT tomorrow afternoon. Would be nice to see this a couple hours later towards dusk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 On 10/21/2013 at 10:21 PM, Hoosier said: Tomorrow could be a prime opportunity to witness the Alek microclimate in action. It will be raging snowfall 25 miles to Aleks SW, while he's sitting at 49 and drizzle. The city is blazing with summer residual latent heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 99% rain is p much a lock IMBY....thanks goodness. 1-2" is looking possible for LaSalle and environs if everything works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 That's right I did it. Here's the first 18hr RAP posting of the event lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Single dominant south westerly band organizing pretty quick. If this continues to hold together, snow totals from extreme N Antrim, Charlevoix, and Emmet counties could be in the several inch range overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 On 10/21/2013 at 10:39 PM, Jonger1150 said: It will be raging snowfall 25 miles to Aleks SW, while he's sitting at 49 and drizzle. The city is blazing with summer residual latent heat. still 72 inside my apartment without running the furnace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 On 10/21/2013 at 10:39 PM, Jonger1150 said: It will be raging snowfall 25 miles to Aleks SW, while he's sitting at 49 and drizzle. The city is blazing with summer residual latent heat. it's awesome climo tho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 On 10/21/2013 at 10:40 PM, A-L-E-K said: still 72 inside my apartment without running the furnace The city of Chicago has 15 more growing days per year than areas outside the heat zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 On 10/21/2013 at 10:39 PM, cyclone77 said: That's right I did it. Here's the first 18hr RAP posting of the event lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Too bad this isn't December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 On 10/21/2013 at 10:41 PM, weatherbo said: it's awesome climo tho! agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 On 10/21/2013 at 10:48 PM, Thundersnow12 said: rapFLT_sfc_radar_018.gif Those newer COD graphics look sweet. Hey any thoughts on any T-snow potential with this? Wondering if that period of strong UVVs will be enough to ignite any convective element with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 On 10/21/2013 at 10:49 PM, Jonger1150 said: Too bad this isn't December. Nah it would be bad if it was December being missed to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 cyclone looks prime for an inch or two of cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 On 10/21/2013 at 10:49 PM, Jonger1150 said: Too bad this isn't December. Yeah this system would be very nice later in the season. Unfortunately we're gonna take a big bite out of these amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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