Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

[Ginx snewx]

Maybe... though storm track still favors west. Looks like a pretty solid gradient setting up.

would be awesome in Jan. Hopefully snow in late November lasting until mid March. I want a belly to belly winter, been a long time since the last one. Any bonus flakes in early November are good too. Enjoy your hike.

[Ginx snewx]

I haven't really dived into it tonight yet, but that could certainly be the case. Still would be pretty close to normal for NNE areas.

I think sometimes when we say "pattern change" and "colder than normal" in the same sentence, the translation becomes "mid Jan" around here. At least we can count on some people (yourself included) to get it.

hoodies and gloves at the games is what I think not snow suits and mittens.

[CT Rain]

would be awesome in Jan. Hopefully snow in late November lasting until mid March. I want a belly to belly winter, been a long time since the last one. Any bonus flakes in early November are good too. Enjoy your hike.

 

We should hope for some cutters because a track overhead or nearby will do nothing other than cool/raw/ugly temps this time of year. Might as well warm up for a bit while it lasts.

 

I'm really anti-snow until post 11/15. 

[ORH_wxman]

Climo is usually your friend. BDL has had their first measurable in October just three times (since 1949), with an average first measurable of 11/25.

 

Compared to say, BTV where they've had their first measurable in October 21 times (since 1943), with an average first measurable of 11/6.

 

So will it be much colder than recent temps? Yes. Than normal? Unlikely.

 

Seasons preforming as seasons.

 

ORH numbers of first measurable in recent years:

 

2012: 11/6

2011: 10/27

2010: 12/21

2009: 10/15

2008: 12/7

2007: 11/20

2006: 12/4

2005: 11/24

2004: 11/12

2003: 10/23

2002: 10/23

2001: 12/8

2000: 10/30

1999: 1/13 (latest on record)

1998: 12/17

1997: 11/14

1996: 11/25

1995: 11/13

1994: 11/23

1993: 11/21

1992: 11/17

1991: 11/10

1990: 11/8

 

 

Average: November 19th

Median: November 17th

[Ginx snewx]

Will you didn't have measurable Nov 6 2010?

[Ginx snewx]

I hope for a real cold November with ice forming by the last week with plentiful snow cover just to my north by the third week. Not even close to saying that would happen just a preference this year.

[ORH_wxman]

Will you didn't have measurable Nov 6 2010?

 

 

Your are thinking of 11/8/10...we didn't have measurable in that. It coated the ground for trace. Down in your area, you had a more prolonged burst of steady snow which allowed it to accumulate there an inch or two in spots.

[Typhoon Tip]

I dunno - I'm suspect of the magnitude of any cold incursion in the middle, extended, and intuitive la-la ranges, until one verifies. 

 

This has been the theme for countless months now, where these impressive cool 850mb temperature departures are "forced" into the flow around 45 N, and then when it gets closer into better deterministic ranges it's entirely normal relative to season.  Let's see how this pans out from the about the 17th through the 31st of the month.  There is likely to be a nice negative EPO ridge and/or +PNA, western N/A height bulge and an establishment of NW flow regime through the Canadian lat/lons.   I'm interested in how that gets into the regions from the NP-GL, to the N OV-NE.   Recent runs of (at least) the operational Euro have tried to back off on the penetration S of the 0C isotherm. Even the Canadian is backing off passing from extended intervals to the middle range --> short range.  I was looking at the 10-day GGEM temp anomalies N of the border, and they are hefty positive right now.  Granted that could change quickly with the establishment of a -EPO ridge, but there is no predecessor cold stow because of the pervasive positive anomalies.  If the NW flow is not cross-polar, I bet the temp distribution ends up more normal.

 

In the end, it looks rather typical autumn relative to GW.  We establish a cold "look" to the flow, and end up rather average ... perhaps somewhat below.  We're transporting across snowless land in an era where 540dm doesn't mean the same thing as it did 50 years ago.    

[Ginx snewx]

Your are thinking of 11/8/10...we didn't have measurable in that. It coated the ground for trace. Down in your area, you had a more prolonged burst of steady snow which allowed it to accumulate there an inch or two in spots.

yes 11/8 the retro storm, I had two and Tolland schools shut for a week with 1

[toronto blizzard]

I dunno - I'm suspect of the magnitude of any cold incursion in the middle, extended, and intuitive la-la ranges, until one verifies. 

 

This has been the theme for countless months now, where these impressive cool 850mb temperature departures are "forced" into the flow around 45 N, and then when it gets closer into better deterministic ranges it's entirely normal relative to season.  Let's see how this pans out from the about the 17th through the 31st of the month.  There is likely to be a nice negative EPO ridge and/or +PNA, western N/A height bulge and an establishment of NW flow regime through the Canadian lat/lons.   I'm interested in how that gets into the regions from the NP-GL, to the N OV-NE.   Recent runs of (at least) the operational Euro have tried to back off on the penetration S of the 0C isotherm. Even the Canadian is backing off passing from extended intervals to the middle range --> short range.  I was looking at the 10-day GGEM temp anomalies N of the border, and they are hefty positive right now.  Granted that could change quickly with the establishment of a -EPO ridge, but there is no predecessor cold stow because of the pervasive positive anomalies.  If the NW flow is not cross-polar, I bet the temp distribution ends up more normal.

 

In the end, it looks rather typical autumn relative to GW.  We establish a cold "look" to the flow, and end up rather average ... perhaps somewhat below.  We're transporting across snowless land in an era where 540dm doesn't mean the same thing as it did 50 years ago.    

Debbie Downer you are

[Typhoon Tip]

Debbie Downer you are

 

Ha.  I get you, though.  Winter is fun.  But no ... sorry.  I don't mean to be a downer, but I think if you really calmly read and ingest what I wrote, it's entirely clad for reasoning and science.  

 

I hope that the users here are really more interested in reality over fantasy.   Sometimes I wonder.  

 

I was dancing around GW, there, in my mind.  We are still in an era where "cold" patterns tend to normalize, and "hot" patterns over perform.   That just cannot be denied.

 

Believe me, when winter/Nov/Dec arrive, I'm a soldier with you.   

[Snowstorms]

Ha.  I get you, though.  Winter is fun.  But no ... sorry.  I don't mean to be a downer, but I think if you really calmly read and ingest what I wrote, it's entirely clad for reasoning and science.  

 

I hope that the users here are really more interested in reality over fantasy.   Sometimes I wonder.  

 

I was dancing around GW, there, in my mind.  We are still in an era where "cold" patterns tend to normalize, and "hot" patterns over perform.   That just cannot be denied.

 

Believe me, when winter/Nov/Dec arrive, I'm a soldier with you.   

 For now, i think building the snow cover across northern regions of not only Siberia and Eurasia but also northern Canada is far more important. If we can retain a nice snow cover anomaly across the West this could bode well for colder temperature anomalies in the East rather than being "modified". Snow in October in the East is often a nuisance and usually more local so it signifies nothing, i rather see what type of pattern evolves in November than October. I could see the potential of a +NAO developing in November through atleast the first half and perhaps a neutral to positive AO. 

 

I've been watching the Solar output and could this have any residual effects on our weather in the Winter? And I dont mean directly, more indirectly through its effects with the Hadley cell and the AAM/GWO? I havent looked at all this weather stuff since last winter so im trying to grasp all the information right now, lol. 

[joey2002]

I'm really anti-snow until post 11/15. 

 

Even an 11/6 event like last year?  That was a fun snowstorm...

[It's Always Sunny]

Hour 240 looking real nice for NNE snow weenies.

[moneypitmike]

I haven't really dived into it tonight yet, but that could certainly be the case. Still would be pretty close to normal for NNE areas.

 

I think sometimes when we say "pattern change" and "colder than normal" in the same sentence, the translation becomes "mid Jan" around here. At least we can count on some people (yourself included) to get it.

 

I think the big culprit is the use of "colder than normal".  A -5* departure at this time of year doesn't classify as "cold" in any absolute way, just as a plus 5 at this time of year isn't "hot".  Using the word "cold" conjures up the need for parkas and the like.  I think we'd be better off to use the relative times of above/below normal.  Descriptors as 'much above'/'much below' are useful too.  They conjure up the relatiive sensibility without raising the spectre of hype.

 

yes 11/8 the retro storm, I had two and Tolland schools shut for a week with 1

 

That was great--I forgot about that one.  Not a loaf of break or gallon of milk to be seen on the Tolland grocery store shelves.  Deadly, deadly storm.

 

What a mild night tonight--much, much above normal.

 

54.6/52 at 5:00a.m.

[dendrite]

Torch mins outside of SE MA this morning.

[HoarfrostHubb]

47.8F here attm. Manky

[Bostonseminole]

47.4 have a great day!

[CapturedNature]

Climo is usually your friend. BDL has had their first measurable in October just three times (since 1949), with an average first measurable of 11/25.

 

Compared to say, BTV where they've had their first measurable in October 21 times (since 1943), with an average first measurable of 11/6.

 

So will it be much colder than recent temps? Yes. Than normal? Unlikely.

 

Seasons preforming as seasons.

 

My running average for the first snowfall has been an average of 11/9 for a trace and 11/14 for 1"+.  I'd have to go back and see how many times I've had traces of October snow but I do know that I've had measurable in 4 of the past 28 Octobers.  It remains to be seen if this year joins that club.

 

Temp rose here overnight - currently 47°.  Looking forward to the seasonable weather heading our way!

[Baroclinic Zone]

Torch mins outside of SE MA this morning.

 

Love these AMs.  38F, maybe pop a 37F min.  Looks like we cool off middle/end next week.  Nice gradient.  Could be a good storm for the Upper Midwest.

[weathafella]

Maybe if you live in the midwest.

Yes. The long range shows that nicely and it suits me well as I am of the feeling that it has to cold north and west of us first.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro ensembles show a pretty impressivew cold shot around or just after 10/25. The longwave pattenr is pretty favorable for a decent shot with a solid -EPO and to a lesser extent -NAO.

 

Its still roughly 10 days out, so stuff can obviously change...but that pattern has been signaled on the ensembles for a while now.

[weathafella]

Belly to bellies:

1960-61

1993-94 but it started in late December.

others?

[CoastalWx]

Oct 2002-April 2003.

[ORH_wxman]

Belly to bellies:

1960-61

1993-94 but it started in late December.

others?

in addition to 2002-2003 that Scott already posted:

 

1976-1977

1992-1993 (we did have a 2nd half of Dec torch and first week of Jan...but every winter including 1994 had at least one mild spell)

1995-1996

1970-1971 (this might be on the exception to the above rule)

1947-1948

[weathafella]

Oct 2002-April 2003.

Indeed. Forgot about that one. An under the radar under rated epic winter.

[weathafella]

in addition to 2002-2003 that Scott already posted:

 

1976-1977

1992-1993 (we did have a 2nd half of Dec torch and first week of Jan...but every winter including 1994 had at least one mild spell)

1995-1996

1970-1971 (this might be on the exception to the above rule)

1947-1948

1992-93 had torches too long. Clinton was inaugurated Ina 60 degree day (here).

1995-96 had prolonged torches.

1993-94 had a 3 day torch so that one is belly to belly.

1970-71 was a good winter, not great from my perspective of experiencing it.

[CoastalWx]

But think about 2002-2003. Sure the SE MA coast got screwed a bit into January, but there were snow events right to the coast from late October into April. That's incredible.

[ORH_wxman]

1992-93 had torches too long. Clinton was inaugurated Ina 60 degree day (here).

1995-96 had prolonged torches.

1993-94 had a 3 day torch so that one is belly to belly.

1970-71 was a good winter, not great from my perspective of experiencing it.

 

 

Well the Feb 1994 torch lasted more like 5-6 days from about Feb 19-25 or so. But yes, it was a pretty epic winter devoid of torches other than that one.

[snowman21]

Here's my belly-to-belly list for BOS...

The criteria: below average temperatures (based on 1981-2010 normals) November through March and total snowfall 40+ inches (snow data can be spotty in BOS's record).

 

Season   Departure  Snow
------------------------
1947-48     -3.8    89.2
1903-04     -6.2    72.9
1906-07     -4.2    67.9
2002-03     -2.9    67.7
1892-93     -5.2    66.0
1922-23     -3.9    64.9
1964-65     -2.6    50.4
1894-95     -4.0    46.9
1917-18     -6.1    45.7
1942-43     -2.8    45.7
1904-03     -5.8    44.9

I'm missing some good snow seasons based on my crude criteria which is heavily weighted towards persistent cold vs. snow and of course does not take into consideration long stretches of bare ground or lack of storms. One would need to come up some formula for snow depth days + snowfall + temperatures (extremes and mean departures) to fairly rank the seasons.