poleshiftnow Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 http://www.accuweather.com/us/radar/sir/us_/radar.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 One has to ask themselves... is this a real representation of what's happening? It's a national composite map, it will always show more precipitation than there actually is... especially snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siesta Key Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Let the hallucinations begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 i noticed this a tad.....and i have relegated this storm as a miss for everyone outside of 1/3 e SNE which still seems most likely a miss. once bitten twice shy will prob. cause most to down play any radar trends that may not be seen even should the plows be coming out in SE mass mon. with that being said i don't think they will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 also nam says......hold on....i'm gonna shift west a bit.......and one more shift or difficulty handling the increased barcolinity off the m. a coast due to that jibber gabber that i can't remember the HPC mentioned earlier this week ...."something to do with SST's inducing deepening and i believe a further NW precip shield" and we could have something plowable for eastern SNE . luring in the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I always love these radar threads during storms that miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Right on time. We always get the hallucination threads with a near miss Wave to the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Weenie time! This reminds me of Jan 25, 2000! Of course I am joking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 One has to ask themselves... is this a real representation of what's happening? It's a national composite map, it will always show more precipitation than there actually is... especially snow. That's easy enough- just look for sfc obs. However, sometimes obs are not available in all areas, there are large gaps in the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 That's easy enough- just look for sfc obs. However, sometimes obs are not available in all areas, there are large gaps in the data. or i think a even better idea is to lurk in the SE regional thread area and look at the obs from those in the area .....to fill the large gaps. there are reports of underforecasted qpf amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 or i think a even better idea is to lurk in the SE regional thread area and look at the obs from those in the area .....to fill the large gaps. there are reports of underforecasted qpf amounts. That would work, too. It's always good to have obs to fill in the blanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 i love these threats, its nice to wave to the snow/rain as it passes by 200 miles to my se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 That would work, too. It's always good to have obs to fill in the blanks. and on a side not looking at the 5h maps shouldn't the main lp be further WEST. how much could convective feedback be retarding the main LP position at hours 30 on the 12z guidance. i.e take the nam shows 1004 mb countour in a heart shaped locaton well east of s.c / n.c . with the lp positioned on the se side .....how easily could this be more toward the NW side of the lower pressures...i.e nearer the western wall of gulf stream.....this doesn't seem that far fetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 OMG! It's snowing in Roanoke and shows it on the radar too!!! QPF looks to be about .0000002 inches per hour!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The only thing to watch right now is the LI/CT region tomorrow night, the norlun signature is very evident on both the 12Z GFS and NAM and especially the GEM at 36 hours (RGEM as well). These things of course often do not develop when you see them modeled, and the setup at 500mb is not exceptionally great with no extreme PVA or vort mximum but the 850mb setup looks pretty classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 http://www.accuweath...r/us_/radar.asp figures... only an accu weather fanatic / weenie could make a post/ threat Like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 the 12z ensembles have a bit more qpf for SNE....is this from a norlun? seems it's the NW extent of CCB shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Why do I have a feeling baroclinic instability is going to look brilliant in regards to what he said 2 days ago in about 6 hours when the 00Z runs are in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Why do I have a feeling baroclinic instability is going to look brilliant in regards to what he said 2 days ago in about 6 hours when the 00Z runs are in? what did he say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 what did he say? That the models were not going to catch on until the absolutet last second with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Why do I have a feeling baroclinic instability is going to look brilliant in regards to what he said 2 days ago in about 6 hours when the 00Z runs are in? You think NYC could see 1-3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 FWIW the 18z NAM puts coastal NJ and SNE back into .25QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 FWIW the 18z NAM puts coastal NJ and SNE back into .25QPF not worth much....just like this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 once again as in last winter so far.. places to the east see better snows vrs western areas... ex.. eastern ct/ eastern long island if anything does occur tonight... with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
listarz Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'll take my dusting (if we get that) and like it...thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'll take my dusting (if we get that) and like it...thank you very much. As will I. This winter just has the overall feeling of 2001-2001 to it. Take what I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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