nutmegfriar Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 no...maybe some flurries. I've been riding the Sunday train for a few days though Outside has the feel that it's about to dump snow but it's just not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Outside has the feel that it's about to dump snow but it's just not happening. I know what you mean. Had that feeling since yesterday. Light snow started to fall last night, and is now coming down at a decent clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I can see where today is one of those days where it falls as -SN all day just to accum 1".......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I can see where today is one of those days where it falls as -SN all day just to accum 1".......... NAM looks robust for you Wed Thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Man the NAM really wants this trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Man the NAM really wants this trough. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 NAM says Ryan should have at least mentioned accumulating snow for northern Ct Wed/Wed nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 NAM looks robust for you Wed Thurs Yeah ginx, It looks to be more for thurs now, .50" qpf...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Impressive..now we just need Gray to get past a 50% chance of snow and bite on a solution similar to this. I hope the GFS comes back with at least .25-.5 for the event in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Impressive..now we just need Gray to get past a 50% chance of snow and bite on a solution similar to this. I hope the GFS comes back with at least .25-.5 for the event in Maine. If they do, It will be last minute, They are very conservative, I wish they were more like the CAR office....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just got out of a meeting and saw the NAM ... me likey. It sure is persistent with this trough. Just hoping for 3" ... got one of 'em last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If they do, It will be last minute, They are very conservative, I wish they were more like the CAR office....... Me too..they seem to be ignoring the NAM completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Me too..they seem to be ignoring the NAM completely. In yesterday morning's AFD I believe they said exactly that. They were riding with the GFS. Hopefully the 12z runs will change their minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 In yesterday morning's AFD I believe they said exactly that. They were riding with the GFS. Hopefully the 12z runs will change their minds. That was a great decision yesterday with the wild squalls that caused massive car accidents in Portland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The NAM would seem to want 2-5 or 3-6" of snow on Thursday for Cape Cod, MA. After a little bit of a warm period between now and tomorrow afternoon the column cools and we turn to snow, with perhaps 3-6" of snow and a potential WWA or low end WSW headlines. Maybe TAN will actually go with the NAM more then the GFS and not get caught off guard. Anyways I would like to see how warm we get today and tomorrow and see if we get any melting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Me too..they seem to be ignoring the NAM completely. Which is idiotic given it's performance with this system to date. The GFS/Eh model/UK - even the EC were lackluster with QPF while the NAM hit it hard and was more right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wow... 12z NAM crushes the northern Greens. Up to 1" QPF in the upslope region and Green Mtn spine, also in the northern slope of the Whites near Bretton Woods... with widespread .5-.75" amounts elsewhere in the northern half of VT and NH. If this is anywhere close to correct, with the high ratio snow we've been seeing in these events, the NAM at face value is indicating a Warning level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wow... 12z NAM crushes the northern Greens. Up to 1" QPF in the upslope region and Green Mtn spine with widespread .5-.75" amounts elsewhere in the northern half of VT. If this is anywhere close to correct, with the high ratio snow we've been seeing in these events, the NAM at face value is indicating a Warning level event. Yeah I was thinking the same thing for the Whites as well. This could be a widespread snow for all of eastern MA, NH, VT, and all of ME. I bet you there will be advisories with these at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS is finally coming along to an extent. Hint of a pinch off at 500mb, will get it right within the next two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah I was thinking the same thing for the Whites as well. This could be a widespread snow for all of eastern MA, NH, VT, and all of ME. I bet you there will be advisories with these at some point. I've seen some weird stuff happen up here when synoptic moisture interacts with upslope flow but there's no way we get the QPF the NAM is showing. Even at your basic 10:1 ratios, that's a 5-10" snowfall for the northern third of VT.... and if we get the usual upslope 20:1 or 30:1 ratios then that's a heck of a lot of snow. No way in hell does that much QPF get wrung out of the sky. I bet BTV's local WRF model will look interesting once it updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Which is idiotic given it's performance with this system to date. The GFS/Eh model/UK - even the EC were lackluster with QPF while the NAM hit it hard and was more right. They really hug the GFS like a lot of tv mets.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 at 500mb i think the track is going to be a little north as depicted right at this moment for areas south of the MA Pike. I tend to think this is a northern/central new england special and maybe cape anne. But we will see. The rest of us trace to an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS is finally coming along to an extent. Hint of a pinch off at 500mb, will get it right within the next two runs. Always late to the party it seems in the end..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS is finally coming along to an extent. Hint of a pinch off at 500mb, will get it right within the next two runs. 12Z GFS is beautiful for Maine! It finally is in almost perfect agreement with the lobe rotating westward as the NAM. Time for advisories this evening Gray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS looks like an inch maybe 2 on the coast for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If they do, It will be last minute, They are very conservative, I wish they were more like the CAR office....... I think conservative is too friendly a term.. Consistently wrong is a better description. IMO there are 20+ non-mets in this thread that could make a better forecast. Last night a good example.. They had the forecast right with little or no accumulation.. then for some reason in the evening they bumped me to 1-2".. which of course never came. I'm just glad I'm not a snow plow operator or some other job where these poor forecasts would cost me money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS looks like an inch maybe 2 on the coast for Wednesday. unless it ticks south on all models I can see this being a snow tease in a lot of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS looks like an inch maybe 2 on the coast for Wednesday. Why even bother with it? Nam has accumulating snow for all..ride the hot hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Haven't seen qpf maps, but looks like gfs is a llittle drier than nam. I feel good for 2-4 wed/thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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