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December 21-22 inverted trough/retro precip midweek threat


MaineJayhawk

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Pretty considerable qpf thrown back into eastern New England during late Tuesday night through early Thursday on the Euro. Solid advisory snow for all of eastern SNE to even possible low end warning criteria if that panned out.

I forgot this thread was even here. The Euro is pretty sweet up here. Not sure if your WSI QPF maps match up to the ones I see, but it looks like 0.50"+ (maybe 0.75"ish?) up my way. Verbatim it'd probably be only an advisory given the duration. I like the EC vortmax track moving W to E right over NYC to help sustain the sfc trough a little longer over CNE.
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Hard to get too excited when we're still about 3 days out. It's like we're trying to run up a "down" escalator. If/when its does really wrap back in here, I'm afraid we're going to see significant marine-temperature contamination. In yesterday's PM AFD, Caribou was talking about a changeover to rain as far north as Presque Isle.

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I think the EURO gives me about 5" of snow over about a 30 hour stretch centered on Wednesday; I'd take it, but these inverted trough setups always strike me as nebulous at best and akin to chasing a pot of snow at the end of the rainbow.... hopefully that is a misperception on my part.

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yeah...never going to work out like that but shows what kind of week we are in store for....wintry.

I've had enough model snow. The real thing keeps getting pushed back. I'd be very cautious if this was a more conventional setup at this range, so I'm certainly not going to go bonkers over an inverted trough at 72 hours.

I guess it'll definitely be "wintry" in the sense that the days will continue to be short and we'll have the solstice....

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I think the EURO gives me about 5" of snow over about a 30 hour stretch centered on Wednesday; I'd take it, but these inverted trough setups always strike me as nebulous at best and akin to chasing a pot of snow at the end of the rainbow.... hopefully that is a misperception on my part.

Great analogy. These things certainly can produce, but in my experience it's most often a nice short-term (and localized) surprise. Tough to hang your hat on them for widespread accumulation, especially at this range.

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