MaineJayhawk Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 All of New England is hanging their collective heads in their beer over the missed opportunity with the weekend system. Some of us, however, may be fortunate enough to get snow on Tuesday into Wednesday as the system sends an inverted trough into the area. Discuss it ... here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 All of New England is hanging their collective heads in their beer over the missed opportunity with the weekend system. Some of us, however, may be fortunate enough to get snow on Tuesday into Wednesday as the system sends an inverted trough into the area. Discuss it ... here! NWS says no snow for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 NWS says no snow for me. Has it come to this now? A separate thread for what for some might be at best a couple inches 3.5 days away ( more for the Cape)? We have become a pathetic bunch haven't we? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 NWS says no snow for me. Where does the friar live? It's in Connecticut, perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Has it come to this now? A separate thread for what for some might be at best a couple inches 3.5 days away ( more for the Cape)? We have become a pathetic bunch haven't we? lol Could be more, especially near the coast and in Maine. (Hmmmmm ....) Most modeling is spitting out 3-5" amounts east of ORH. Here's dendrite's Euro QPF 00z EC inv trof QPF 0.50" line...EFK-LCI-ASH-ORH-TAN 0.25" line...PBG-VSF-BAF-BDL-GON 0.10" line...ALB-DXR-BDR Not an insignificant system for many (advisory-level) and the largest event of the year, sadly enough. I'm all in. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 6z GFS really lightened the QPF, I will note. Only Maine sees any snow of over 1" on that run. Here's hoping it's incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Could be more, especially near the coast and in Maine. (Hmmmmm ....) Most modeling is spitting out 3-5" amounts east of ORH. Here's dendrite's Euro QPF 00z EC inv trof QPF 0.50" line...EFK-LCI-ASH-ORH-TAN 0.25" line...PBG-VSF-BAF-BDL-GON 0.10" line...ALB-DXR-BDR Not an insignificant system for many (advisory-level) and the largest event of the year, sadly enough. I'm all in. lol Point taken. II was looking at the GFS's qpf depictions. On those EC ones, I guess I'm in the .10" zone. Nothing like the possibility of an inverterted trof three days out to garner excitement.. Hopefully there will be surprises for those in the congested areas and for the ME folk. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 6z GFS really lightened the QPF, I will note. Only Maine sees any snow of over 1" on that run. Here's hoping it's incorrect. Quick, close the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Quick, close the thread. NO RADIO SHOWS!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Could be more, especially near the coast and in Maine. (Hmmmmm ....) Most modeling is spitting out 3-5" amounts east of ORH. Here's dendrite's Euro QPF 00z EC inv trof QPF 0.50" line...EFK-LCI-ASH-ORH-TAN 0.25" line...PBG-VSF-BAF-BDL-GON 0.10" line...ALB-DXR-BDR Not an insignificant system for many (advisory-level) and the largest event of the year, sadly enough. I'm all in. lol Yeah that would be a solid 2-4 or 3-6 inch event from Danbury on Northeast with even more closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The GFS and euro are very different at 500mb which is why we see the different outcomes. Here is the euro. Note the euro has a closed H5 low going south of sne. This enhances the qpf and trough that rotate down. In fact, you would almost think a mini low would form due to the H5 pattern. Pretty conducive to cyclogenesis. Note how the trough progresses in 24 hrs. Euro 96hrs Euro 120 hrs Now look at the gfs at h500mb. It has the trough coming south, but is way flatter and therefore has little qpf over the region. So these are the differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Yeah that would a solid 2-4 or 3-6 inch event from Danbury on Northeast with even more closer to the coast Kevin.....with .10 at DXR, how do you come up with a "solid 2" in Danbury? I would equate that to perhaps an inch, probably less given the duration of time it will take for that .1 to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 After what just happened tough to put too much stock in any model..but even so I'm glad it's the Euro showing it and not the GFS..Potetntial is certainly there for a nice snowfall for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 After what just happened tough to put too much stock in any model..but even so I'm glad it's the Euro showing it and not the GFS..Potetntial is certainly there for a nice snowfall for all of us They're the only models we've got. We can either love them or we can leave them. I'll choose to love them. Could be a sneaky nice snow for some. I like the potential for up here for sure. GFS was more potent at 0z, so I'll toss the 6z result. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 They're the only models we've got. We can either love them or we can leave them. I'll choose to love them. Could be a sneaky nice snow for some. I like the potential for up here for sure. GFS was more potent at 0z, so I'll toss the 6z result. lol I remain skeptical. We've been talking about this "sneaky" inverted trough consolation prize for a couple days already, and it's still 3 days away. It's hard enough to pin these things down 12 hours in advance. As has been the case so far this season, I can certainly see areas farther downeast doing OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Perhaps someone will start the Christmas storm threat thread soon as well? Me likey very very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 After what just happened tough to put too much stock in any model..but even so I'm glad it's the Euro showing it and not the GFS..Potetntial is certainly there for a nice snowfall for all of us Norluns might be ocean VD, but it's the only VD we've got (hopefully). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Perhaps someone will start the Christmas storm threat thread soon as well? Me likey very very much I recommend keeping that in the banter thread for another day or two to see if it's a bonafide threat. Especially since there's the possible minor event mid-week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I recommend keeping that in the banter thread for another day or two to see if it's a bonafide threat. Especially since there's the possible minor event mid-week. Noted. It does look intriguing though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 yeah the Euro looks interesting...would hope some other models start to come around to that sort of idea...or heck...even for the Euro to hold the solution for a few cycles. Not getting my hopes up for that just yet. I'm curious about the potential Christmas Miracle storm...seemed like some decent agreement between the Euro and GFS at 0z, albeit solutions were a little south but plenty of time to adjust. Looks more like a SWFE, which we've had better luck with in recent years. Too early to start a separate thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 yeah the Euro looks interesting...would hope some other models start to come around to that sort of idea...or heck...even for the Euro to hold the solution for a few cycles. Not getting my hopes up for that just yet. I'm curious about the potential Christmas Miracle storm...seemed like some decent agreement between the Euro and GFS at 0z, albeit solutions were a little south but plenty of time to adjust. Looks more like a SWFE, which we've had better luck with in recent years. Too early to start a separate thread? yes--too early. This will be a freak show with multiple threat threads, banter thread, general pattern trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 After the model dabacle for snow on this storm, I will wait until tues and look outside to see if its snowing.........lol Glad to put that other thread to bed, It was like a funeral parlor in there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 yeah the Euro looks interesting...would hope some other models start to come around to that sort of idea...or heck...even for the Euro to hold the solution for a few cycles. Not getting my hopes up for that just yet. I'm curious about the potential Christmas Miracle storm...seemed like some decent agreement between the Euro and GFS at 0z, albeit solutions were a little south but plenty of time to adjust. Looks more like a SWFE, which we've had better luck with in recent years. Too early to start a separate thread? Music to my ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 yes--too early. This will be a freak show with multiple threat threads, banter thread, general pattern trend. Yeah good point, Wait until after this threat passes then move on to the next........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 After the model dabacle for snow on this storm, I will wait until tues and look outside to see if its snowing.........lol Glad to put that other thread to bed, It was like a funeral parlor in there.... Wait until that model debacle continues and it snows on Sunday. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 nothing but brown frozen grass for xmas here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 nothing but brown frozen grass for xmas here What are you talking about? Snow on Wed is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 What are you talking about? Snow on Wed is coming you mean are next chance for snow. upton already took down the 30% chance and replaced it with mostly cloudy all week..sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'll take my 1-3" on Wednesday please. Also, PLEASE move the x-mas storm to the day before or just cancel it all together. If the first major storm of the year cancelled my flight to Florida... thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 So what do you guys think the chances shift west the next run? What did the earlier Euro show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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