andyhb Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Been way too long since we saw a front sided winter. To have the possibility this early makes me excited but the east cost had a massive Halloween blizzard for the 10-11 season beginning... We all know what happened next. Never the less blade and salter will be ready on at least one truck tomorrow night. ;-) You mean 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 GFS coming in similar to the NAM in track... actually a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 GFS coming in similar to the NAM in track... actually a bit north. GFSclipper1022b.png Looks pretty consistently what the GFS has been showing; N Illinois and N Indiana bullseye, MKE on the northern edge, may catch a couple flakes if surface temps can get near freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 Looks pretty consistently what the GFS has been showing; N Illinois and N Indiana bullseye, MKE on the northern edge, may catch a couple flakes if surface temps can get near freezing.850mb and 925mb temps are impressive on the GFS too. I would be happy to get a 5 minute snow shower out of this.GGEM should be interesting to see next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 GGEM is on board with the GFS. Bullseye, Cyclone, Hawkeye, and maybe Sch. Stormer too. I can't help but feel very skeptical about this whole setup, but things are looking good that someone in northern Illinois sees some flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 Definitely some cold 925mb's and 850mb's Stripe of -2.5°C - -5°C near I-88. GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 New 00z Euro back to a stronger/further north solution compared to the weak sauce 12z evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 interesting scenario possibly.... in AFD, APX discusses a setup similar to Buffalo, Oct 2006. POTENTIAL DEPTH ANDMAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION COULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RAPIDLY ERODING THISMELTING LAYER IN A QUICK WAY (SIMILAR CIRCUMSTANCES BACK IN MIDOCTOBER 2006 ALLOWED LAKE SHOWERS TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW...EVENDOWN TO THE COAST AT TIMES. SEE BUFFALO DURING THE SAME EVENT). IFTHINGS COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT...COULD EASILY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OFWET SNOW BY MORNING...WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITYTONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-68 ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.THESE SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH...AND POTENTIALLY...CHANGE OVER TOSNOW LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. IFPRECIPITATION BECOMES ALL SNOW...ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ALONGWITH SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THIS TOOCCUR WOULD BE SEVERAL MILES INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. CONFIDENCEIS VERY LOW ON THIS SCENARIO...AND ANY TYPE OF IMPACT OR SPECIFICSNOWFALL AMOUNTS CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE STAYTUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 The northern solution is the way to go. The question is what's the flake-age potential... The event in the Plains a few days back is a good benchmark for what you want...Mod-heavier precip, temps in the low to mid-30's and sub-32F wet bulb temps and DP's. The GFS and now the NAM also shows exactly this. Have that work out and someone will see some sort of accumulation, if not a T is the best you will do. First DAB call for the contest tiebreaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 First DAB call for the contest tiebreaker? Hah! The funny thing is that any snow that falls won't even count towards the contest totals because it's for November through March snow totals. I wonder if that applies to the tie breaker questions. Could be the case where some areas have above average seasonal snowfall totals but come in as under on the contest because the snow fell outside the contest range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Good AFD from DVN. Iowa City to Cycloneville sitting pretty IMO for best chance of accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Tough little forecast tomorrow, 12z NAM has northern IL getting colder overnight than IA with more clearing where out west will have to deal with the clouds moving in. Then as mid-level H5-H7) temps cool, the DGZ depth over northern IL increases as 925mb temps hold around -2ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 This is going to be a rain/snow event with little to no accums outside a micro stripe of a dusting around LaSalle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Curious to see if we can eek out something measurable here. I don't have exact stats but measurable snow in October is not very common and we missed out on the snow associated with post-tropical Sandy last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Yeah I'm thinking this is gonna be a nice little event for someone. A very narrow corridor will have the favorable thermo profiles juxtaposed with the best precip, but there should be a nice/narrow band of decent accums. I'm thinking 2-3" could easily pile up in that narrow band from Iowa into IL. Even though some of the 12zs are out, it's still too early to pinpoint the exact area, since because of the narrow nature of the band it makes the margin for error rather high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 12z 4km NAM. Shows some nice banding feeding into the colder air. Just north of where the rain/snow line sets up will be the sweet spot. EDIT: 17z reflect here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Yeah I'm thinking this is gonna be a nice little event for someone. A very narrow corridor will have the favorable thermo profiles juxtaposed with the best precip, but there should be a nice/narrow band of decent accums. I'm thinking 2-3" could easily pile up in that narrow band from Iowa into IL. Even though some of the 12zs are out, it's still too early to pinpoint the exact area, since because of the narrow nature of the band it makes the margin for error rather high. This, going to get a several hour period near the IA/IL border, maybe just on the IL side where you get the best UVV's juxtaposed with a deeper DGZ, probably near the lunch hour when H7 temps cool slightly. Loop of the H7 UVV's since I can't get it to show up on here for some reason. http://i.picasion.com/pic74/97e01444be76c4e783ca69a05a9d8c8f.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 This, going to get a several hour period near the IA/IL border, maybe just on the IL side where you get the best UVV's juxtaposed with a deeper DGZ, probably near the lunch hour when H7 temps cool slightly. Loop of the H7 UVV's since I can't get it to show up on here for some reason. http://i.picasion.com/pic74/97e01444be76c4e783ca69a05a9d8c8f.gif Nice! Yeah it definitely looks like the highest totals will occur in Iowa, as the snow will have established there prior to sunrise. Probably in the Fort Dodge/Marshalltown/Waterloo/Cedar Rapids area. The intense UVVs should make for some intense rates of snowfall on the IL side too, but later start time may take a little bite out of the total accums. Either way it's gonna look like a winter wonderland over part of the area tomorrow. Verbatim the 12z NAM and GFS both would give the QC area a good 2-4" snow. If things still look good later tonight I'll set up the ol' GoPro and do a backyard time lapse. Would look pretty cool with the trees still full of leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 DPA MLI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 The timing couldn't be much better for my area. The best precip should fall before 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 12z GFS favoring DVN for this event. Going to say Cyclone will get near 1.0" on the coldest surfaces. Edit: 12z NAM Whatever model WGN was showing, showed the heaviest band of snow near I-88 and even some decent returns in the northern suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 The next 8-10 days could turn out to be a LES bonanza with a constant NW flow, numerous ripples riding the flow, and relatively warm lake temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 Jim just showed this map. NAM showing the low creating a band of sub -2.5°C 925mb temperatures as it's exciting Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 RGEM looks very similar to the GFS/NAM. Thinking we could see some 10% 4" probs start to show up on the next HPC update this afternoon. Particularly in a swath from Storm Lake Iowa to Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Jim just showed this map. firstsnowfallLOT.png NAM showing the low creating a band of sub -2.5°C 925mb temperatures as it's exciting Iowa. ClipperUpper925.png Man, Skilling must get 10 weeks of vacation a year lol. Must be nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 12z Euro looks very similar to the other 12z models. Pretty decent model agreement between all of the major models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 Man, Skilling must get 10 weeks of vacation a year lol. Must be nice! Lol! Probably in Alaska again. 12z EURO Clipper - still look like the most southern solution. And in the last frame you can see the LES/R organizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Euro a bit north, but only ~0.10" for CR. It has the best burst of precip in the Quad Cities area (~0.33"). I'm thinking 1 inch of snow will be CR's best case, but we should whiten the grass a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Northern Michigan's first WWA /O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.131022T0000Z-131022T1400Z/EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX320 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO10 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THISEVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY.HAZARDOUS WEATHER...* THROUGH THIS EVENING: RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH SNOW GRADUALLY MIXING IN TOWARDS SUNSET. ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER DARK.* RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AT TIMES OVER INLAND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. SNOW MAY OCCASIONALLY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.* STORM TOTAL SNOW: 1 TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ON GRASSY SURFACES FOR LOCATIONS INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LESS THAN ONE INCH IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.IMPACTS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 I am surprised by their snow amounts, if it is mostly snow and coming at night it will eventually be snow falling upon snow. 1-3" is going to end up being light I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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