Geos Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 It looks like this coming week will feature lake effect rain and snow throughout our subforum as well as a couple Clippers that have the chance to produce a little snow at least in the air, if not on the ground in a few locations. Clipper one goes by to the north across northern WI and upper Michigan - maybe northern lower MI as well. And the 2nd Clipper, 18z GFS Snowfall predicted on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Hopefully, we will see some mood flakes down this way. Just enough flakes to put me in the mood for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 I think there's gonna be some real surprise LE totals next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 20, 2013 Author Share Posted October 20, 2013 I think there's gonna be some real surprise LE totals next week. Here's sounding near your location about the time LES/R starts. Edit: 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 20, 2013 Author Share Posted October 20, 2013 6z run favoring the same areas along I-80. LES/R cranks up in its wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 6z run favoring the same areas along I-80. LES/R cranks up in its wake. Last thing I expected last week was a clipper that might contain at least a rain/snow mix passing to the south. Based on their comments, Stebo and ChiStorm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Most of Northern Ontario expecting to get around 5" of snow, which should be great if this trough sticks around.. we could have a front loaded winter after all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 12z GFS still spitting out up to 3" in northern IN Tuesday evening, per TwisterData: But the raw data from RZL (Rensselaer, which is pretty much in the middle of that 3" contour) shows 925 mb temps at or above freezing the whole time. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KRZL So I'm skeptical of anyone seeing more than just flakes in the air. (Of course, just having flakes in the air a week and a half before Halloween is awesome.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 also... (from LOT) NOTE...THE GFS FEATURES 2 INCHES OF SNOW OVER CHICAGO TUESDAY. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL VERY WARM ACROSS THE REGION SO IF SNOW WERE TO FALL...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. FOR INSTANCE...AT THE OFFICE THIS MORNING...OUR 4 INCH SOIL TEMPERATURE WAS 50F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 I've seen 2" of snow in n Indiana on oct 21 st before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Will this exceed Chicago's previous year total up to mid Dec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 I've seen 2" of snow in n Indiana on oct 21 st before Probably was a colder period up until that point in the fall for efficient accumulation to occur. This could still bring a dusting or slushy inch or perhaps two to someone in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, or Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 12z Euro pretty far south and very weak with the Tue clipper. Don't think any one model has a true handle on this wave yet, but the fact that the Euro agrees with the NAM is interesting. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a complete whiff with this system here, but at least there is still some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 12z Euro pretty far south and very weak with the Tue clipper. Don't think any one model has a true handle on this wave yet, but the fact that the Euro agrees with the NAM is interesting. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a complete whiff with this system here, but at least there is still some potential. EE rule in effect for the first possible snow of the year. EDIT: GFS is showing cold as far as the eye can see, with a particularly cold shot near the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 20, 2013 Author Share Posted October 20, 2013 12z Euro pretty far south and very weak with the Tue clipper. Don't think any one model has a true handle on this wave yet, but the fact that the Euro agrees with the NAM is interesting. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a complete whiff with this system here, but at least there is still some potential. 18z NAM just misses you. Maybe some flurries if your lucky. I'd be siked to just get a quick snow shower! 12z GFS. Thinking if this clipper is going anywhere, it will be north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 6 flakes for Lasalle, final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 I always like GRRs more aggressive forecast than DTX.... This is 15 miles to my west. I think DTX is far underestimating the LES potential and embedded snow within those rain/snow cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 6 flakes for Lasalle, final call DVN mentioned there's some decent saturation potential in the DGZ, so I'm going with closer to 10 flakes. 18z GFS still fairly bullish with the system FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 DVN mentioned there's some decent saturation potential in the DGZ, so I'm going with closer to 10 flakes. 18z GFS still fairly bullish with the system FWIW. It's certainly an impressive early season clipper/cold shot...whole pattern has a mid-winter look. Hopefully it's transient...I'm just not in the mood until after turkey day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Euro, if I recall right from past events, tends to have more inconsistencies and underestimates clippers, so I could see the GFS scoring a coup this time (especially with ensembles on board as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 20, 2013 Author Share Posted October 20, 2013 18z GFS with times in CST. Definitely interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Been way too long since we saw a front sided winter. To have the possibility this early makes me excited but the east cost had a massive Halloween blizzard for the 10-11 season beginning... We all know what happened next. Never the less blade and salter will be ready on at least one truck tomorrow night. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 00z suite should be entertaining tonight. EDIT: Might have to go pop some real popcorn lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 CLE's zone forecast for Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) is at least somewhat interesting for mid-week:Tuesday Night: Rain or snow showers likely or a chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.Wednesday: Showers...snow showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.Wednesday Night: Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.Thursday: Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.Thursday Night: Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 GGEM is on board with the GFS. Bullseye, Cyclone, Hawkeye, and maybe Sch. Stormer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 NAM is coming north! Maps coming up... Might have to get popcorn out too if the trend continues LES/R really gets going as the Clipper passes to the southeast. Jacque de Plume for N Indiana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 I'm really excited for you all! Please please take photos if things verify! I don't see any hope on Earth for Toronto to get even mood flakes so this is the closest to the real thing for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 The northern solution is the way to go. The question is what's the flake-age potential... The event in the Plains a few days back is a good benchmark for what you want...Mod-heavier precip, temps in the low to mid-30's and sub-32F wet bulb temps and DP's. The GFS and now the NAM also shows exactly this. Have that work out and someone will see some sort of accumulation, if not a T is the best you will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Taking a look at the 00z MLI NAM sounding shows dew points in the 20's prior to precipitation which will allow the lowest few meters to cool to at least 0C and along with a vertical velocity bullseye within and below the DGZ , its not to shabby for Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Also getting 850's down to -6 and 925mb temps to -2, also not to shabby for October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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