weatherwiz Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Great paul! Best of luck with this. Awesome Paul Hey, that's awesome Paul, congrats! Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Congrats Paul! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Awesome Paul, Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 I tip a 40 in your general direction, Wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 I tip a 40 in your general direction, Wiz LOL! You know hints of winter are in the air when you start making more frequent posts and excursions into the discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Steel Reserves for Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 LOL! You know hints of winter are in the air when you start making more frequent posts and excursions into the discussions. The 6z GFS put me in a festive mood. Tried to check the Euro on wunderground but it's a b**ch on mobile. I'll assume it shows hvy hvy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 The 6z GFS put me in a festive mood. Tried to check the Euro on wunderground but it's a b**ch on mobile. I'll assume it shows hvy hvy snow. At Wildcat anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 At Wildcat anyway. Mmmmm... Wildcat. Looks like cold coming in earnest, maybe I'll buy a few more chords of wood. I ache from stacking all afternoon yesterday. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 33f Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Whoever is in the area should check out the Keene pumpkin festival today. Fun times. Kevin I see you lurking. You should post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Whoever is in the area should check out the Keene pumpkin festival today. Fun times. Kevin I see you lurking. You should post. We were going to go, but instead I have to go to a crappy family gtg in Foxboro. Booooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 We haven't fluffed him enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Mmmmm... Wildcat. Looks like cold coming in earnest, maybe I'll buy a few more chords of wood. I ache from stacking all afternoon yesterday. lol Stop your whining and lend a hand! The end of my year's work is in sight. Probably just a cord and a half left. That said, I don't really think of wood in terms of cords. Instead, hours/days/weeks/months and truckloads. I'm surprised the old F-150 still has a back window from all the hits it's taken as I toss logs in. 59.8/43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 MPM is the most mysterious man in the world. Nobody knows if he works. When he used to He wore shawls drinking coffee on his porch. Seems like he's cutting down a forest and evey pick of his land is just fields so where is the wood comig from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 MPM is the most mysterious man in the world. Nobody knows if he works. When he used to He wore shawls drinking coffee on his porch. Seems like he's cutting down a forest and evey pick of his land is just fields so where is the wood comig from? He imports it from Brazillian rain forests Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Perfect week to head to Seattle as I will Monday. Dry there which is good for my purposes. Returning to full blown heating season here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 new euro says congrats lobsters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 new euro says congrats lobsters lol, Georges bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 MPM is the most mysterious man in the world. Nobody knows if he works. When he used to He wore shawls drinking coffee on his porch. Seems like he's cutting down a forest and evey pick of his land is just fields so where is the wood comig from? He also doesn't always drink beer. But when he does.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 MPM is the most mysterious man in the world. Nobody knows if he works. When he used to He wore shawls drinking coffee on his porch. Seems like he's cutting down a forest and evey pick of his land is just fields so where is the wood comig from? LOL. The woods lie beyond my strategically parked truck and splitter. And, I think Pickles is the most mysterious man. Sales and consulting is the job--based out of home. In warm weather months, home is often "on the deck". Next summer it will probably be pool side. lol 57.8/41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Thanks again everyone! You all have meant so much to me so I owe you all a major thanks! I seriously don't think I could have learned as much anywhere else or just on my own in general. What I'm really looking forward to is really sharpening winter forecasting skills, that is an area I need a quite a bit of work but I feel with increased effort and lots of studying I can do it. With operating such a page, my goal is to be completely hype free and portray forecasts to the public exactly how it seems...no BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Thanks again everyone! You all have meant so much to me so I owe you all a major thanks! I seriously don't think I could have learned as much anywhere else or just on my own in general. What I'm really looking forward to is really sharpening winter forecasting skills, that is an area I need a quite a bit of work but I feel with increased effort and lots of studying I can do it. With operating such a page, my goal is to be completely hype free and portray forecasts to the public exactly how it seems...no BS.You owe us all one mega weenie meltdown before"serious Paul" kicks in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 You owe us all one mega weenie meltdown before"serious Paul" kicks in I came so close to melting down after this summer lol...it was just terrible for convection here. Likely I encountered that severe storm in upstate NY so in the end I can be happy about that. I'm sure I'll have some melt downs lol...especially if this winter is a dud...but what better place to have it happen than here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 With operating such a page, my goal is to be completely hype free and portray forecasts to the public exactly how it seems...no BS. Nice, congrats. You obviously have a deep passion as well as respect for the science (ie not using weather to generate hype just for the purpose of getting webpage hits or tweets shared, etc) so I'm sure you'll do great. Let us know when you start forecasting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Kevin I see you lurking. You should post. This board is more addicting than cocaine or oreos, lol, he'll be back posting away in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Nice, congrats. You obviously have a deep passion as well as respect for the science (ie not using weather to generate hype just for the purpose of getting webpage hits or tweets shared, etc) so I'm sure you'll do great. Let us know when you start forecasting! I took over operations of their facebook page as of today and I will begin the process of doing actual forecasts through their main website tomorrow. My first task right now is too submit a rough draft copy of my winter outlook for the Northeast by the 28th at the latest. I'll be pretty crammed these next few weeks as it will be a great challenge of balancing school/homework/studying, work, composing posts for this sports site I've started working with and working on the forecast...this will certainly keep me busy and I'm certainly up to the challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 I took over operations of their facebook page as of today and I will begin the process of doing actual forecasts through their main website tomorrow. My first task right now is too submit a rough draft copy of my winter outlook for the Northeast by the 28th at the latest. I'll be pretty crammed these next few weeks as it will be a great challenge of balancing school/homework/studying, work, composing posts for this sports site I've started working with and working on the forecast...this will certainly keep me busy and I'm certainly up to the challenge.hey Paul maybe this will work out for you rather than doing the standard winter forecast which everyone does. I decided to try and use a six week at a time forecast. It's probably a lot more accurate and portrays more confidence. Maybe they will like the idea. Update the week before the six weeks are up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 hey Paul maybe this will work out for you rather than doing the standard winter forecast which everyone does. I decided to try and use a six week at a time forecast. It's probably a lot more accurate and portrays more confidence. Maybe they will like the idea. Update the week before the six weeks are up. I actually share your thoughts Steve! Seasonal forecasting is something I've became heavily intrigued in I think back in 2008 but the past 2-3 years I really have not done much work with it. Anyways, I have been brainstorming various ideas of composing seasonal forecasts. When it comes to seasonal forecasting, I don't think you can really say there is a wrong way to go about it as it is an extremely intriguing method and when it comes down to it, it's really all about what the presenter is trying to portray. Anyways, what I am beginning to do right now is, take a look at how the atmosphere has been responding overall the past few months. I know ENSO is typically a major tool used in seasonal forecasting, and rightfully so, however, you have to be creative with how you use it. For example, currently we are in a neutral ENSO state and if you look at computer models, the theme seems to be either neutral and predominately on the negative side. What I want to do is look into and see if the atmosphere is behaving more like you would see in a La Nina state, and EL Nino state, or perhaps no strong signal either way. While there is a strong correlation between ENSO and the atmosphere, the correlation may not only be lagged at times, but sometimes the atmosphere responds completely different. I'm also not much of a fan anymore of "analogs". I'm beginning to think the term has been taken out of context and the use of an analog is completely misunderstood. For example, say an upcoming pattern was similar to Jan '11...i think people take that as expecting to see a 100% redux of Jan '11 which may actually not be the case at all. I can see hoping for it and being excited but similar patterns don't always produce similar outcomes. While the patterns may be similar that doesn't mean energies and mesoscale factors will all come together the same. As for your idea, that is something I have thought about before as well and is something I really like. The only negative part of that idea is if you are an energy forecaster, they want ideas much further out than 6 weeks but I guess you could always convince the person in charge that not only will there be a better chance to vastly improve accuracy, but it may actually benefit them more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Another nice shot from my family in Woodstock, CT today... Looks like peak foliage continues down there. I miss the colorful leaves on the trees already. Just brown up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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