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December 21-22 inverted trough/retro precip midweek threat


MaineJayhawk

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A couple inches will do me fine.

For whatever reason the trend on the EC has been to lose it at 12z and come back at 00z. If I remember correctly yesterday's 12z run didn't have much at all from the trough. So if you want to look at this through rose-colored glasses at least it's an improvement on its previous 12z run. :nerdsmiley:
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Yeah its actually trying to back in some precip to E MA on late Monday and Tuesday....complex setup.1-2" for Wednesday for eastern areas.

I don't know if I completely buy that, but it doesn't seem that unrealistic with the closed low underneath us. The only thing I don't like is how the actual ULL moves east. I'd rather see it slow a little, but I guess the cyclonic flow at H5 is enough to keep precip going near the Cape.

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For whatever reason the trend on the EC has been to lose it at 12z and come back at 00z. If I remember correctly yesterday's 12z run didn't have much at all from the trough. So if you want to look at this through rose-colored glasses at least it's an improvement on its previous 12z run. :nerdsmiley:

What I take from that is that the Euro isn't consistent and cannot be trusted. I am glad, as you point out, that 12z today is an improvement over 12z yesterday. I guess I'll hope for a QPF bomb at 0z. lol

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I don't know if I completely buy that, but it doesn't seem that unrealistic with the closed low underneath us. The only thing I don't like is how the actual ULL moves east. I'd rather see it slow a little, but I guess the cyclonic flow at H5 is enough to keep precip going near the Cape.

I like how the ULL moves underneath us. Definitely more fun things can happen vs when it tries to go right over us or just north. I don't expect anything crazy, but it wouldn't be surprising to see some steadier bands (even if light) get going near the coast or even inland a little bit...esp as little vortmaxima rotate around...there's a little one that rotates in Monday night which is probably helping keep the precip going.

Obviously all these features are never easy to forecast, but at least it will make it worth watching radar trends, etc, for the next few days. I think what we want is a stronger vortmax rotating SW down the coast of Maine at the same time that potent shortwave comes in from the midwest....they can sort of work in tandem if the timing is right which is what the 00z run tried to do...and it gave some pretty decent snows for a lot of the area.

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I like how the ULL moves underneath us. Definitely more fun things can happen vs when it tries to go right over us or just north. I don't expect anything crazy, but it wouldn't be surprising to see some steadier bands (even if light) get going near the coast or even inland a little bit...esp as little vortmaxima rotate around...there's a little one that rotates in Monday night which is probably helping keep the precip going.

Obviously all these features are never easy to forecast, but at least it will make it worth watching radar trends, etc, for the next few days. I think what we want is a stronger vortmax rotating SW down the coast of Maine at the same time that potent shortwave comes in from the midwest....they can sort of work in tandem if the timing is right which is what the 00z run tried to do...and it gave some pretty decent snows for a lot of the area.

I agree. The 12z euro lost the strong vortmax coming down, but as you said...forecasting these features will be difficult in this pattern.

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