ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Had first flakes here at work apparently. Megan saw weenie flakes driving to work this morning around 6:30..she was in Sherborn MA on Rt 27 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Euro is dry for Sunday on any potential inverted trough...Sunday night looks like coldest of the year though. Quick brief shot of early December wx and then back to milder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Euro is dry for Sunday on any potential inverted trough...Sunday night looks like coldest of the year though. Quick brief shot of early December wx and then back to milder. Looked like some light OE precip over cstl SE MA, but far from the GFS bullseye in NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Good chance of BOS first freeze 11/4. A few days early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Euro is dry for Sunday on any potential inverted trough...Sunday night looks like coldest of the year though. Quick brief shot of early December wx and then back to milder. Yeah it's likely the GFS is on crack but ...still, it's been signaled in that model for many cycles now. It's worth it to mention however fleeting is the hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 By the way ... this may roll eyes but the NAVGEM flags a small zone of cold QPF approximate to where the GFS does for that D4 thing, and usually this model runs a pronounced dry bias in the middle range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Tip will love the evolution of the euro from day 7 to day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Tip will love the evolution of the euro from day 7 to day 10. What a clown scenario that would be...the lakes cutter gets cutoff...and then an arctic high presses down right as the low is trying to eject out of the OH Valley...looks like a 1993-1994 overrunning event except in November, lol. A 1050 sprawling high N of MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 SWFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 What a clown scenario that would be...the lakes cutter gets cutoff...and then an arctic high presses down right as the low is trying to eject out of the OH Valley...looks like a 1993-1994 overrunning event except in November, lol. A 1050 sprawling high N of MN. I know..LOL. Beautiful HP. I'm sure it will evolve just as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I know..LOL. Beautiful HP. I'm sure it will evolve just as shown. It will be back to a cutter up through Ottawa in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 even before the arctic unloads there late on the euro run...that HP that moves in after this weekend is pretty stout...1042ish as it crests over us. would again be some really chilly nights there either sunday and/or monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Tip will love the evolution of the euro from day 7 to day 10. looks like the euro's biases of overdoing e canada troughing and holding energy too far to the SW are working in tandem on this run to give that result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 looks like the euro's biases of overdoing e canada troughing and holding energy too far to the SW are working in tandem on this run to give that result Yeah I would agree...that is a bizarre evolution. One that occurs on long range model runs, but not in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 looks like the euro's biases of overdoing e canada troughing and holding energy too far to the SW are working in tandem on this run to give that result It's the kind of solution that would drive Tip to go nuts about the EC past day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Hopefully crack 32 Sunday or Monday night. Although the siting of my thermometer would give Dendrite a stroke, my low still is only 32.5 and it seems reasonable. Makes me feel better knowing Kevin hasn't cracked it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Hopefully crack 32 Sunday or Monday night. Although the siting of my thermometer would give Dendrite a stroke, my low still is only 32.5 and it seems reasonable. Makes me feel better knowing Kevin hasn't cracked it either. He hasn't? Wow, ORH has done it like 4 times now...even with their terrible radiating site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Tip the new Euro I thought had some hints of precip and cold air from that event too. Not going to hold my breath but interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 He hasn't? Wow, ORH has done it like 4 times now...even with their terrible radiating site That's what he said. I was shocked. I'll ask him again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 That's what he said. I was shocked. I'll ask him again. GYX has only done it 3 times (in the last four nights). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 He hasn't? Wow, ORH has done it like 4 times now...even with their terrible radiating site Leela Way has only dropped to 33 degrees at 850 FT. I've been in the upper 20s many nights, with 25 being the lowest so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 looked at the radar this morning and figured it had to be doing something out turned on the light and nothing looked out 5 minutes later and was snowing pretty good with pretty big flakes only lasted about 10 minutes but was awesome to see!! Megan saw weenie flakes driving to work this morning around 6:30..she was in Sherborn MA on Rt 27 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Tip the new Euro I thought had some hints of precip and cold air from that event too. Not going to hold my breath but interesting to see. Will mentioned that it was dry a while ago ... but I am noticing that it, too, has lag-back cyclonic curvature to the pp, with residual wind dynamics (mlv) passing just S of SNE latitude. I could see a convergence zone in there somewhere, with perhaps a poorly modeled band of cold QPF despite the Euro's dry print. I recall a couple of Norlund-esque scenarios last winter where the Euro did not perform very well. Plenty of time to iron this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 What in the f is the Euro doing !? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 You got a strong -EPO anomaly on this run playing right into it's zany bias to drill heights in SE Canada. I think the cold dump and big high idea may have some merit -- how much remains to be seen -- because of the antecedent -EPO that is agreed upon by numerous sources. But after that it's going too crazy -- imho. Also, the OV quasi-closed low is suspect because I think the run is lagging too much heights into the SW prior to ejection. Basically, idea candy only ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 monday could be a really chilly day. that's a great set-up to drill cold into SNE. 40 to 45F for an ave SNE high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 monday could be a really chilly day. that's a great set-up to drill cold into SNE. 40 to 45F for an ave SNE high? Yup. I can easily see BOS 43/30 high/low Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Leela Way has only dropped to 33 degrees at 850 FT. I've been in the upper 20s many nights, with 25 being the lowest so far. That's impressive for spots in interior New England away from the immediate cost to escape this past 7 days without a freezing temperature. There can't be many spots left in New England that haven't froze yet...especially at near 1000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I had 17 yesterday morning. That finished off any living plants. BTW... I saw the great snow pics from Stowe. I was at 4300 ft in the Whites that same day (Sat) and we had 3 inches of snow cover and low 20's at 1:00 PM. It was harsh. That's impressive for spots in interior New England away from the immediate cost to escape this past 7 days without a freezing temperature.There can't be many spots left in New England that haven't froze yet...especially at near 1000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Leela Way has only dropped to 33 degrees at 850 FT. I've been in the upper 20s many nights, with 25 being the lowest so far. That's impressive for spots in interior New England away from the immediate cost to escape this past 7 days without a freezing temperature. There can't be many spots left in New England that haven't froze yet...especially at near 1000ft. KTOL might be the last place...even ACK has Had frost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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