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Banter for the End of October


CT Rain

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Got another solid freeze overnight.  At or below 32F since 230am.  If the last freeze did not end my growing season, this one should polish it off.  I'm already noticed some of my grass on the shady side of the house going brown.  Looks like the official low will be around 30-31F.

 

Nice -- about 6* cooler than my 36.1.  Temp rebounding now.

 

38.8/36

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The first half warmth will definitely get a dent put in it, but it won't be erased. I think LR guidance has done fairly well...they saw the potential for the big warmth for the first half of this month and for a long time have signaled 10/20 or so as the flip to a cooler regime.

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Dust off the shovels! 

 

Kevin @TollandKev 23m

Looks like a snowy day in NE CT on Wednesday .http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif 

L.O freaking L.

 

Ironically, Kevin's location isn't even on that clown map. Modfan, NECT, Ginxy, and myself might get a bit of something from that.

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Just wanted to post something I've been experimenting with. This is a plot showing the top analogs based on the day 10 forecast of 500 hPa height from the ECMWF. I plotted the composite mean and standard deviation of the analogs. I used the rmse between the forecast and NCEP reanalysis data for the northern hemisphere to rank the analogs. Unlike the CPC, I did not impose the date of the analogs to be within 35 days of the forecast date. The reanalysis data I used also only goes back to 1979 so there won't be any analogs before that time. Any comments or suggestions would be appreciated.

 

post-869-0-94376400-1382403716_thumb.png

 

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Just wanted to post something I've been experimenting with. This is a plot showing the top analogs based on the day 10 forecast of 500 hPa height from the ECMWF. I plotted the composite mean and standard deviation of the analogs. I used the rmse between the forecast and NCEP reanalysis data for the northern hemisphere to rank the analogs. Unlike the CPC, I did not impose the date of the analogs to be within 35 days of the forecast date. The reanalysis data I used also only goes back to 1979 so there won't be any analogs before that time. Any comments or suggestions would be appreciated.

attachicon.gifecmAnalog240.png

Love the out of the box thinking here. Seems to me much more relevant and a better representation of the state of the atmosphere with correlations to previous similar evolutions. Good stuff right there. And oh those dates, yum, EDIT would love to see the same based on the Euro Ens.
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