Tropopause_Fold Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 any signs of storminess? We have yet to see a cutter if I'm not mistaken. would think thu/fri qualifies, no? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Light rain with some mashed flakes hitting the windshield here in Methuen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 What a cold azz rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 would think thu/fri qualifies, no? lol Gusts 75+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Rain is a little more robust then I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Gusts 75+? oh yeah of course...and widespread. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 What a cold azz rain. you'd just love the MA.....crabs and cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Light snow now in Portsmouth NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 brief cool down early next week then looks like the furnace is turned on...pretty warm stretch ahead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 brief cool down early next week then looks like the furnace is turned on...pretty warm stretch ahead? Yeah I think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Yeah I think so. how much longer do we give it before we start to worry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 If the Euro is right it could become fairly active across the southern states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 brief cool down early next week then looks like the furnace is turned on...pretty warm stretch ahead? I appears much of the 2nd half of next week could be pretty mild. It looks like it will cool down again after that though...but with the strongly +NAO, we will probably see a gradient develop as it tries to counteract the -EPO/-WPO so we'll def be prone to more torches. Canada looks quite cold so it won't be far away in this setup. There is no sustained cold in the near future though...every one of these past similar patterns didn't sustain cold. Usually a 1-2 day shot at best and then back to a couple warm days. There are some good signs though that if we stay patient, things could flip quite wintry toward the last week or two of November or into early December. That's a long ways out, but this pattern loads our source region with cold and most of them produced some nice looking patterns down the road. Of course, modeling can change quite a bit too in the 8-12 day range, so we'll have to keep an eye on it. Still, the one plus is no sign of persistent vortex over the EPO regions...and no real sign that the cooling shown on model guidance in the stratosphere is going to come to fruition...at least to the magnitude was shown. There's actually signs of a lot of warming in eastern Siberia in the medium range...which is favorable for us in November in trying to get a winter -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I appears much of the 2nd half of next week could be pretty mild. It looks like it will cool down again after that though...but with the strongly +NAO, we will probably see a gradient develop as it tries to counteract the -EPO/-WPO so we'll def be prone to more torches. Canada looks quite cold so it won't be far away in this setup. There is no sustained cold in the near future though...every one of these past similar patterns didn't sustain cold. Usually a 1-2 day shot at best and then back to a couple warm days. There are some good signs though that if we stay patient, things could flip quite wintry toward the last week or two of November or into early December. That's a long ways out, but this pattern loads our source region with cold and most of them produced some nice looking patterns down the road. Of course, modeling can change quite a bit too in the 8-12 day range, so we'll have to keep an eye on it. Still, the one plus is no sign of persistent vortex over the EPO regions...and no real sign that the cooling shown on model guidance in the stratosphere is going to come to fruition...at least to the magnitude was shown. There's actually signs of a lot of warming in eastern Siberia in the medium range...which is favorable for us in November in trying to get a winter -AO. good post. the weeklies keeping the higher heights in the epo region is basically the only thing i'm paying attention to for now. at least through mid month it seems a pretty positive NAO is locked in. november is always that hurry-up-and-wait time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 how much longer do we give it before we start to worry? I've worried a bit for a while. Warm/dry autumns never seem to work out well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I appears much of the 2nd half of next week could be pretty mild. It looks like it will cool down again after that though...but with the strongly +NAO, we will probably see a gradient develop as it tries to counteract the -EPO/-WPO so we'll def be prone to more torches. Canada looks quite cold so it won't be far away in this setup. There is no sustained cold in the near future though...every one of these past similar patterns didn't sustain cold. Usually a 1-2 day shot at best and then back to a couple warm days. There are some good signs though that if we stay patient, things could flip quite wintry toward the last week or two of November or into early December. That's a long ways out, but this pattern loads our source region with cold and most of them produced some nice looking patterns down the road. Of course, modeling can change quite a bit too in the 8-12 day range, so we'll have to keep an eye on it. Still, the one plus is no sign of persistent vortex over the EPO regions...and no real sign that the cooling shown on model guidance in the stratosphere is going to come to fruition...at least to the magnitude was shown. There's actually signs of a lot of warming in eastern Siberia in the medium range...which is favorable for us in November in trying to get a winter -AO. Are there signs of that showing up in the modelling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 brief cool down early next week then looks like the furnace is turned on...pretty warm stretch ahead?Euro ens show the yo yo continuing not furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Are there signs of that showing up in the modelling. There are no operational models that go out to late November or early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I think Will hit the nail on the head. If you look at the pattern we have now, it certainly argues for more warmer type intrusions along with cold shots as compared to..say 6 weeks from now. Canada is building up snow and cold big time and it's a matter of time before it seeps south and expands thanks to cold air induced high pressure. The euro ensembles seem to be all over the place with 50mb temps alternating warm and cold. I really don't see a strong signal either way, but they aren't the icebox they were 10 days ago. Just have to be patient and HOPE they the AK vortex does not show up. For now it appears it won't in the 11-15 day and possibly beyond, but a strong -PNA signal will make us torch prone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Kevin had wet flakes this morning. He runs the nYC marathon this weekend I think a lot of folks did...I know I had a brief period of mix around 05-0530 this morning. The second batch was all wet. First flakes of the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Euro ens show the yo yo continuing not furnace. I do think we will be furnace prone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Euro ens show the yo yo continuing not furnace. yo-yo? next week looks pretty furnace-like to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I do think we will be furnace prone though. Not the worst thing as long as the periods in between produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 30, 2013 Author Share Posted October 30, 2013 yo-yo? next week looks pretty furnace-like to me. Yeah I don't really see a yo-yo next week... looks furnacey. I think the signal beyond 11/15 is pretty unclear... which isn't a bad thing. I keep watching the D11-D15 ensembles for any sign of GOA death vortex and thankfully it hasn't popped up. If we do get that at some point early this winter it could be a real ugly stretch so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I think Will hit the nail on the head. If you look at the pattern we have now, it certainly argues for more warmer type intrusions along with cold shots as compared to..say 6 weeks from now. Canada is building up snow and cold big time and it's a matter of time before it seeps south and expands thanks to cold air induced high pressure. The euro ensembles seem to be all over the place with 50mb temps alternating warm and cold. I really don't see a strong signal either way, but they aren't the icebox they were 10 days ago. Just have to be patient and HOPE they the AK vortex does not show up. For now it appears it won't in the 11-15 day and possibly beyond, but a strong -PNA signal will make us torch prone. It looks like the trend has been warmer for stratospheric temps in eastern Siberia...which is exactly what we want in November. That is really the only region I care about up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 yo-yo? next week looks pretty furnace-like to me. Average 850s for this time of year are 2-4 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 It looks like the trend has been warmer for stratospheric temps in eastern Siberia...which is exactly what we want in November. That is really the only region I care about up there. Yeah they were ice cold earlier so lets hope it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Yeah I don't really see a yo-yo next week... looks furnacey. I think the signal beyond 11/15 is pretty unclear... which isn't a bad thing. I keep watching the D11-D15 ensembles for any sign of GOA death vortex and thankfully it hasn't popped up. If we do get that at some point early this winter it could be a real ugly stretch so we'll see. monday definitely looks chilly...and i guess HP nearby on Tuesday so maybe limited mixing day keeps places "cool" but looks quite mild wed onward. ec ens are like +8c later next week at 850...for early november...that's getting to be a handful above normal. not a shocker but i think you have to lean AN through 11/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Looks like the GFS/EURO both agree. Warm early Nov! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Despite all the warm talk ...which is certainly valid, that sneaky weak snow signal from a norlun of all things is still showing up in the GFS. Now, D4 Took a quick peek at the ensembles and many members have similar layouts... That day is a short duration pop of probably the coldest air yet .. then the big warming trend commences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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