ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah I don't get. I thought it would look similar to 12z at first. Well hopefully it doesn't do that in the future. It has moisture rotating SW from Maine at least...we'll see as we get closer. We saw the GFS lack the Maine energy but handled the lakes s/w fine...Euro is the reverse. But both mean less precip of course...we need them to work in tandem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 So in other words there really isn't any inverted trough on the Euro it sounds like... Yeah I don't get. I thought it would look similar to 12z at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 So in other words there really isn't any inverted trough on the Euro it sounds like... It's a very weak signal. The vortmax forcing the inv trough is there in Maine, but we don't get the second vortmax coming from the Great Lakes to enhance the trough and assoc moisture with it. The second vortmax causes additional divergence and instability with falling heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Well hopefully it doesn't do that in the future. It has moisture rotating SW from Maine at least...we'll see as we get closer. We saw the GFS lack the Maine energy but handled the lakes s/w fine...Euro is the reverse. But both mean less precip of course...we need them to work in tandem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Gonna be a scraper at worst, actually....good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looks like a hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Gonna be a scraper at worst, actually....good run. I originally thought it could whiff but looks like it comes right north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I originally thought it could whiff but looks like it comes right north! I know....I thought whiff, but looks like a hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Jan 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looks like a hugger. The weekend storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Kind of odd soloution....originally looked like a whiff, then a hugger, but it veers to the ene after threatening to pull a Jan 2000.....not a bad run, but I think alot of us would want it east a bit....not w ne, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Tracks from Montauk Point to Chatham....Logan11 Leveler.....Ski MRG slammer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Kind of odd soloution....originally looked like a whiff, then a hugger, but it veers to the ene after threatening to pull a Jan 2000.....not a bad run, but I think alot of us would want it east a bit....not w ne, though. Wrong thread...we're in the other one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looks similar, at lease at the surface, but the 500mb setup is nowhere near as good. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_slp_084m.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1990/us0225.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 The wacky NAM at 6z still insists on a nice hit for most of New England. 6z GFS says no way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The wacky NAM at 6z still insists on a nice hit for most of New England. 6z GFS says no way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah--with the exception of the extreme eastern coastline, Mass/CT has gone from wide-spread warning to sub advisory snows. At least it would provide much needed freshening of the ground. Remember ruile number one: some snow is always better than no snow. 16.6/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The wacky NAM at 6z still insists on a nice hit for most of New England. 6z GFS says no way. GFS is alone on this one. Obviously the NAM was too heavy yesterday..but we shpuld be able to get light snows back to the NY border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah--with the exception of the extreme eastern coastline, Mass/CT has gone from wide-spread warning to sub advisory snows. At least it would provide much needed freshening of the ground. Remember ruile number one: some snow is always better than no snow. 16.6/11 Good rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GFS is alone on this one. Obviously the NAM was too heavy yesterday..but we shpuld be able to get light snows back to the NY border Box has significantly upped the chance for snow here. Still a 50/50 deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Box has significantly upped the chance for snow here. Still a 50/50 deal. GGEM/NAM are decent advisory snows.,..GFS/Euro not as much..with the GFS giving nothing yet that's what they'll run with since it's the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Box has significantly upped the chance for snow here. Still a 50/50 deal. Adiditonally, we have one fo the few (first??) times this season in which the forecast is showing two snow events in it. With respect to the Tuesday night/Wednesday periods, I find it interesting they use "snow" and not "snow showers". I suspect that'll change; maybe they were pressed for space. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GGEM/NAM are decent advisory snows.,..GFS/Euro not as much..with the GFS giving nothing yet that's what they'll run with since it's the GFS I don't see the 06NAM as adivsory. I'd put it in the sub-advisory category. I think CWEAT will recommend reducing the NAM qpf and offer a few hundreths. I'd love advisory snows. I think the only advisory's we've had so far this season were of the "mix" variety. EDIT: Above excludes east coast/ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GGEM/NAM are decent advisory snows.,..GFS/Euro not as much..with the GFS giving nothing yet that's what they'll run with since it's the GFS Wow, that's quite a duo to have on our side. The NAM is such a tease, I'm not sure I want to get BB over anything it portrays. Adiditonally, we have one fo the few (first??) times this season in which the forecast is showing two snow events in it. With respect to the Tuesday night/Wednesday periods, I find it interesting they use "snow" and not "snow showers". I suspect that'll change; maybe they were pressed for space. lol The AFD was underwhelming and ALB's forecast for adjacent zones looks rather lackluster. Such a fickle thing. Like you, I'll be happy with a refresher. The couple inches on the ground now should have no problem surviving this week but a little more for insurance would be good. Just glad a White Christmas is a virtual lock here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It looks like BOS may come very close to the 303 day record of longest time between measurable snows. Last chances: Tues/Wed. If we don't get that, then even if the 12/25-6 storm happens we may at least tie depending on the ultimate timing.....gonna be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It looks like BOS may come very close to the 303 day record of longest time between measurable snows. Last chances: Tues/Wed. If we don't get that, then even if the 12/25-6 storm happens we may at least tie depending on the ultimate timing.....gonna be close. A dubious honor. Hope that record bid ends up being a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The AFD was underwhelming and ALB's forecast for adjacent zones looks rather lackluster. Such a fickle thing. Like you, I'll be happy with a refresher. The couple inches on the ground now should have no problem surviving this week but a little more for insurance would be good. Just glad a White Christmas is a virtual lock here. From ALY AFD. Who the hell wrote this????? lol THE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z OPERATIONAL NAM RUN WHICH INDICATED MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD MOISTURE SPREADING WESTWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE 06Z NAM RUN HAS ALREADY BACKED OFF THIS GLOOMY SCENARIO AND IT IS BACK TO FORECASTING THAT SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 From ALY AFD. Who the hell wrote this????? lol THE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z OPERATIONAL NAM RUN WHICH INDICATED MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD MOISTURE SPREADING WESTWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE 06Z NAM RUN HAS ALREADY BACKED OFF THIS GLOOMY SCENARIO AND IT IS BACK TO FORECASTING THAT SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. Grounds for a summary execution in my book. You never know where a snow hater will be able to infiltrate. They should use better screening procedures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 For really short term guidance, which has done quite well for central/northern Maine is the HRRR model (it nailed the northeastern Aroostook rainstorm from a couple of weeks ago when the other guidance insisted all snow even within 12 hours of the event). It only goes out 15 hours, but it gives some hints at what may be in store. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 A dubious honor. Hope that record bid ends up being a fail. I want the record. This much suffering must bring me something tangible. 1999-00 was the winter of the record. 1st measurable that year believe it or not was 1/12/00! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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