Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 I'm seeing signs of a bigtime gradient pattern developing. Here is the GEFS for example but it drives the point home. Notice the Aleutian ridge here and troughing in the west along with SE ridge. Also MJO will try to move into the IO..more support for that pattern. To me, this means we certainly will ride the line and are prone to big swings in temps including torches. Too early to say where we end up. More importantly, lets hope the ridge stays put because if heights lower near AK, we will furnace. Good post! Yeah ...it's interesting. I was seeing that the N. Pacific is still flagging some weak AB phasing, and then finally ... ERSL updated their EPO index and show this to be true as both the WPO and EPO are slipping back negative. Meanwhile ... the PNA is splitting ...in the form of a Rex block in the far E. Pacific, and I was smoothing all this out in my mind as havng a cold load going on N of the border, while it is relatively balmy from the MV to the MA latitudes. Great minds think alike. If you were just going with the PNA-NAO-AO troika you'd be predisposed to an Indian Summer running up to the CAR! But ... if the EPO does load Canada, we can definitely get some wedging going on up under the N edge of any SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 there is a sneaky little "snow in the air" type signal ...now, D5 on the operational GFS, but it has been in the cycles now for days. Very consistent. It would be almost a "norlundy" lag back in the sfc pp, as a naked trough amplifies in the OV and shoots a jet streak near-by overhead. Thing is, ...the wave at 72 hours sort of explodes the baroclinicity seaward, leaving this trough with not much to work with. Just sayin' ...but the wind dynamics aloft are encouraging a weak surface trough signal, and there is light QPF dappled about the region as thickness are passing from marginal to critical. Yeah, NCEP picked upon on it in there PMD ... "IN THE CORE OF TRAILING COLD AIR EXPECT AN AREA OF RAIN S AND SNOW N/NW ACROSS THE GRTLKS INTO THE NORTHEAST..." Seems nutty to even mention considering it may pop 70F on Friday *MEX yeah this was mentioned the other day, something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 And, despite that ... wow what a Indian Summer signal on the la-la Euro range. It may be over digging the heights on the lee-side of the Rockies, which would translate to equal error in the heights in the E. We'll have to see which way the errors corrects. But as is, that's like 3 consecutive days of 70+ afternoons. Autumn roller coaster... Chilly today, 70'ish on Friday, chilly with flurries in the are early next week, than IS ... anyone wanna come along for ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 And, despite that ... wow what a Indian Summer signal on the la-la Euro range. It may be over digging the heights on the lee-side of the Rockies, which would translate to equal error in the heights in the E. We'll have to see which way the errors corrects. But as is, that's like 3 consecutive days of 70+ afternoons. Autumn roller coaster... Chilly today, 70'ish on Friday, chilly with flurries in the are early next week, than IS ... anyone wanna come along for ride! It feels wrong for me to say this, but I could go for one last nice warm period of a few days before winter settles in for good. Then drop the temps and let the snow come. The past week has been a great early taste of winter [up here]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 It feels wrong for me to say this, but I could go for one last nice warm period of a few days before winter settles in for good. Then drop the temps and let the snow come. The past week has been a great early taste of winter [up here]. Its too early to have winter set in for good...you might as well get the cutters and roller coaster pattern out of the way in early November when its not very useful anyway. For up there, you can have things set in around mid-November...for down here, I prefer closer to Thanksgiving and just after. Not that I don't love an early appetizer, but if I'm tryng to "establish" the snow cover and the winter pattern in general, I want to wait a bit later than the first week of November. Early and mid-November snows are generally going to melt...unless you are on the tops of the highest peaks. Whether its from 38F sunny days or a 65F torching cutter. Those 38F sunny days on November 8th are usually in a very "good pattern" but it still will melt your snow after it falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Its too early to have winter set in for good...you might as well get the cutters and roller coaster pattern out of the way in early November when its not very useful anyway. For up there, you can have things set in around mid-November...for down here, I prefer closer to Thanksgiving and just after. Not that I don't love an early appetizer, but if I'm tryng to "establish" the snow cover and the winter pattern in general, I want to wait a bit later than the first week of November. Early and mid-November snows are generally going to melt...unless you are on the tops of the highest peaks. Whether its from 38F sunny days or a 65F torching cutter. Those 38F sunny days on November 8th are usually in a very "good pattern" but it still will melt your snow after it falls. Yeah exactly...even at the peak, October snow never really hangs around (though I'm sure you could find a year it did) straight through. Even though we've been cold lately, the snow line has moved up near 2000ft right now. Sunshine and mid/upper 30s (while cold for late October highs) still melts snow, as you said.Even November snow can have trouble staying around...like last year we had a cold snowy Novie but lost all the snow up to 3000ft in early December torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 I remember the '86 and '87 snows fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 It feels wrong for me to say this, but I could go for one last nice warm period of a few days before winter settles in for good. Then drop the temps and let the snow come. The past week has been a great early taste of winter [up here]. One last warm hurrah in Novie can be pleasant ...get that last round of Golf in, perhaps some Tennis, or even camping and so forth, before winter kicks in ... Not sure how optimistic we should be about that period of time, though, as the Euro could be over doing things a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 One last warm hurrah in Novie can be pleasant ...get that last round of Golf in, perhaps some Tennis, or even camping and so forth, before winter kicks in ... Not sure how optimistic we should be about that period of time, though, as the Euro could be over doing things a bit. It look like it is. The ensembles are flatter with the ridge in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 It look like it is. The ensembles are flatter with the ridge in the east They are warm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 I remember the '86 and '87 snows fairly well.Me too. Freshman year at ULowell. Decent storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 They are warm too. Bummer. This may kill our chances for 35F and RA and leave us with nice weather for early Novie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Bummer. This may kill our chances for 35F and RA and leave us with nice weather for early Novie. This is disappointing. November is a winter month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 This is disappointing. November is a winter month. Lol ... no kidding though. I'm with Will on this one. I have seen snows ...good snows in first 15 days of November turn into shyt winters through early January. I have seen more white turkey-days end up with staying power, though. Not sure why that is, but it seems that having the things try to swing back warm in December is harder to do, then swinging back warm by turkey-day. Or it's all coincidence. I dunno. I'm not old enough to represent substantive experiential sample set. It's just based on my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2013 Author Share Posted October 29, 2013 This is disappointing. November is a winter month. Certainly more wintry than Morch! I could still see November averaging out above normal. Probably not a furnace but with wavelengths still relatively short... beware the SE ridge and a westward storm track. In general I'm fine with a crappy pattern until 12/1... it's hard to get something good this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Certainly more wintry than Morch! I could still see November averaging out above normal. Probably not a furnace but with wavelengths still relatively short... beware the SE ridge and a westward storm track. In general I'm fine with a crappy pattern until 12/1... it's hard to get something good this time of year. Toronto Maple Leaf disapproves. Looks like mid week near 11/7 is torchy again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Lol ... no kidding though. I'm with Will on this one. I have seen snows ...good snows in first 15 days of November turn into shyt winters through early January. I have seen more white turkey-days end up with staying power, though. Not sure why that is, but it seems that having the things try to swing back warm in December is harder to do, then swinging back warm by turkey-day. Or it's all coincidence. I dunno. I'm not old enough to represent substantive experiential sample set. It's just based on my memory. It's all in the same league as folks that don't like October snow because sometimes those winters suck (even though Will has proved no correlation)....I bet early Novie snows are in the same boat. It's sort of like that superstition that you are wasting a good winter pattern in Oct/Nov, which will inevitably switch by the time December and true winter rolls around. For one it's hard to get a good pattern for cold/snow to stick around for three months straight anyway (except in those best winters), but the cycle of patterns doesn't seem to have any problem going cold/snowy in Oct/Nov but then flip to sh*t for Dec/Jan. The perfect world is a pattern that comes in around Thanksgiving and gives snow/cold through the holidays before it inevitably snaps back the other way around January for the climo thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 The trend of increasing Ens members trending the AO NAO to negative territory by mid month continued today. GFS Ens MJO plots now want to reemerge in phase two mid month too. CFS weeklies show a very cold third week. I suspect the tend continues with some real colder sustained weather showing up mid month followed by a short term warmup. It's is possible during this period we see our first synoptic inland snow threat. Before that the Sun Monday Tuesday period has a good shot of cold air, this could provide interior els a light winter event as Tip discussed earlier and as was discussed earlier this week. Certainly something to watch post Fropa. Regarding the Fropa with an inversion in place winds could touch 50 on the cape and islands but should not be a huge issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 I think +NAO/AO is locked for at least a few more weeks. I see no signs of that changing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 I think +NAO/AO is locked for at least a few more weeks. I see no signs of that changing at all. try switching the numerator and denominator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 try switching the numerator and denominator Maybe Steve meant -(-NAO)?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Trend is increasing number of members seeing a phase change mid month, also 7 day forecasts for a stronger AO have so far been too high .CFS third week certainly shows a change. I will revisit this next week at the same time. Keep in mind this is third week stuff , Mid November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Well to clarify it may not have exactly been text book, but when these systems start to wrap colder air around the center you get the enhanced thermal gradient and sting jet. Tropopause folding is sometimes associated with this as well. In fact, I believe Ryan Maue posted a nice example of this from Sandy. Also, CAA just aloft aids in mixing. Think warm seclusion. Sorry to drag out a topic from a few days ago, but wasn't 12/9/05 also a sting jet? I seem to remember a presentation from Dave Vallee at BOX about this when I was interning there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Region wide? BOX is throwing out a whopping 20% pop in my pnc and nothing in the ZFP. Seems pretty consistent throughout their CWA. 41.8/29 Just for those wondering, a PoP below 25% (so slight chance or isolated wording) will not show up in the ZFP beyond the first period (today or tonight depending on the time of day). Always best to check the forecast graphics, hourly weather graph, or P&C to see what PoP is being forecast for your grid point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Sorry to drag out a topic from a few days ago, but wasn't 12/9/05 also a sting jet? I seem to remember a presentation from Dave Vallee at BOX about this when I was interning there. It definitely had some characteristics of it. I remember him mentioning that too so I think you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 It definitely had some characteristics of it. I remember him mentioning that too so I think you're right. I'm fairly certain there were strong elements of trop folding in that event. If I'm remembering correctly, the tropopause was down around 700 mb and convective elements in that low pressure were able to tap that higher momentum air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I'm fairly certain there were strong elements of trop folding in that event. If I'm remembering correctly, the tropopause was down around 700 mb and convective elements in that low pressure were able to tap that higher momentum air. That was a classic tropopause fold. Cape Cod was sniffing ozone accompanied by CATII winds. Vallee showed that winds from 3-4k were being mixed down in the comma head...lol. Also, the latent heat release in the lower levels helped to locally lower pressure as well. I also think the rapid intensification also aided in this phenomenon....I think some of the sting jet cases didn't necessarily have the low bombing like this one did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Sorry to drag out a topic from a few days ago, but wasn't 12/9/05 also a sting jet? I seem to remember a presentation from Dave Vallee at BOX about this when I was interning there.Great read here http://www.ces.slu.edu/Projects/DEVELOP/Project_Reports/2012_SLU_Tech_Paper_Final.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 34 degrees and the night is still young, I'm thinking I dip below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 sting jets come from shapiro-keyser cyclones... i don't think 12/05 was one. more likely a trop fold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.