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NOAA Winter Outlook Delayed


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Hate to say it as an NWS employee and having interest in seasonal scale climate prediction, but the initial CPC winter outlooks have generally been highly inaccurate. Check the verification page and you'll find that basically the only winters close to the outlook in the past 17 years were the late 90s El Nino and La Ninas and the very warm 2005-2006 winter. Most others have been off by a lot. Given that, the 1 month delay could be a good thing, because there's more time to assess the state of the North Pacific, which has a huge role in true Siberian air transport or lack thereof into our Canadian source region.

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Hate to say it as an NWS employee and having interest in seasonal scale climate prediction, but the initial CPC winter outlooks have generally been highly inaccurate. Check the verification page and you'll find that basically the only winters close to the outlook in the past 17 years were the late 90s El Nino and La Ninas and the very warm 2005-2006 winter. Most others have been off by a lot. Given that, the 1 month delay could be a good thing, because there's more time to assess the state of the North Pacific, which has a huge role in true Siberian air transport or lack thereof into our Canadian source region.

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I don't know why the CPC long range forecasts are even public products, they have no skill and do nothing but waste server space.

1 month lead time should be the only release.

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They're trying to make the shutdown hurt as much as possible. It's the strategy...punish the people so that they'll have 2nd thoughts when voting next...sad.

Losing access to the NCDC climate history maps makes this quite evident. Leaving this page up wouldn't use any resources and require no human maintenance, it was intended to inflict maximum inconvenience.

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