CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Nice stuff man. The day 10 euro sure can be unstable, but that's nice work. Are you able to do this for the euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 1:23 AM, Ginxy said: Love the out of the box thinking here. Seems to me much more relevant and a better representation of the state of the atmosphere with correlations to previous similar evolutions. Good stuff right there. And oh those dates, yum, EDIT would love to see the same based on the Euro Ens. Thank you, I think the spread may help point to areas where the analogs are more or less reliable. On 10/22/2013 at 1:28 AM, CoastalWx said: Nice stuff man. The day 10 euro sure can be unstable, but that's nice work. Are you able to do this for the euro ensembles? Thanks. The data I'm using are the freely available euro operational forecasts on the ecmwf server. If I can find the ensemble mean on there I could most likely use it to determine the analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 1:47 AM, heavy_wx said: Thank you, I think the spread may help point to areas where the analogs are more or less reliable. Thanks. The data I'm using are the freely available euro operational forecasts on the ecmwf server. If I can find the ensemble mean on there I could most likely use it to determine the analogs. On 10/22/2013 at 1:47 AM, heavy_wx said: Thank you, I think the spread may help point to areas where the analogs are more or less reliable. Thanks. The data I'm using are the freely available euro operational forecasts on the ecmwf server. If I can find the ensemble mean on there I could most likely use it to determine the analogs. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!Northern%20Hemisphere!0!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2013102112!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 12:53 AM, redsoxdude1714 said: Dust off the shovels! Kevin @TollandKev 23m Looks like a snowy day in NE CT on Wednesday .http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif … Glad to see he's still at it on twitter, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 2:33 AM, powderfreak said: Glad to see he's still at it on twitter, haha. lol, The clown map, He should check the 0z Nam................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 2:34 AM, dryslot said: lol, The clown map, He should check the 0z Nam................ feet upon feet for Tolland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 2:35 AM, Cold Miser said: feet upon feet for Tolland? +cirrus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Stupid tweet. Congrats on cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 1:00 AM, Cold Miser said: L.O freaking L. Ironically, Kevin's location isn't even on that clown map. Modfan, NECT, Ginxy, and myself might get a bit of something from that. Nah. Just me and Modfan. You and Ginxy are way too far south. Did they design the bald gotee smiley guy after you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 First snow related product in the northeast... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 445 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013 NYZ008-221645- /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0010.131024T0500Z-131025T0300Z/ LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE 445 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT AND MAINLY OVER THE TUG HILL AND POSSIBLY THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. * TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 5 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. * IMPACTS...SNOW MAY PRODUCE DIFFICULT TRAVEL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME MINOR TREE DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE...WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE BY RESIDENTS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS FOR AN EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL AND POSSIBLY THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY RESULT IN MINOR TREE DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ HITCHCOCK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 3:44 AM, NECT said: Nah. Just me and Modfan. You and Ginxy are way too far south. Did they design the bald gotee smiley guy after you? lol. I doubt it. He was here long before me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 LOL-you all take the bait from Blizz even when he's not on the board. Why did he leave this go around? What's the over/under for when he's back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 12:14 PM, powderfreak said: First snow related product in the northeast... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 445 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013 NYZ008-221645- /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0010.131024T0500Z-131025T0300Z/ LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE 445 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT AND MAINLY OVER THE TUG HILL AND POSSIBLY THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. * TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 5 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. * IMPACTS...SNOW MAY PRODUCE DIFFICULT TRAVEL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME MINOR TREE DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE...WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE BY RESIDENTS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS FOR AN EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL AND POSSIBLY THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY RESULT IN MINOR TREE DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ HITCHCOCK Might be a good time to be at my ex-wife's family's camp on the Tug in Lewis County at 1300'. Not sure if that's high enough, but better than the cirrus over here. 46.0/44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 1:22 PM, moneypitmike said: Might be a good time to be at my ex-wife's family's camp on the Tug in Lewis County at 1300'. Not sure if that's high enough, but better than the cirrus over here. 46.0/44 Could u talk her into getting a plot around 1800' ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 EPIC LES en route over the Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 i hope all 12 people can handle it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 1:25 PM, cpick79 said: Could u talk her into getting a plot around 1800' ? LOL--I don't think I'm in a position to talk to her about anything. They actually have a great lake-front spot. And, it's not really a camp--a 4BR house that they call camp. Yup--roughing it. 46.1/44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 1:42 PM, forkyfork said: i hope all 12 people can handle itMy brother in law moved there in July, road trip Dec 21 for a Bills game, hopefully catch a LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 DVN with an earlier first snow than GYX. Although because of the water influence up here their average first snowfall dates are remarkably close (slight edge to Maine). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 2:52 PM, OceanStWx said: DVN with an earlier first snow than GYX. Although because of the water influence up here their average first snowfall dates are remarkably close (slight edge to Maine). Davenport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 3:32 PM, SJonesWX said: Davenport? Yep, they were up to .8" as of 15 minutes ago. Got right under the banding, 33/31 1/2SM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 1:37 PM, CoastalWx said: EPIC LES en route over the Tug. Snow chances from now till Sat. up at our lake house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 3:35 PM, Cold Miser said: Snow chances from now till Sat. up at our lake house. Where's that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 3:42 PM, moneypitmike said: Where's that? Just North/East of Old Forge, NY. Actually beyond the "tug hill" border towards the east, but the LES still makes it that far over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 4:15 PM, Cold Miser said: Just North/East of Old Forge, NY. Actually beyond the "tug hill" border towards the east, but the LES still makes it that far over. Sure--the place I mentioned is lakeside in Brantingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 4:27 PM, moneypitmike said: Sure--the place I mentioned is lakeside in Brantingham. Definitely more in the drawn boundries of The "Hill". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 ...boring in here with out Kev.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 3:33 PM, OceanStWx said: Yep, they were up to .8" as of 15 minutes ago. Got right under the banding, 33/31 1/2SM. good for them! i am a little jealous, if it was late november i would be really jealous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 On 10/22/2013 at 5:28 PM, Cold Miser said: ...boring in here with out Kev.... JUst start making posts about how warm it is in Tolland to draw him out. Man--it's 53* here at the Pit and 61* as the lowest reading I can find in Tolland County (actually, the site on Leela Way which I think is the one Kevin reports as being closest to him). What a torch land. Something like that. That'll liven it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 38 at 1pm in Chicago, pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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