The One True 2013-14 Winter Outlook Thread

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

 

I don't subscribe so all I can see is the first sentence or so of his writeup. I sense that maybe he's thinking a warm neutral but no El Niño. Anybody subscribe that can elabora

 

 

Well, that's better than a La Nina. I agree with the warm neutral signal. Maybe it will be enough to keep the southern branch active.

[mackerel_sky]

It's like has been said before, it doesn't matter if the overall winter is warmer than average, it only takes one cold shot and a perfectly timed gulf low! It could be the warmest winter ever, and if we had one , widespread 5-10 inch snow, that's all we would remember about winter 13/14.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

It's like has been said before, it doesn't matter if the overall winter is warmer than average, it only takes one cold shot and a perfectly timed gulf low! It could be the warmest winter ever, and if we had one , widespread 5-10 inch snow, that's all we would remember about winter 13/14.

Yep, However, I don't think it will be the warmest winter ever. It may go down above average as a whole, but there will still be some cold periods. As you said, timing is everything when it comes to winter weather in the south.

[BIG FROSTY]

I'm kinda pumped about this winter after the last two we suffered through.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Without any blocking... you can look for Ohio Valley cutters and CADs....... In my opinion, this winter could feature a major ice storm for someone in the damming zone.

[POWERSTROKE]

Well, that's better than a La Nina. I agree with the warm neutral signal. Maybe it will be enough to keep the southern branch active.

I haven't seen JB or anybody else say we will be in el nino pattern. So that info is wrong. Just sit back and wait and expect nothing and nobody will be disappointed.

[DaculaWeather]

Without any blocking... you can look for Ohio Valley cutters and CADs....... In my opinion, this winter could feature a major ice storm for someone in the damn zone.

Fixed that for you! :-) At least that what it was for us last year!

[calculus1]

I'm kinda pumped about this winter after the last two we suffered through.

 

Me too, Frosty!  Hope springs eternal in early November.  Glad to see you back.  I assume the surgery went well?  Hopefully, you'll be fully recovered by the time the sleds are needed. 

[FallsLake]

There have been some cold winter forecast and some warm winter forecast. I too am optimistic about this winter. You can read all you want but really nobody knows exactly how short term variations will play out. Granted there has been more warm winter predictions lately, but my gut says this is going to be a good winter. We're actually getting close to the time of the year(early December) where many can get winter precip. We need to start taking notice of the indices (NAO, AO, PNA). Currently they are all "bad" for a cold pattern, but a natural swing could occur by early December.  

[WidreMann]

There have been some cold winter forecast and some warm winter forecast. I too am optimistic about this winter. You can read all you want but really nobody knows exactly how short term variations will play out. Granted there has been more warm winter predictions lately, but my gut says this is going to be a good winter. We're actually getting close to the time of the year(early December) where many can get winter precip. We need to start taking notice of the indices (NAO, AO, PNA). Currently they are all "bad" for a cold pattern, but a natural swing could occur by early December.  

I don't know how you can type this with a straight face. The warm winter predictions are based on some pretty solid data, especially the SAI and OPI stuff, which has had great predictive power, especially in recent years. The cold predictions are from weenies or law of averages or woolly worms. I haven't seen any that are anywhere near valid. Any prediction can be wrong, but given the global warming trends, and the recent year trends, I see nothing that indicates this will be anything other than a warm and dry winter. Of course, we could always get a cold spell that gives us a winter storm or two, and that's often all it takes to make it a "good" winter in the SE. Those can't easily be predicted. Aside from that, I think it'd be foolish to expect anything resembling a good winter down here. Just look at the fall pattern we've had for starters.

[GaWx]

I don't know how you can type this with a straight face. The warm winter predictions are based on some pretty solid data, especially the SAI and OPI stuff, which has had great predictive power, especially in recent years. The cold predictions are from weenies or law of averages or woolly worms. I haven't seen any that are anywhere near valid. Any prediction can be wrong, but given the global warming trends, and the recent year trends, I see nothing that indicates this will be anything other than a warm and dry winter. Of course, we could always get a cold spell that gives us a winter storm or two, and that's often all it takes to make it a "good" winter in the SE. Those can't easily be predicted. Aside from that, I think it'd be foolish to expect anything resembling a good winter down here. Just look at the fall pattern we've had for starters.

I agree with much of this and don't feel there's much reason for optimism about a cold winter at this stage. However, I don't think the global warming part of your post is much of a valid point. For one thing, northern hem. winters, overall, have been found to not be warming in recent years. Secondly, even if one figures in the 1-2 degrees of global warming, 1-2 degrees warmer than very cold winters of the past would still be quite cold.

[Bevo]

I don't know how you can type this with a straight face. The warm winter predictions are based on some pretty solid data, especially the SAI and OPI stuff, which has had great predictive power, especially in recent years. The cold predictions are from weenies or law of averages or woolly worms. I haven't seen any that are anywhere near valid. Any prediction can be wrong, but given the global warming trends, and the recent year trends, I see nothing that indicates this will be anything other than a warm and dry winter. Of course, we could always get a cold spell that gives us a winter storm or two, and that's often all it takes to make it a "good" winter in the SE. Those can't easily be predicted. Aside from that, I think it'd be foolish to expect anything resembling a good winter down here. Just look at the fall pattern we've had for starters.

 

Sadly, I agree with Widre - I hope it's proven wrong, but as it stands I'm not too hopeful.

 

It's still early and things could change (and undoubtedly will in one way or another), but to officially forecast a cold winter right now would be to do so without solid data behind it.

[WidreMann]

I agree with much of this and don't feel there's much reason for optimism about a cold winter at this stage. However, I don't think the global warming part of your post is much of a valid point. For one thing, northern hem. winters, overall, have been found to not be warming in recent years. Secondly, even if one figures in the 1-2 degrees of global warming, 1-2 degrees warmer than very cold winters of the past would still be quite cold.

Only if you cherry-pick the starting point to be the massive 97/98 El Nino.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Is it at all possible that we will have a "normal" winter ? Why does it seem like winters are either really cold or really warm ? I would be happy with just "normal" temps and "normal" snowfall. Is that even possible ?

[WidreMann]

Is it at all possible that we will have a "normal" winter ? Why does it seem like winters are either really cold or really warm ? I would be happy with just "normal" temps and "normal" snowfall. Is that even possible ?

No, because there is no normal, just smoothed averages that come from the cold and warm variations.

[metalicwx366]

Disgusting.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41601-analog-approach-to-november-and-beyond/

[FallsLake]

I don't know how you can type this with a straight face. The warm winter predictions are based on some pretty solid data, especially the SAI and OPI stuff, which has had great predictive power, especially in recent years. The cold predictions are from weenies or law of averages or woolly worms. I haven't seen any that are anywhere near valid. Any prediction can be wrong, but given the global warming trends, and the recent year trends, I see nothing that indicates this will be anything other than a warm and dry winter. Of course, we could always get a cold spell that gives us a winter storm or two, and that's often all it takes to make it a "good" winter in the SE. Those can't easily be predicted. Aside from that, I think it'd be foolish to expect anything resembling a good winter down here. Just look at the fall pattern we've had for starters.

My point is there have many winter forecast over the years that have failed. I would say half; which means even trying to make a forecast really is laughable. Now to be fair, there are many more cold forecast (JB, etc.) but even the CPC doesn't do a great job(they always forecast warm or equal chances).

All we can do is look at the current long rang trends for the NAO, PNA, and AO. I suppose we can look at the esno, northern hemisphere snow cover, ocean temps as stable indicators/predictors, but really we can only forecast one month at a time. (then) In the hart of winter, we just need two of the indices(NAO, PNA, AO) to come together for many of us in SE to get a winter storm or two. Like you said for the SE that would suffice.   

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't we have one year recently(2010?) were the AO was predominately positive but we still had a below normal(temps) winter. Basically used Canadian grown cold.  

[Wow]

Nearly all of the predictive elements for seasonal forecasting point to a predominately +AO/+NAO/-PNA pattern.  That's predominate, not wall-to-wall.  There is always the chance getting the biggest snowstorm in a century. 

[tarheelwx]

Robert just made a post on his Facebook page noting the warming in the Pacific, notably in 3.4.  He mentions this could go to warm neutral (and even an outside possibility of weak Nino by mid December).  Nice to have some reputeable experts on the cold/stormy side.

TW

[metalicwx366]

How is that even possible? A weak El Nino by December!? He is a great forecaster, but the chances of a weak El Nino by mid December are 0.01%.

[Brick Tamland]

It is hard enough getting a snow forecast right around here just 24 hours out. I don't know how anyone can get a winter forecast right this far out. I wish it was easy to just sit back and say whatever happens will happen, because saying how winter will be this far out really is just an educated guess. But it is really hard when you are a weather geek and from this area and like snow not to follow every little thing. It is like Charlie Brown trying over and over again to kick the football knowing Lucy is going to pull it away. Yet, he keeps trying, just like we keep trying to see every indication of something that shows we will have a great winter with a mountain of snow. I think it is called insanity.

[fountainguy97]

I don't see how everyone can be calling winter off already.  I mean models have been trending less positive with the NAO and have it below +50 at 11/20. 

 

Now I know that's not the only factor but its a step in the right direction.  Our winter is actually starting to look like a legitimate winter.  Just look at the cold shots we have had already. Here in Greenville NC we hit 32 before Halloween. 

 

It actually may be a good thing to have a bad pattern coming into December.  That gives it plenty of time to flip over to cold during winters best months.

[metalicwx366]

I don't see how everyone can be calling winter off already. I mean models have been trending less positive with the NAO and have it below +50 at 11/20.

Now I know that's not the only factor but its a step in the right direction. Our winter is actually starting to look like a legitimate winter. Just look at the cold shots we have had already. Here in Greenville NC we hit 32 before Halloween.

.

Its still a positive NAO though and by the way, we had stronger cold shots last year around the same time and we saw what happened there.

I don't think anyone is calling off winter.

[Met1985]

Robert just made a post on his Facebook page noting the warming in the Pacific, notably in 3.4.  He mentions this could go to warm neutral (and even an outside possibility of weak Nino by mid December).  Nice to have some reputeable experts on the cold/stormy side.

TW

This is Roberts full Facebook post from last night.

 

Here's the semi-monthly look at Sea Surface Temperature anomalies...we'll take a look twice a month at this through early Winter. We're leaving the last two years of a La Nina pattern and about neutral now, but what's interesting is the Nino 3.4 region (central Equator region in Pacific) is still gradually getting warmer, slightly. So this will be crucial by mid December I think to see if a weak El Nino is born..it could be. The concensus among most forecasters is to stick with a "Neutral" state though, neither la nina nor el nino. It's worth watching. The big standout is the PDO numbers...they keep rising and soon will be zero I think, which means we are also seeing a warmer Pacific. This is a major contrast to the last Two to Three years, and part of the reason a cold Pacific and other factors helped Alaska turn so cold, but the rest of the lower 48 have very warm back to back Winters. You CAN have a cold Winter in the East even in negative PD...O patterns though, with other supporting factors. Looking at the warming Pacific compared to this time last year, and looping the animations, there's no denying the PDO pattern could flip soon...and usually when accompanied by a weak Nino pattern the effects of Winter are really amplified most of the time, in the central to eastern US. But despite that, the next two weeks will see a cold Pacific Trough, and a warming mainland US. That was expected though, since we're coming off a strong negative NAO and blocking pattern. The point of all of this is that all I'm seeing still is very intriguing for snow, cold and storm lovers in the Eastern half of the United States as we get into Winter, so enjoy a warm spell now in November while you can.

[Met1985]

Its still a positive NAO though and by the way, we had stronger cold shots last year around the same time and we saw what happened there.

I don't think anyone is calling off winter.

To be fair if you read some of the other threads they are pretty bleak but it is only November 4th. The telleconnections are looking more favorable after mid month this morning but I would not mind riding November out warm for the pattern to switch in December when winter weather is much more favorable.

[tarheelwx]

To me, getting cold and stormy in November is equivalent to cold and stormy in late March/early April.  What's the use?  Just a waste.  If I could get cold/stormy from Dec 15-Jan 15, I would  be happy with whatever the rest of the winter had in store. 

TW

[FLweather]

To be fair if you read some of the other threads they are pretty bleak but it is only November 4th. The telleconnections are looking more favorable after mid month this morning but I would not mind riding November out warm for the pattern to switch in December when winter weather is much more favorable.

 

Yup some of the best winter storms have followed behind mild Novemebers and Decembers.

The most impressive aspect to me is the current SST. I see some good similarities between the current time frame and some of the good snow years.

[GaWx]

How is that even possible? A weak El Nino by December!? He is a great forecaster, but the chances of a weak El Nino by mid December are 0.01%.

 

Based on the patterns preceding the last 38 Ninos, I'm putting chances for a weak Nino by this winter at no more than 1% with the chances steadily dwindling toward zero. The latest 3.4 weekly came in at -0.2, STILL in neutral negative territory though up from -0.4. For the 38 Ninos, the preceding August 3.4 was already positive. Yet, here we are in early November still waiting for it to go positive!

[Cold Rain]

Based on the patterns preceding the last 38 Ninos, I'm putting chances for a weak Nino by this winter at no more than 1% with the chances steadily dwindling toward zero. The latest 3.4 weekly came in at -0.2, STILL in neutral negative territory though up from -0.4. For the 38 Ninos, the preceding August 3.4 was already positive. Yet, here we are in early November still waiting for it to go positive!

Putting the numerical description of El Nino and La Nina aside, the question is, how does the background state of the atmosphere behave? Is it currently behaving like a Nina or Nino? Or is it currently behaving like neither are in place (and neither are, going by the numerical values).

And how is the background state of the atmosphere expected to look if 3.4 continues to warm slightly? Will it act more Nino-ish? Or will any warming there be irrelevant until it hits a specific numerical value which would label it as an "official" El Nino?

I bring up those questions because year after year, there is always quibbling about numerical values of indexes and what they will mean to our weather. People love to point out how the NAO is about to go negative and get all excited. But if Canada is flooded with mild air or if the NAO sets up east-based, then the negative sign and the magnitude of it have little impact in bringing us cold an snow.

If I remember right (and someone correct me if I'm wrong here), last year, we had a neutral ENSO winter, but the atmosphere behaved Nina-ish, which I'm sure was attributable to both carry-over from the previous year's Nina and other factors acting on it (-PDO, +NAO, cold stratosphere, etc.).

So currently, is the background state of the atmosphere behaving in an El Nino, La Nina, or El Nada manner, and how is that likely to evolve throughout the winter, assuming slight warming of ENSO, which seems to be the most likely outcome at this time?

[Wow]

I think the PDO is around neutral now.  The warm pool in the North Central Pacific which has held on all year is finally breaking down while the warm anomalies are shifting east toward the GOA.  That GOA cold pool which briefly resurfaced has vanished.  Those cold anomalies in the GOA has been a stubborn feature in recent winter seasons. You have to go back to 2002 during our last solidly +PDO winter season.  Let's hope this trend continues, and hopes of a +ENSO event come true.  A +PDO will certainly help it along.