Brian5671 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 0.33" in 1963 probably will beat that...likely to get .07 or more tonight. If we don't then could get interesting as we're dry for 7 days after that at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 It's been so dry here since Aug 1st. Locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 http://water.weather.gov/precip/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 yes, you did. If we had more members like mapgirl on here, this forum would be a lot more peaceful and fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 I see NG too, crazy stuff on the floors. Bet some good energy mets cleaned up last week. Never doubt the power of a recurve super typhoon to drive troughs deeper than initially modeled. I would have made some dough last week when the mehs were being thrown around like Eli interceptions. (side note as soon as I typed Eli, interceptions came up as a suggested word, how bad is that for a Giants fan like me) That's a tough gig otherwise every good met would be rich by now. Meteorology plays a role in energy trading, but it's just one component of the price of an energy futures contract. If you invested in the Jan '14 nat gas contracts you could have made ~7.5% (assuming an unhedged position) in the last 7-10 days according to my Bloomberg terminal. If you just blindly stuck your money in the S&P you would have made 4.5%, so how much of that nat gas futures return was skill vs. dumb luck (or other non-meteorology related market forces)? That is the fun part (or not so fun part for the analyst) of performance attribution, and it's just about that time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 That's a tough gig otherwise every good met would be rich by now. Meteorology plays a role in energy trading, but it's just one component of the price of an energy futures contract. If you invested in the Jan '14 nat gas contracts you could have made ~7.5% (assuming an unhedged position) in the last 7-10 days according to my Bloomberg terminal. If you just blindly stuck your money in the S&P you would have made 4.5%, so how much of that nat gas futures return was skill vs. dumb luck (or other non-meteorology related market forces)? That is the fun part (or not so fun part for the analyst) of performance attribution, and it's just about that time of year. Yes it is. Nat Gas actually used to react to weather even more than it does now...so its actually getting harder. Though the long range forecasting is getting better at the same time. A good LR forecaster on an objective scale will be "right" only like 55-60% of the time with a month lead. The difference between good and coinflipping really isn't that much. The best definitely earn their money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 [banter]...funbags...[/banter] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Anybody have these flocks of blackbirds? There must be a thousand of them hanging around my house. It looks like a goddam Stephen King movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Anybody have these flocks of blackbirds? There must be a thousand of them hanging around my house. It looks like a goddam Stephen King movie. welcome back to the 'burbs. they are probably grackles. they gather together this time of year as they get ready to get out of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 ladybugs crawling on the outside of my house-must mean cold/snow on the way....lol-they do this every year a few make it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 welcome back to the 'burbs. they are probably grackles. they gather together this time of year as they get ready to get out of town. all though...this day and age...they probably don't leave really like a lot of birds they will stick around through the winter. but they definitely gather in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 welcome back to the 'burbs. they are probably grackles. they gather together this time of year as they get ready to get out of town. They will often flock with red-winged blackbirds too and you end up with these massive flocks. Sometimes you'll see starlings and cowbirds in those flocks as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 They will often flock with red-winged blackbirds too and you end up with these massive flocks. Sometimes you'll see starlings and cowbirds in those flocks as well. yeah we get them mixed with the red-winged blackbirds here a lot. the groups are wicked noisy too...and actually can make a mess of the yard stirring up all the grass and leaves etc. but i always like it because it's a quintessential fall sound to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Will be nice to finally have some legit fall air in here. Gets a little old when your coming up on the later half of October and it's been extremely warm all month. Looking forward to it regardless of the extent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Will be nice to finally have some legit fall air in here. Gets a little old when your coming up on the later half of October and it's been extremely warm all month. Looking forward to it regardless of the extent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Anybody have these flocks of blackbirds? There must be a thousand of them hanging around my house. It looks like a goddam Stephen King movie. No longer in Dorchester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merrychristmas Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 I forgot to introduce myself like Brett did. My name is Brent (very similar to the other new member's name lol) and my username is merry christmas because I am always in the spirit of Christmas I just arrived here less than a day ago and I am from Toronto. I think I will try to fit in with the NE section. I am glad someone posted something from here in the accuweather forum where things often become dead while this place is alive so now I found this place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 I forgot to introduce myself like Brett did. My name is Brent (very similar to the other new member's name lol) and my username is merry christmas because I am always in the spirit of Christmas I just arrived here less than a day ago and I am from Toronto. I think I will try to fit in with the NE section. I am glad someone posted something from here in the accuweather forum where things often become dead while this place is alive so now I found this place! Welcome aboard to Brent and Brett, enjoy the place, its lots of fun and very informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merrychristmas Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Welcome aboard to Brent and Brett, enjoy the place, its lots of fun and very informative. thanks a lot. I will enjoy sharing all I have learned as well. I like cold weather a lot. I have been learning about professional use of professional weather data since grade 7 and have been interpreting a variety of models and data to make forecasts for my school since grade 9. Some new things I learned about were the typhoon connection with the eastern US cold, which I learned in the last couple days and the SSW which helps draw cold in the winter. I look forward to advancing in my weather interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 thanks a lot. I will enjoy sharing all I have learned as well. I like cold weather a lot. I have been learning about professional use of professional weather data since grade 7 and have been interpreting a variety of models and data to make forecasts for my school since grade 9. Some new things I learned about were the typhoon connection with the eastern US cold, which I learned in the last couple days and the SSW which helps draw cold in the winter. I look forward to advancing in my weather interest. Welcome aboard dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstoned Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Your location ? Monson, MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Monson, MAnice is the steeple back up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstoned Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 nice is the stepple back up? Under construction. The pepple are rebuilding the stepple! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Under construction. The pepple are rebuilding the stepple! awesome, did you get hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 thanks guys. A little bit more about myself, I am currently getting my Criminal Justice Degree at Bridgewater State University, live in Taunton as you can probably guess lol. Weather, especially winter weather has fascinated me as far back as I can remember. Those with this disease/affliction/blessing tend to find their way to this forum eventually. Welcome aboard. Let's hope this winter delivers the good stuff. After this winter I'll probably be moving down to the DC area so it might be my last real winter for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Anybody have these flocks of blackbirds? There must be a thousand of them hanging around my house. It looks like a goddam Stephen King movie.We get them now and then. Loud fookers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Summer rolls on and on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merrychristmas Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Welcome aboard dude. Thanks a lot. I am pumped to track this cold spell we are moving into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 No sign of the dreaded ladybugs that aren't ladybugs. The ones that winter inside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 You see what a slippery slope can produce. Lol weather police. Poor kids who are weenies like we all were are now subject to adult abuse. Their first "arrest" was a 16 year old weenie kid, congrats.https://www.facebook.com/weatherpolice?ref=br_tf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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