dryslot Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think conservative is too friendly a term.. Consistently wrong is a better description. IMO there are 20+ non-mets in this thread that could make a better forecast. Last night a good example.. They had the forecast right with little or no accumulation.. then for some reason in the evening they bumped me to 1-2".. which of course never came. I'm just glad I'm not a snow plow operator or some other job where these poor forecasts would cost me money. There are mets from that office on here, And i am not going to bash any met period, I would not want there job to have to make calls that others depend on, Thats for sure........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Haven't seen qpf maps, but looks like gfs is a lol drier than nam. I feel good for 2-4 wed/thur. They are, Cut in half, .25" qpf........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Haven't seen qpf maps, but looks like gfs is a lol drier than nam. I feel good for 2-4 wed/thur. It is a little drier, but has the most precip for this event then it ever has. I just fall under the .5-.7, which would match up with the NAM for at least a 3-6 inch snowfall. You are under .25-.5, which we hope is the upper end of. If you consider your inch of snow yesterday totaled less or about .10, this will be much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 There are mets from that office on here, And i am not going to bash any met period, I would not want there job to have to make calls that others depend on, Thats for sure........... Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I would go with a NAM/GFS compromise, but with probably 3/4 leaning towards the NAM. So with that said I would go with 0.5" of QPF for Cape Cod, MA, especially far northeastern tip of the Cape from Orleans to Provincetown WED night into Thursday, 0.35-0.40" of QPF from Hyannis, MA to Chatham, MA and then 0.20-0.35" of QPF from Hyannis to the Canal. So in general a good 2-6" of snow for the Cape and Islands as the 9z SREF have continued to increase probs for the region. WWA from Bourne to Chatham, with warning possible for Orleans to Provincetown. Right now should go with a watch for Barnstable county to cover this potential. Or even a SPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Keeping an eye on the band of ... something (rain/snow?) that is stretching northeast from Lewiston. GYX bumped possible accums for today upward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Keeping an eye on the band of ... something (rain/snow?) that is stretching northeast from Lewiston. GYX bumped possible accums for today upward. Me too, haha. Right now it is falling as snow flurries, so I hope that continues. I wonder how much that feature holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Me too, haha. Right now it is falling as snow flurries, so I hope that continues. I wonder how much that feature holds together. I dunno. It'd be a total b**ch if it effed up the commute again tonight. Looks like it might be nosing in towards PWM right now. I think the surface temps here may be warm ... haven't checked lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Maybe some boundary layer concerns for the Cape and Islands for tomorrow afternoon into Thursday. Perhaps why no one is going nuts on the NAM and GFS QPF numbers for me area, roughly between .40-.60". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I dunno. It'd be a total b**ch if it effed up the commute again tonight. Looks like it might be nosing in towards PWM right now. I think the surface temps here may be warm ... haven't checked lately. Yeah, it won't be like that, everyone is betwen 36 and 39 right now. If it comes down hard enough though, they will drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro looks better for the trough. Maybe 1-2" for eastern areas. Maybe 1" for Kev and Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro looks better for the trough. Maybe 1-2" for eastern areas. Maybe 1" for Kev and Will? Nice we'll take it, Sounds very Nammish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro looks better for the trough. Maybe 1-2" for eastern areas. Maybe 1" for Kev and Will? Thanks, I was just going to ask for euro qpf. Is that 1-2" valid here as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thanks, I was just going to ask for euro qpf. Is that 1-2" valid here as well? I would hope we are more than that. That is all the way down to CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Is it wrong to be more excited for the trough than the Sunday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Is it wrong to be more excited for the trough than the Sunday storm? That is exactly what I was just thinking since people are saying the Euro blew up the Sunday one. I want to get through one event at a time, and it doesn't help that the GFS is on the shtter for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Lots of sn melting out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Lots of sn melting out there. Warmish here too. Was the 1-2" from the Euro valid for up this way also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Keeping an eye on the band of ... something (rain/snow?) that is stretching northeast from Lewiston. GYX bumped possible accums for today upward. Its RN...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Warmish here too. Was the 1-2" from the Euro valid for up this way also? Looked like 3-5 deal perhaps up that way. Gotta watch temps for low elevations, but it I think it's ok. 850 T's cool a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Warmish here too. Was the 1-2" from the Euro valid for up this way also? There ia a strip of .50" qpf that runs west to east thats about 50 miles wide prob from wtvl to just below lew and the rest of the state is .25" qpf.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Scott how is QPF on the EURO for Cape Cod, MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thanks for the qpf figures, guys. I suspected it'd be higher than 1-2" but didn't want to be a total weenie about it. I'll keep my 2-4" guestimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Scott how is QPF on the EURO for Cape Cod, MA? Looked like maybe a couple of inches. Hopefully it's cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 This thread is going to become a total ghost town with the HECS coming on the weekend. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This thread is going to become a total ghost town with the HECS coming on the weekend. lol Yep. One at a time for me (and I'm not expecting much out of Wednesday night!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This thread is going to become a total ghost town with the HECS coming on the weekend. lol I am staying faithful to here as long as my event is coming tomorrow. At least I am confident that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I am staying faithful to here as long as my event is coming tomorrow. At least I am confident that will happen. Looks like the next one is coming, But we would have some BL issues with that surface low placement up here verbatium on the Euro, SE winds........ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks like the next one is coming, But we would have some BL issues with that surface low placement up here verbatium on the Euro, SE winds........ftl At least its not NW winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 I am staying faithful to here as long as my event is coming tomorrow. At least I am confident that will happen. Yep, looking good for our biggest storm since MLK I believe. And that's pretty pathetic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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