Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Predict the number of winter storm watches and warnings


usedtobe

Recommended Posts

My numbers are not based on my expectations of the winter.  At this point I don't have any.  If I were to guess on the winter I'd guess we'd get below 15 inches as that is our fate most years, big winters are the exception.  However,  there always are more watches than warnings (sans 2009-2010) and usually a warning more than than really verifies (at least that is my impression based on no statistics). 

My wild ass guesses

 

DCA 3 watches, 2 warnings

IAD   4 watches and 3 warnings.

BWI   4 watches and 3 warnings.

 

The tie breaker should one be needed is the number of times Ji posts a day 7, 8 ,9 or 10 euro that shows a monster snowstorm on it.  I'm guessing 10 but that may be conservative. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think this is a contest with a high chance of a tie, so might I suggest a tiebreaker that will be a little easier for the contest starter to verify :)  I'm not sure you want to comb through every one of Ji's posts from November 1-March 15, Wes...


 


Maybe max snowfall in a single event at each airport?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think this is a contest with a high chance of a tie, so might I suggest a tiebreaker that will be a little easier for the contest starter to verify :) I'm not sure you want to comb through every one of Ji's posts from November 1-March 15, Wes...

Maybe max snowfall in a single event at each airport?

DCA: 3.3"

IAD: 6.6"

BWI: 5.8"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm surprised at some of the BWI guesses. How often does Anne Arundel County get more watches/warnings than Loudoun County? 

 

Miller Bs and clippers enhanced as they exit the coast can sometimes get that area better.  Given what people seem to think the predominant storm track is going to be this winter -- and in recent winters -- it's harder to see BWI cashing in the most of all airports but it does happen for sure.  

 

Honestly, I think my numbers might be too high even though they are low. You do need to factor in the LWX overwarning syndrome though.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Miller Bs and clippers enhanced as they exit the coast can sometimes get that area better.  Given what people seem to think the predominant storm track is going to be this winter -- and in recent winters -- it's harder to see BWI cashing in the most of all airports but it does happen for sure.  

 

Honestly, I think my numbers might be too high even though they are low. You do need to factor in the LWX overwarning syndrome though.  

I'm probably forgetting a bunch of events. I definitely know that in some situations the area of like Harford County, Baltimore County and others right along the M/D line do get warned a lot more than south. 

We are probably in for a pretty meh winter but anything could be better in DC than the past few. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm probably forgetting a bunch of events. I definitely know that in some situations the area of like Harford County, Baltimore County and others right along the M/D line do get warned a lot more than south. 

We are probably in for a pretty meh winter but anything could be better in DC than the past few. 

We said that last year too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Miller Bs and clippers enhanced as they exit the coast can sometimes get that area better.  Given what people seem to think the predominant storm track is going to be this winter -- and in recent winters -- it's harder to see BWI cashing in the most of all airports but it does happen for sure.  

 

Honestly, I think my numbers might be too high even though they are low. You do need to factor in the LWX overwarning syndrome though.  

I'd certainly bet that my numbers are too high.  I thought the contest would be a fun one as you have to take into account the overwatch and warning syndrome....plus the IAD being pretty far west and getting lumped in with some of our western county neighbors on occasion. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...