Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

[Typhoon Tip]

Still though I think the ridging up there will help to keep it seasonal here and warmer further south

 

It's not a bad point, actually...  When I originally brought up the other teles I did also mention that buckling flow in Canada can wedge cooler air masses into our latitudes, and that those scenarios won't really be known at this sort of time lead.  

 

I think the EPO domain is as tricky to model as the NAO.  ...often demonstrating phase changes sometimes less than a week in length.  One run of the GFS has no block up there; the next, a +2 SD node.  We have already had an episode or two of higher heights there, so perhaps we are establishing seasonal trend. 

[Ginx snewx]

Word!   I'd take a wind-swept soaking rain at this point.  It's like that Star Trek Next Generation episode where they can't dream ... so they start going insane.  

 

I was wrong actually. I thought November was going to be a winter month this time, but I'm finding it harder and harder to see it that way with this:

 

warm.jpg

 

I haven't honestly seen the EPO dailies as of late, but it "looks" like the operationals are dismantling heights up there.  Then, the 18z GFS brings it right back in the goo-goo-ga-ga range.  I'm not sure that wild card is being entirely handled correctly with all these continuity shifts.

Teleconnections seem to indicate a warm period for sure, one item I have seen is the increased Ens teleconnection CPC indices showing a tendency towards dropping values of AO NAO as mid month approaches, perhaps an early indication of a phase flip. You are correct all these point to warmth, including the MJO phase 1 .

[Ginx snewx]

ESRL EPO hasn't updated since 10/23.

[Typhoon Tip]

Teleconnections seem to indicate a warm period for sure, one item I have seen is the increased Ens teleconnection CPC indices showing a tendency towards dropping values of AO NAO as mid month approaches, perhaps an early indication of a phase flip. You are correct all these point to warmth, including the MJO phase 1 .

 

 

Yeah... if last 15 days of Novie go winter, we win!   ha. 

 

I think my dream year  1995 was Novie 15 onward. 

 

Anyway, I didn't honestly see all these tele's going warm like this, though.  I have been out of it for 3 days and I'm going where in the hell is this coming from.  

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah... if last 15 days of Novie go winter, we win!   ha. 

 

I think my dream year  1995 was Novie 15 onward. 

 

Anyway, I didn't honestly see all these tele's going warm like this, though.  I have been out of it for 3 days and I'm going where in the hell is this coming from.

Models have really been all over the place with 5 H features since the typhoons, probably settling down as stability happens.

[CoastalWx]

I'm seeing signs of a bigtime gradient pattern developing.  Here is the GEFS for example but it drives the point home. Notice the Aleutian ridge here and troughing in the west along with SE ridge. Also MJO will try to move into the IO..more support for that pattern. To me, this means we certainly will ride the line and are prone to big swings in temps including torches. Too early to say where we end up. More importantly, lets hope the ridge stays put because if heights lower near AK, we will furnace.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

 

[N. OF PIKE]

Great post Scott.

And ya many were waiting for models to sort thru all the changes caused by the recurving T.C's

[CoastalWx]

I also think we could see some -SN down to the MA border of VT and NH near dawn tomorrow. Best chance is in VT.

[CoastalWx]

You can see best chance is north. Notice the system weakens as it traverses through. Lift weakens.

 

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Tonight may be one of those nights where the bottom falls out between 6-9pm or so and then the clouds come in the stop the drop or even rise a bit. If clouds come in sooner than it may be milder relatively speaking.

[toronto blizzard]

Really liking the look of the long range models this morning. No signs of any extended torch and active pattern looks to develop.

[powderfreak]

You can see best chance is north. Notice the system weakens as it traverses through. Lift weakens.

I could see some -SN obs tomorrow morning out of a GFL-RUT-VSF-CON axis as that slides through. Best chance is certainly south of me through CNE...good timing to maybe whiten the ground in a few spots in the early morning.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm seeing signs of a bigtime gradient pattern developing.  Here is the GEFS for example but it drives the point home. Notice the Aleutian ridge here and troughing in the west along with SE ridge. Also MJO will try to move into the IO..more support for that pattern. To me, this means we certainly will ride the line and are prone to big swings in temps including torches. Too early to say where we end up. More importantly, lets hope the ridge stays put because if heights lower near AK, we will furnace.

 

f312.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

 

Too bad it isn't about 4 weeks later. That would be a good pattern for wintry threats here around and after Thanksgiving.

[CoastalWx]

Too bad it isn't about 4 weeks later. That would be a good pattern for wintry threats here around and after Thanksgiving.

 

I hope it stays that way. We are definitely walking the line. 

[weathafella]

Let's let 2013-14 be like the winter 20 years earlier. There are some signs.

[toronto blizzard]

Let's let 2013-14 be like the winter 20 years earlier. There are some signs.

93-94 en route?

[CoastalWx]

93-94 en route?

 

Probably a suppressed track for you.

[powderfreak]

Don't you love when there's still hard frost in the shade at noon? Some areas will never "melt" today...a sign of the sun angle and season we are about to enter. Long shadows all day.

[CoastalWx]

46 here. Nice late Oct day.

[toronto blizzard]

Probably a suppressed track for you.

Had about 42 inches that winter. Several good storms that winter

[ORH_wxman]

Don't you love when there's still hard frost in the shade at noon? Some areas will never "melt" today...a sign of the sun angle and season we are about to enter. Long shadows all day.

 

 

This is a pretty darn cold airmass...that sprawling high coming in from the Canadian Praries with some snow cover support in Ontario and Quebec...the low level cold in this is probably a bit better than the 850 temps would indicate...plus the lower mixing when you have that light northerly flow.  

[weathafella]

Probably a suppressed track for you.

Had about 42 inches that winter. Several good storms that winter

lol....BOS had 96.3.

[CoastalWx]

Sign of the times. Some nice stratocumulus rolling in off the water.

[powderfreak]

This is a pretty darn cold airmass...that sprawling high coming in from the Canadian Praries with some snow cover support in Ontario and Quebec...the low level cold in this is probably a bit better than the 850 temps would indicate...plus the lower mixing when you have that light northerly flow.  

 

Yeah this one over-performed in the low levels... MPV beat their old record by 5F.

 

36F here at midday is pretty nice for October 29th... very similar to the 2011 airmass up here.

 

The view from the West Slope... Mansfield glowing in the sun.

 

 

Like mid-winter day at the ski resort.  This stuff is going to melt incredibly fast on Thurs/Friday, lol.

 

[ORH_wxman]

lol....BOS had 96.3.

 

 

I still find that hard to believe...given that whole pattern. I mean, I'd expect BOS to do well in that gradient pattern, but not get nearly 100" of snow. It was so cold though. I recall many events that were supposed to have a lot of sleet taint that ended up being mostly snow...or events that were supposed to flip quickly that took much longer to.

[CoastalWx]

I'd kill for that...this area I'm in now got smoked.

[powderfreak]

lol....BOS had 96.3.

 

holy crap.  That's huge for BOS.  Was that mostly over-running SWFE?

[N. OF PIKE]

holy crap. That's huge for BOS. Was that mostly over-running SWFE?

Seems like best way to rack up early season snows and avoid change overs in (coastal sections) before ocean cools alot later in january (aside from hoping for perfect tracking coastal storms )

[ORH_wxman]

I'd kill for that...this area I'm in now got smoked.

 

 

Prob got over 100" there that winter.

[Typhoon Tip]

there is a sneaky little "snow in the air" type signal ...now, D5 on the operational GFS, but it has been in the cycles now for days.  Very consistent.  It would be almost a "norlundy" lag back in the sfc pp, as a naked trough amplifies in the OV and shoots a jet streak near-by overhead.  Thing is, ...the wave at 72 hours sort of explodes the baroclinicity seaward, leaving this trough with not much to work with.  Just sayin' ...but the wind dynamics aloft are encouraging a weak surface trough signal, and there is light QPF dappled about the region as thickness are passing from marginal to critical. 

 

Yeah, NCEP picked upon on it in there PMD ... "IN THE CORE OF TRAILING COLD AIR EXPECT

AN AREA OF RAIN S AND SNOW N/NW ACROSS THE GRTLKS INTO THE
NORTHEAST..."    

 

Seems nutty to even mention considering it may pop 70F on Friday *MEX