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December 21-22 inverted trough/retro precip midweek threat


MaineJayhawk

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12z GFS shifted a bit more toward the 00z Euro with better inverted trough signal. We're still kind of far out on this...a good 4+ days, so there's obviously a lot that can still wrong in this relatively fragile setup.

I think most would be happy with a couple inches...enough to give a white Christmas.

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12z GFS shifted a bit more toward the 00z Euro with better inverted trough signal. We're still kind of far out on this...a good 4+ days, so there's obviously a lot that can still wrong in this relatively fragile setup.

I think most would be happy with a couple inches...enough to give a white Christmas.

yes indeed! a perfect white christmas is 2-3 inches of snow while litely falling christmas eve :snowman: .

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I think many are snake bitten, but the pattern for Christmas is probably one of the better ones that we've seen in a while. Rather good agreement of some sort of cstl low this far out.

Gotta get back on the horse...despite model busts. Like last February when nobody would forecast more than a few sloppy inches for the interior after that Feb 10 bust, and then we got hammered.

I think this inverted trough can provide a decent consolation prize. It would be nice to see a couple inches of snow to get us back in the seasonal spirit. Obviously we still have a few days before verification.

As for Christmas, we may still be too suppressed with the blocking vortex to our north, but we could easily see something too. As I posted the analog dates in the pattern thread, there were certainly some heavy hitters in there...so we got a chance.

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Gotta get back on the horse...despite model busts. Like last February when nobody would forecast more than a few sloppy inches for the interior after that Feb 10 bust, and then we got hammered.

I think this inverted trough can provide a decent consolation prize. It would be nice to see a couple inches of snow to get us back in the seasonal spirit. Obviously we still have a few days before verification.

As for Christmas, we may still be too suppressed with the blocking vortex to our north, but we could easily see something too. As I posted the analog dates in the pattern thread, there were certainly some heavy hitters in there...so we got a chance.

Yeah I'm hopeful for a couple of inches on Tuesday Night. That's fine with me, I haven't even seen the ground whitened yet so any snow cover would be great.

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I think many are snake bitten, but the pattern for Christmas is probably one of the better ones that we've seen in a while. Rather good agreement of some sort of cstl low this far out.

Keep talking dirty to me.

It's winter and it snows in winter ... sooner or later. The models aren't always going to be as atrocious as they were last week. Maybe they're right about this. Hopefully the Euro signs on to it.

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Keep talking dirty to me.

It's winter and it snows in winter ... sooner or later. The models aren't always going to be as atrocious as they were last week. Maybe they're right about this. Hopefully the Euro signs on to it.

I feel sort of like I did after Game 3 of the '04 ALCS: completely disgusted and drained of hope, vowing I wouldn't even watch the next game. Of course, by first pitch the next night I was right back in the saddle.

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Keep talking dirty to me.

It's winter and it snows in winter ... sooner or later. The models aren't always going to be as atrocious as they were last week. Maybe they're right about this. Hopefully the Euro signs on to it.

That's the spirit. One day soon there will be much rejoicing.

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I feel sort of like I did after Game 3 of the '04 ALCS: completely disgusted and drained of hope, vowing I wouldn't even watch the next game. Of course, by first pitch the next night I was right back in the saddle.

Yup, same here. As soon as there was something else after the failed HECS to be interested in I took my clothes off and jumped right in. If I lived someplace where it doesn't snow much and had the rug pulled out from under me like that then I'd probably still be curled up in a fetal position. But we live where it snows and there'll be other chances coming down the pike in short order.

That's the spirit. One day soon there will be much rejoicing.

Amen. cross.gif

Just need to get that first region-wide snow in the books and that'll soothe the restless natives.

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Yup, same here. As soon as there was something else after the failed HECS to be interested in I took my clothes off and jumped right in. If I lived someplace where it doesn't snow much and had the rug pulled out from under me like that then I'd probably still be curled up in a fetal position. But we live where it snows and there'll be other chances coming down the pike in short order.

Amen. cross.gif

Just need to get that first region-wide snow in the books and that'll soothe the restless natives.

Yes, Brother Eric, that is the word of Ullr.

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Keep talking dirty to me.

It's winter and it snows in winter ... sooner or later. The models aren't always going to be as atrocious as they were last week. Maybe they're right about this. Hopefully the Euro signs on to it.

That's about all I'm gonna say. It could be a suppressed piece of crap too, but I like some of the players on the field. However, these players have to perform. They could also perform like the 2010 Beckett.

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That's about all I'm gonna say. It could be a suppressed piece of crap too, but I like some of the players on the field. However, these players have to perform. They could also perform like the 2010 Beckett.

Understood. We're still at moneypitmike range til this would occur so can't get too involved. I will say I DO NOT LIKE being in the bullseye right now. lol.

And to keep it on topic, I'm feeling pretty good about the midweek potential. Might only be an inch or two but that would be a nice appetizer for the Xmas weekend KU that I'm not particularly jazzed up for attm.

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Gotta get back on the horse...despite model busts. Like last February when nobody would forecast more than a few sloppy inches for the interior after that Feb 10 bust, and then we got hammered.

I think this inverted trough can provide a decent consolation prize. It would be nice to see a couple inches of snow to get us back in the seasonal spirit. Obviously we still have a few days before verification.

As for Christmas, we may still be too suppressed with the blocking vortex to our north, but we could easily see something too. As I posted the analog dates in the pattern thread, there were certainly some heavy hitters in there...so we got a chance.

4177f27e-f6d7-c884.jpg

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Euro lost the snow.lol.

Yeah that's ugly looking. Though it didn't have much yesterday at 12z and then it brought it back in the 00z run.

Actually it does have a little at 102h....at any rate, these inverted troughs are always fickle and you usually don't know whats happening until really close in.

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Yeah that's ugly looking. Though it didn't have much yesterday at 12z and then it brought it back in the 00z run.

Actually it does have a little at 102h....at any rate, these inverted troughs are always fickle and you usually don't know whats happening until really close in.

Even the H5 depiction is different. The 00z had a real nice looking closed low going underneath us. I agree though, these things are fickle so they probably will come and go on runs.

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Yeah that's ugly looking. Though it didn't have much yesterday at 12z and then it brought it back in the 00z run.

Actually it does have a little at 102h....at any rate, these inverted troughs are always fickle and you usually don't know whats happening until really close in.

I will hold the ball, you kick. The amazing discontinuity in runs continues.

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