Tropopause_Fold Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Average 850s for this time of year are 2-4 right? yeah probably somewhere around that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Looks like we torch for the first two weeks, with little in the way of early elevation snow chances. Hopefully we see some changes come mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Yeah they were ice cold earlier so lets hope it continues. I firmly believe and see it continuing to happen that the depth of the positive AO was forecasted wrong and warming in mid Nov will bring the AO into negative territory, the trend has steadily increased each day. By mid month the process should be in full motion for a distinctly colder pattern. Does not mean we do not continue the yo yo but seems to be the cold will become much more firmly established heading into Dec. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I firmly believe and see it continuing to happen that the deptd of the positive AO was forecasted wrong and warming in mid Nov will bring the AO into negative territory, the trend has steadily increased each day. By mid month the process should be in full motion for a distinctly colder pattern. Does not mean we do not continue the yo yo but seems to be the cold will become much more firmly established heading into Dec. JMHO careful! that limb you just went out on looks really dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 careful! that limb you just went out on looks really dangerous. JMHO, if you are being sarcastic please refer to 12/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Despite all the warm talk ...which is certainly valid, that sneaky weak snow signal from a norlun of all things is still showing up in the GFS. Now, D4 Took a quick peek at the ensembles and many members have similar layouts... That day is a short duration pop of probably the coldest air yet .. then the big warming trend commences There is definitely a threat of interior elevation snows early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I don't really see any sign of a -AO or -NAO. It's locked + for a while which is fine. I see no reason why people are denying it or are scared on 10/30. Maybe later in November the +NAO weakens, but for now it's there. This is why I've been saying the Pacific is going to be much more important because we know the NAO is locked +. The Pacific is the bigger question mark and the good news is that any AK vortex is not appearing at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 JMHO i know. i was just joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 30, 2013 Author Share Posted October 30, 2013 I firmly believe and see it continuing to happen that the depth of the positive AO was forecasted wrong and warming in mid Nov will bring the AO into negative territory, the trend has steadily increased each day. By mid month the process should be in full motion for a distinctly colder pattern. Does not mean we do not continue the yo yo but seems to be the cold will become much more firmly established heading into Dec. JMHO I don't see that negative AO signal. Where are you seeing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Folks are hung up debating teleconnector modalities and it's all fascinating and all, but ... other area of interest is wind. Looks like sustain 40+mph middle boundary layer flow on Friday. Wonder what the gust potential is there, because we will be in warm sector ...well mixed environment that should be proficient for momentum transport. That could be a jet engine day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I don't see that negative AO signal. Where are you seeing that? Various model ENS, CFS, increasing number of Ens members pointing to a change Mid month, talking what would be day 15-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Folks are hung up debating teleconnector modalities and it's all fascinating and all, but ... other area of interest is wind. Looks like sustain 40+mph middle boundary layer flow on Friday. Wonder what the gust potential is there, because we will be in warm sector ...well mixed environment that should be proficient for momentum transport. That could a jet engine day. overhead maybe, looks like a solid inversion cool season event, maybe we gust with embedded convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I don't really see any sign of a -AO or -NAO. It's locked + for a while which is fine. I see no reason why people are denying it or are scared on 10/30. Maybe later in November the +NAO weakens, but for now it's there. This is why I've been saying the Pacific is going to be much more important because we know the NAO is locked +. The Pacific is the bigger question mark and the good news is that any AK vortex is not appearing at the moment. I don"t think expressing an opinion is denying it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Various model ENS, CFS, increasing number of Ens members pointing to a change Mid month, talking what would be day 15-20 Are there ensembles that are actually showing that happen or start to happen, or is it an interpretation of what they show and what you think would happen beyond the end of their runs? I'm just trying to find some ensemble mean which might suggest a large scale shift from + to - AO or NAO. Of course, we are all allowed to have our own interpretations and opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 overhead maybe, looks like a solid inversion cool season event, maybe we gust with embedded convection? 950-925 winds are certainly going to rip. when you start seeing 70 knots there that's good stuff. but certainly wouldn't describe it as a well-mixed environment. suppose it's not the same as having it happen in March when the profile is about as locked down with stability as it can be...but you're still tossing massive BL warmth northward and at best yielding a quasi-isothermal few thousand feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Are there ensembles that are actually showing that happen or start to happen, or is it an interpretation of what they show and what you think would happen beyond the end of their runs? I'm just trying to find some ensemble mean which might suggest a large scale shift from + to - AO or NAO. Of course, we are all allowed to have our own interpretations and opinions. Standard deviation Ens charts show higher than normal heights appearing in Greenland and the Arctic circle. Individual Ens members show a weakening of the PV heading into that time period, will this trend continue? I do not know ,I posted yesterday that the trend of more members dropping the AO value had continued, todays 12Z ENS are not out so we will see. If I am wrong not worrying but like I said its JMHO. I will check back next week and change if required. As I said this is not discussing the mean but rather individual Ens members which may shift the mean in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I don"t think expressing an opinion is denying it either. That's fine, but I get the sense people don't want to acknowledge the warmth. It's coming...people will have to deal. I take this as an opportunity to look ahead and know that the same pattern could certainly give us better chances of wintry wx in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 That's fine, but I get the sense people don't want to acknowledge the warmth. It's coming...people will have to deal. I take this as an opportunity to look ahead and know that the same pattern could certainly give us better chances of wintry wx in December. I guess i missed that correlation, not getting that sense here anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 There is definitely a threat of interior elevation snows early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 overhead maybe, looks like a solid inversion cool season event, maybe we gust with embedded convection? "Wonder what the gust potential is there, because we will be in warm sector ...well mixed environment that should be proficient for momentum transport." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 That's fine, but I get the sense people don't want to acknowledge the warmth. It's coming...people will have to deal. I take this as an opportunity to look ahead and know that the same pattern could certainly give us better chances of wintry wx in December. This warmth seems more like average temperatures to me for CNE and NNE other than this Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and maybe Sunday. Is there a warm signal beyond that which I don't see? Average highs should be around 50 degrees for CNE right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 "Wonder what the gust potential is there, because we will be in warm sector ...well mixed environment that should be proficient for momentum transport." certainly warm-sectored. but i think it's tough to call it a well-mixed environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 This warmth seems more like average temperatures to me for CNE and NNE other than this Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and maybe Sunday. Is there a warm signal beyond that which I don't see? Average highs should be around 50 degrees for CNE right? 2nd half of next week looks warm too...we'll be cold for a couple days early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 12z GFS a bit cooler in our cold shot on Nov 4 than previous. -8 to -10 850's ne ma. 8th to the 10th cold shot after cutter looks very similar in temps and length. Then another warm up, allbeit not as warm as previous two. Coldest air of year so far 12z for the 11-13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 12z GFS a bit cooler in our cold shot on Nov 4 than previous. -8 to -10 850's ne ma. 8th to the 10th cold shot after cutter looks very similar in temps and length. Then another warm up, allbeit not as warm as previous two. Coldest air of year so far 12z for the 11-13th.yo yo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Moderate snow burst from suspicious norlund signature ... these tend to rotate S in future runs and so we'll have to see. But the signal continues on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Congrat's Dendrite on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Had first flakes here at work apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Good years often start with a November snow not well modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Good years often start with a November snow not well modeled.Yup and fat squirrels. I keep feeding these bastards hoping it will increase snow cover in Siberia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.