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Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

CT Rain

By CT Rain,
in New England

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Tornadomachine

Tornadomachine

Posted
Posted

Everything in the long range is looked at skeptically... don't you see that?  It doesn't matter if its your torch to end all torches on the long range models in June or if its colder weather in October.  They are consistently skeptical as most should be of long range progs...and they don't bias it based on the type of weather they want.  This is what they do for a living, its not some hobby they use to make their lives more exciting by hyping weather. 

 

I really like that the mets don't hype and go all crazy over these long range progs just for the sake of excitement.  They all have discussed it and said that it will get colder... no one has said a warm-up is coming.  They just aren't cheerleaders for weather, they are professional who want to get it right without misleading folks. 

 

Most of the mets on here (if not all of them) are very consistent and not prone to wild swings.  They get excited when its warranted...24 hours prior to a storm and that's it, lol.  They aren't like the JB's who are out tweeting just for the sake of getting folks riled up.

Who's ready for the 31 day ensembles in 2015?  Gonna be the best forecasting ever!

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I don't care if anyone ever responds to me. I am a wx enthusiast and enjoy discussing the weather. They are my thoughts and opinions and for whatever reason, people seem compelled to respond to my thoughts. I've often wondered why my ideas are challenged and attacked like they are, but I've learned to accept it, and that there are different rules for different posters and moved on.

This week seems to be our last AN period for a long long time

 

 

Hey Kevin,

 

The Yankees missed the play-offs and the Giants are enjoying an 0 and 6 start, so cheer up!

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the moors in england

the moors in england

Posted
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I don't care if anyone ever responds to me. I am a wx enthusiast and enjoy discussing the weather. They are my thoughts and opinions and for whatever reason, people seem compelled to respond to my thoughts. I've often wondered why my ideas are challenged and attacked like they are, but I've learned to accept it, and that there are different rules for different posters and moved on.

This week seems to be our last AN period for a long long time

classic meltdown

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Everyone of Kevin's posts has a double meaning or type of backdoor poke, including that one. Don't get him wrong he loves the attention

 

He's either a genius at getting (some might say trolling for) responses or completely oblivious as to why his posts attract attention.

 

I just always picture him laughing at the computer and saying to himself "got ya again PowderPuff, no one is really expecting deep winter in October you fool" :lol:

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

Kevin is ridiculous. LOL at no cutters.

 

And he fails to miss the point. Yes there will be cold shots. Yes there is the potential for someone in the northeast to see a wintry storm heading into early November. But I stand by my thoughts of the "coldest" air being west. 

Winter starts 11/1 now.   Granted the last 2 years have brought snow on 10/29 and 11/7...one winter sucked from beginning to end and the other didnt start until 2/8...not sure I'd want early snows....

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toronto blizzard

toronto blizzard

Posted
Posted

Kevin is ridiculous. LOL at no cutters.

 

And he fails to miss the point. Yes there will be cold shots. Yes there is the potential for someone in the northeast to see a wintry storm heading into early November. But I stand by my thoughts of the "coldest" air being west. 

What you said this morning about the potential for a big cold shot in late October or Early November do you still see that?

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toronto blizzard

toronto blizzard

Posted
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Weeklies have the -EPO and a piece of the polar vortex over SE Canada into week 3. Week 4 has a western AK/Aleutian ridge with a monster +NAO displaced SW towards NE Hudson bay. We are on the fence and temps appear normal for that time over our area but big gradient look.

Sounds like Week 3 would be cold over our region. Is week 3 Nov 4-10th?

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Weeklies have the -EPO and a piece of the polar vortex over SE Canada into week 3. Week 4 has a western AK/Aleutian ridge with a monster +NAO displaced SW towards NE Hudson bay. We are on the fence and temps appear normal for that time over our area but big gradient look.

That's a 1993-94 look! May it continue into the winter!

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

I've often wondered why my ideas are challenged and attacked like they are, but I've learned to accept it, and that there are different rules for different posters and moved on.

 

Presumably the above is part of another joke, but just in case it isn’t, have you ever looked at your typical posts?  More often than not they’re agenda-driven one-liners, purposely devoid of any sort of reasoned explanation and almost specifically designed to incite criticism from the meteorologists or anyone else that respects the science.  Everyone knows this.  I think we get it that you’re friends with many of the professionals and moderators in the forum, and they’re cool with the same old shtick, but even to those of us who know it’s all a big game, more and more the flavor of the posts comes in somewhere between disrespectful and insulting.  Why in the world many of the posters should have to work hard, sift through the data, and take the time to incorporate maps and other figures into insightful, cogent posts, while others get a pass throwing out what are essentially wishful “tweets”, is beyond me.  I’m not saying that there isn’t a place for the “weenie” and “hype” type of weather wish-casting posts, that’s part of what makes the board “fun” for a lot of people, but the banter thread is the perfect place for that instead of the formal weather discussion.  As to addressing “why my ideas are challenged and attacked like they are”, line up your last 50 posts, pull out the weenie, the wish-casting, the agenda, the hype, the boredom, and whatever else is filling them up, and look at what’s left.  Write some sincere, well-researched, Tip-style posts and see what sort of response you get.  I think it would be great to put your talents to use in that way instead of just going down the same old road of the last few years.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Weeklies have the -EPO and a piece of the polar vortex over SE Canada into week 3. Week 4 has a western AK/Aleutian ridge with a monster +NAO displaced SW towards NE Hudson bay. We are on the fence and temps appear normal for that time over our area but big gradient look.

 

 

I have a feeling we might be dealing with that week 4 pattern quite a bit this winter. As long as the Aleutian ridge is poleward enough to initiate cross polar flow and cut-off the NPAC maritime flow, that's not a bad pattern for most in the Northeast. The +NAO could be problematic for southerners of the Northeast but a -EPO can counteract it if it's strong enough / extends far north. All speculation anyway.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

93-94 seems to be talked about quite a lot of autumns as a potential analog but its chances of being repeated are very low. We had massive cold very far south given the terrible atlantic pattern. The strong low level cold in eastern Canada kept many events frozen down to the Mason-Dixon line, but in most gradient winters, that amount of snow/ice does not occur as far south as it did. We really need Siberian cold with the vortex over ern Canada and an amazing -EPO/-AO cross polar pattern. The frequency of storms was also incredible and probably difficult to repeat.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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93-94 seems to be talked about quite a lot of autumns as a potential analog but its chances of being repeated are very low. We had massive cold very far south given the terrible atlantic pattern. The strong low level cold in eastern Canada kept many events frozen down to the Mason-Dixon line, but in most gradient winters, that amount of snow/ice does not occur as far south as it did. We really need Siberian cold with the vortex over ern Canada and an amazing -EPO/-AO cross polar pattern. The frequency of storms was also incredible and probably difficult to repeat.

2013 walked into our door
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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

Climo is usually your friend. BDL has had their first measurable in October just three times (since 1949), with an average first measurable of 11/25.

 

Compared to say, BTV where they've had their first measurable in October 21 times (since 1943), with an average first measurable of 11/6.

 

So will it be much colder than recent temps? Yes. Than normal? Unlikely.

 

Seasons preforming as seasons.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Climo is usually your friend. BDL has had their first measurable in October just three times (since 1949), with an average first measurable of 11/25.

 

Compared to say, BTV where they've had their first measurable in October 21 times (since 1943), with an average first measurable of 11/6.

 

So will it be much colder than recent temps? Yes. Than normal? Unlikely.

 

Seasons preforming as seasons.

 

That's all we can ask for.

Euro weeklies look pretty active end of Oct into first week in November. Wouldn't be surprised to see a snow threat develop for NNE or upstate NY. 

 

In general though looks pretty close to avg in terms of temperature. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

That's all we can ask for.

Euro weeklies look pretty active end of Oct into first week in November. Wouldn't be surprised to see a snow threat develop for NNE or upstate NY.

In general though looks pretty close to avg in terms of temperature.

height deviations are pretty high for that time would not be surprised if cold is stronger than modeled.
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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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height deviations are pretty high for that time would not be surprised if cold is stronger than modeled.

 

I haven't really dived into it tonight yet, but that could certainly be the case. Still would be pretty close to normal for NNE areas.

 

I think sometimes when we say "pattern change" and "colder than normal" in the same sentence, the translation becomes "mid Jan" around here. At least we can count on some people (yourself included) to get it.

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