Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Looks like decent cold shot Friday this week. that one wasn't seen a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Looks like decent cold shot Friday this week. that one wasn't seen a few days ago You mean this cold shot on Friday in the upper Plains and Great Lakes? That's been modeled for a while now there buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 14, 2013 Author Share Posted October 14, 2013 Looks like decent cold shot Friday this week. that one wasn't seen a few days ago I'm going 65 on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 You mean this cold shot on Friday in the upper Plains and Great Lakes? That's been modeled for a while now there buddy. You guys should take a look at GFS member P002's 12z depiction for the highly dependable and very likely to be spot on accurate 360 to 372 hour range... Has a nice NJ model bomb replete with CCB and the whole works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 I'm going 65 on Friday. Good luck to you BOX has 56 May the best win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Ryan FTW Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Well your boss wrote it so I assumed you had to either go with it or had some input I don't know who did and that is not my boss, nor dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 The pattern is epic from Dec on, but fluky wavelengths this time of year aren't equivalent. That's a nice pattern going forward, but the best cold will again be west. It doesn't mean we won't be prone to a big shot of cold air..just that the predominant cold is just west of us. As I said time and time again, the H5 pattern is what's most important and that pattern is a nice one for now when fast forwarding 2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 I don't know why folks always have to poo poo everything. Why can't mets get excited about a pattern change to colder? Why does it always have to be downplayed..and looked at skeptically. i just don't understand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Between the GEFS and EC, there's a lot of support for some "cold season storminess" beginning around the 23rd-25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Between the GEFS and EC, there's a lot of support for some "cold season storminess" beginning around the 23rd-25th What are your thoughts for Halloween time? Cold?White possibly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 I don't know why folks always have to poo poo everything. Why can't mets get excited about a pattern change to colder? Why does it always have to be downplayed..and looked at skeptically. i just don't understand it. Everything in the long range is looked at skeptically... don't you see that? It doesn't matter if its your torch to end all torches on the long range models in June or if its colder weather in October. They are consistently skeptical as most should be of long range progs...and they don't bias it based on the type of weather they want. This is what they do for a living, its not some hobby they use to make their lives more exciting by hyping weather. I really like that the mets don't hype and go all crazy over these long range progs just for the sake of excitement. They all have discussed it and said that it will get colder... no one has said a warm-up is coming. They just aren't cheerleaders for weather, they are professional who want to get it right without misleading folks. Most of the mets on here (if not all of them) are very consistent and not prone to wild swings. They get excited when its warranted...24 hours prior to a storm and that's it, lol. They aren't like the JB's who are out tweeting just for the sake of getting folks riled up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Everything in the long range is looked at skeptically... don't you see that? It doesn't matter if its your torch to end all torches on the long range models in June or if its colder weather in October. They are consistently skeptical as most should be of long range progs...and they don't bias it based on the type of weather they want. This is what they do for a living, its not some hobby they use to make their lives more exciting by hyping weather. I really like that the mets don't hype and go all crazy over these long range progs just for the sake of excitement. They all have discussed it and said that it will get colder... no one has said a warm-up is coming. They just aren't cheerleaders for weather, they are professional who want to get it right without misleading folks. Most of the mets on here (if not all of them) are very consistent and not prone to wild swings. They get excited when its warranted...24 hours prior to a storm and that's it, lol. They aren't like the JB's who are out tweeting just for the sake of getting folks riled up. No I don't see that and i don't agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 No I don't see that and i don't agree with that. What don't you see? They are pretty much professionally skeptical of most types of weather. They won't dry hump day 14 progs of hot weather or cold weather...wet weather or dry weather. And you don't agree that they should be reserved? You think everyone should become like the clown show that is BigJoeBastardi and post stuff just to rile people up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 What don't you see? They are pretty much professionally skeptical of most types of weather. They won't dry hump day 14 progs of hot weather or cold weather...wet weather or dry weather. And you don't agree that they should be reserved? You think everyone should become like the clown show that is BigJoeBastardi and post stuff just to rile people up? This isn't the banter thread and the way things are going around here lately and what this place has turned into..this isn't the thread to discuss this. I like a turn to much colder than normal around or just after the 20th. Those strong lake cutters have now disappeared off modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 This isn't the banter thread and the way things are going around here lately and what this place has turned into..this isn't the thread to discuss this. I like a turn to much colder than normal around or just after the 20th. Those strong lake cutters have now disappeared off modeling. True enough on the first part. What would be your forecast be... quantify "Much colder than normal." Just to put some perspective... averages from October 20th till the end of the month ranges as follows: ORH.... Highs ranging from 53-57 and lows 37-40. BDL... Highs ranging 57-61 and lows 37-40. So we'll be much lower than those values in this new pattern starting around the 20th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 14, 2013 Author Share Posted October 14, 2013 Good luck to you BOX has 56 May the best win The point and click for BDL is 60 from BOX. I'll take the over on that but I could see it ticking colder than my forecast. Westerly flow and weak cold advection generally makes me go milder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 My personal thoughts are that we end up closer to normal (say +1 to -2 for Oct 20-Halloween) than significantly below normal (like <-2)... normals are tanking this time of year and we are currently in a month that's been like +5. So even cooling off to normal will seem like a significant change. Remember, climo for Mansfield, CT shows average lows of 32-34 for the dates from Oct 20-31. So starting around the 20th, there should be frosts daily down there if the averages are near to just above freezing. To get a much below normal pattern it better be getting into the upper 20s quite regularly that last week of October down south outside the hilltops... or the hills better start seeing highs in the 40s or something. Basically I think there's a disconnect right now between those calling for much below normal and a "colder pattern"....it could end up near normal and still be a heck of a lot colder than it is right now. There will be a noticeable shift to colder, but it doesn't necessarily mean it ends up way below normal. Having the H85 freezing line in NNE is almost normal for late October and early November. Remember in Rocktober 2011 storm we had H85 temps of like -10C over NNE and like -6C to the Pike. That's much colder than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 I would think that this would be a place where Mets are allowed the freedom to think out of their day to day professional box. It used to be. Will for sure is more than willing to go out on a limb. It's fine to be conservative but to a point. Being overly conservative here has led to some late getting on the train episodes. I can without any problem though but getting face palmed when making salient points is not conducive to integrated conversation. The cold has in fact overperformed when colder weather is in the forecast. Modeling has had issues lately and so have some media and governmental forecasters. To be expected but those forecasters who were not rote model readers have succeeded.It was always nice logging on here and reading some different opinions. Lately conforming views are the norm. It's great reading posts like Sams, thinking ahead of modeling. Mike Ventrice has been spectacular. I hope like the old days to read some animated differing debate, makes for a great learning tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 The point and click for BDL is 60 from BOX. I'll take the over on that but I could see it ticking colder than my forecast. Westerly flow and weak cold advection generally makes me go milder. Well i was looking at mine which was 56..which maybe is a bit too cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 I would think that this would be a place where Mets are allowed the freedom to think out of their day to day professional box. I think that might happen if there wasn't so much chest thumping and "I was right, you were wrong" type stuff. I'm guilty of it just as much as the next person, but its like this board has become one big contest of who is right vs who is wrong.... If they start posting stuff that's outside the box, it gets shoved back at them down the road when it doesn't work out. You know how it goes... someone posts that a met said this or that and *this* is what actually ended up happening (haha, the pro met was wrong!). That guy CapeCodwx has mentioned it several times before... you can't just throw ideas up here anymore because it'll get used against you at a later time or something to that effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 I think that might happen if there wasn't so much chest thumping and "I was right, you were wrong" type stuff. I'm guilty of it just as much as the next person... If they start posting stuff that's outside the box, it gets shoved back at them down the road when it doesn't work out. You know how it goes... someone posts that a met said this or that and *this* is what actually ended up happening (haha, the pro met was wrong!). That guy CapeCodwx has mentioned it several times before... you can't just throw ideas up here anymore because it'll get used against you at a later time or something to that effect.Maybe but the guys here a lot more thick skinned and understand. What's wrong with Kev challenging Ryan? Getting butthurt over 5 degrees I am sure is not on Ryans top list of worries. I see one Met only here who will never admit he was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 14, 2013 Author Share Posted October 14, 2013 I would think that this would be a place where Mets are allowed the freedom to think out of their day to day professional box. It used to be. Will for sure is more than willing to go out on a limb. It's fine to be conservative but to a point. Being overly conservative here has led to some late getting on the train episodes. I can without any problem though but getting face palmed when making salient points is not conducive to integrated conversation. The cold has in fact overperformed when colder weather is in the forecast. Modeling has had issues lately and so have some media and governmental forecasters. To be expected but those forecasters who were not rote model readers have succeeded.It was always nice logging on here and reading some different opinions. Lately conforming views are the norm. It's great reading posts like Sams, thinking ahead of modeling. Mike Ventrice has been spectacular. I hope like the old days to read some animated differing debate, makes for a great learning tool. I don't mind going out on a limb or getting excited about a "possible" event/change but I don't know what there is to be excited about. Highs in the upper 40s or something with a northwest breeze in late October? I'll pass. I'm enjoying the AOA normal pattern for the time being and I don't really reasonably expect "fun" weather in terms of winter/snow until 11/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Those strong lake cutters have now disappeared off modeling. Not trying to nitpick, but I just went over the whole 00z and 12z suite and I don't see much of anything that has changed. There's still a predominate cutter pattern (or at least St. Lawrence Valley trackers) in the means with lows tracking generally north or west of New England. I know BOX mentions it in their AFD, too that the storm track stays north/west and only results in weak FROPAs passing through as those lows work their way off to our north. Nice cold shot on Sun/Mon on the models, but then we get into a return SW flow by early next week as another system takes shape near the Great Lakes and tracks NW of New England (cutter, not a strong one, but its definitely not going under us)... And the long range 12z GFS has plenty of cutter potential. IMO, these are the things that will keep us from averaging too far below normal... its like two days of southerly flow ahead of the systems, and then two days of NW flow behind the systems. If we start seeing lows track south of New England, then I'll buy into a more serious below normal pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 I don't mind going out on a limb or getting excited about a "possible" event/change but I don't know what there is to be excited about. Highs in the upper 40s or something with a northwest breeze in late October? I'll pass. I'm enjoying the AOA normal pattern for the time being and I don't really reasonably expect "fun" weather in terms of winter/snow until 11/15.I agree and over the years you have but for some reason lately it seems that the only posters mets here challenge are none Mets. I know professionally I get challenged sometimes daily by peers, and that has made me a better employee. Hopefully once an active pattern develops we are privileged to read some great debates without fear of retribution or belittlement by anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 PF I am of the opinion that the GFS may evolve further east with the trough as better sampling of downstream influences are incorporated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 14, 2013 Author Share Posted October 14, 2013 I agree and over the years you have but for some reason lately it seems that the only posters mets here challenge are none Mets. I know professionally I get challenged sometimes daily by peers, and that has made me a better employee. Hopefully once an active pattern develops we are privileged to read some great debates without fear of retribution or belittlement by anyone. Oh I'm fine with that... but you have to understand challenging Kevin is not mets vs non-mets... Kevin is looking for the attention. We know what he's looking for and it's not to discuss meteorology or to engage in a constructive discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 PF I am of the opinion that the GFS may evolve further east with the trough as better sampling of downstream influences are incorporated. Very possibly... but if not and the cold is centered in the Great Lakes, I think we end up near normal or maybe a touch below. But I'm not buying into the much below normal pattern developing unless these lows start getting progged to go under us. If they stay NW of us through the end of October, I think the last 10 days of the month feature stuff like a -5 to -10 day right behind a cold front, followed by a day or two of like -2 or something, then we get a day or two of like +5 to +10 (factor in overnight lows here, southerly flow ahead of a synoptic system going NW of us with overnight lows that will average mid 30s can easily keep temps up near 50F overnight) prior to the next cold front moving in. All in all, I could see the ups and downs canceling each other out for the most part. BUT, a normal pattern right now would still be like -4 to -7 from where we have been the first 1-2 weeks of this month. So the "feel" will be apparent but the numbers may not be as cold as the shock value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Oh I'm fine with that... but you have to understand challenging Kevin is not mets vs non-mets... Kevin is looking for the attention. We know what he's looking for and it's not to discuss meteorology or to engage in a constructive discussion.I don't care if anyone ever responds to me. I am a wx enthusiast and enjoy discussing the weather. They are my thoughts and opinions and for whatever reason, people seem compelled to respond to my thoughts. I've often wondered why my ideas are challenged and attacked like they are, but I've learned to accept it, and that there are different rules for different posters and moved on. This week seems to be our last AN period for a long long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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