Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 The 2002 flip we were looking for seems to be in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Man...there's a handful of weenie cold Januaries in those analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Man...there's a handful of weenie cold Januaries in those analogs. Yea seems a lot of signals lately are indicating Jan is pretty wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 I don't know how well those analog progs do but to see 1976-77, 1993-94, 1960-61, and 2002-03 has to make the cold and snow lover smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 BDR +6.7 MTD, knew we were warm,but that's a megatorch. BDL "only" +4.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 I don't know how well those analog progs do but to see 1976-77, 1960-61, and 2002-03 has to make the cold and snow lover smile. Yea even if for a day. What a wakeup day for New England sports and weather weenies. Their teams rocked it out and now modeling coming on board. Nice, congrats Sox, Pats fans what a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 BDR +6.7 MTD, knew we were warm,but that's a megatorch. BDL "only" +4.7 The other 4 SNE sites are all between +4 and +5, so a cold week would put a pretty good dent into that. It's still possible to finish below torch levels (+3) for the month. If the second half averages out normal that right there cuts these departures in half. The nights are killing us though. Groton and Stamford co-ops believe it or not will pass their average first freeze dates this week. BDR will pass their average first frost date this week, so even the warm spots in the state should be getting cold at night as normal lows are generally in the upper-30s and low-40s now. This might be another year that we go without fall frost or freeze advisories other than the lone one issued for northern Litchfield late last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 As we discussed that was the 11-15 day a few days ago. We will have yo-yo weather from Later this weekend through the next two weeks. It will not be constant cold. The 11-15 day as of now looks to avg a little below. The problem is that we cannot see storm track nuances so far out. It will probably be one of those thing where if we get a cold shot, it's a good one for a day or two, then we turn milder. Rinse and repeat. Couldn't agree more with this assessment. Pretty impossible to accurately time out these inevitable nuances in this 1-2 week forecast, but you pretty much know the current forecast is likely going to verify warmer on a couple days and colder on a couple days in this time frame. Man...there's a handful of weenie cold Januaries in those analogs. lol yup...that page has been dropping 2002, 1976, 1993, 2003, 1960, etc... every day since mid-last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 The other 4 SNE sites are all between +4 and +5, so a cold week would put a pretty good dent into that. It's still possible to finish below torch levels (+3) for the month. If the second half averages out normal that right there cuts these departures in half. The nights are killing us though. Groton and Stamford co-ops believe it or not will pass their average first freeze dates this week. BDR will pass their average first frost date this week, so even the warm spots in the state should be getting cold at night as normal lows are generally in the upper-30s and low-40s now. This might be another year that we go without fall frost or freeze advisories other than the lone one issued for northern Litchfield late last month. I thought they issued one for the first frost freeze regardless of date? Or do they give it up once we pass the average first frost/freeze date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 All out freeze in SE MA. 29 in Taunton. And I don't believe there were any watches/warnings for it. Temps even exceed my expectations of mid 30s. Forecast busted by a solid 8F-9F. I want to say 38F was the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 And I don't believe there were any watches/warnings for it. Temps even exceed my expectations of mid 30s. Forecast busted by a solid 8F-9F. I want to say 38F was the forecast. MAV guidance actually was chilly. I think BOX only thought it would be patchy...but it was ideal conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Picnic tables white next weekend? Its a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Picnic tables white next weekend? Its a start. Looks like some Lake effect snowfall for me...this is a weenie image haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Looks like some Lake effect snowfall for me...this is a weenie image haha. That probably wouldn't be lake effect snow in the lower elevations (ie, at least below 2,000ft). Maybe some graupel in heavier showers or something... but it still looks like the only snow chances would be in that 3,500-5,000ft elevations of the Adirondacks and then over into the northern Green summits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Fairbanks running well above normal and that prog should hold for the next 10 days. Nice wrt to lower propensity for the death vortex to sit and anchor itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Big 24 hrs coming up with weeklies out this evening and euro sips tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Cold and potentially snowy period coming up month end in early Nov http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/389757125053784064/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Cold and potentially snowy period coming up month end in early Nov http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/389757125053784064/photo/1 Shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 That probably wouldn't be lake effect snow in the lower elevations (ie, at least below 2,000ft). Maybe some graupel in heavier showers or something... but it still looks like the only snow chances would be in that 3,500-5,000ft elevations of the Adirondacks and then over into the northern Green summits. True, the surface isn't cold enough to support snow. We haven't had a decent hard freeze yet this season. Higher elevations may get traces of accumulation to a dusting though flurries could be flying around but I don't see nothing more. Its only October LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Shocking.The GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Shocking.The GEFS? The internet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Looks like a solid cold shot middle of next week as modeled as the PV reorients itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Scooter and JB agree https://twitter.com/wsi_energy/status/389816933073174528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 14, 2013 Author Share Posted October 14, 2013 Scooter and JB agree https://twitter.com/wsi_energy/status/389816933073174528 Agree on what? Cold for SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Agree on what? Cold for SNE? Apparently I wrote that tweet. He does realize they are speaking for areas outside the northeast too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 I'm heading to Seattle next week Monday returning Sunday 10/27. Looks fine out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 14, 2013 Author Share Posted October 14, 2013 Apparently I wrote that tweet. He does realize they are speaking for areas outside the northeast too? Yeah like... I don't know... the plains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Apparently I wrote that tweet. He does realize they are speaking for areas outside the northeast too?Well your boss wrote it so I assumed you had to either go with it or had some input Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Apparently I wrote that tweet. He does realize they are speaking for areas outside the northeast too? That JB graphic had the cold more centered in the Plains and Great Lakes anyway. This is not news. The core of any cold anomalies will be well west of New England. We certainly should feel some side affects of that though... much like heat in the midwest during the summer. Its not centered over us, but can sometimes sneak in or other times get denied (like ie. a cutter). Plus, what are we terming "cold" right now? Everyone keeps saying the cold is coming... what the heck are we measuring this by? Departures relative to normal? Normals are dropping like a rock this time of year, so even like 2 weeks from now its supposed to be significantly cooler than it is now, even just following climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Well your boss wrote it so I assumed you had to either go with it or had some inputWhen you assume you make an ass out of you and me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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