toronto blizzard Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 I do think we will probably see more of a gradient pattern setting up with the warmest temperature anomalies over the south/southeast and more seasonal temps over the GL/Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 I really am not seeing a warm pattern looks on average for the seven day period post fropo slightly BN Based on what ? NAO positive PNA negative AO positive MJO weakening these are all warm signals, AND, the operational runs are flagging the emergence of a SE ridge, ...which fits. People, can we keep it realistic and not start nibbling and eroding/spinning on auto-pilot the moment someone sees something other than a winter pattern. The collective denial/deluding of truth has grown tiresome -- I hate that. It is what it is; just accept it. Now, whether it gets "subjectively" warm, or warmer or whatever the frig we want to call it, there is no way the current teleconnector spread supports much cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Nice! I saw earlier that some coastal city in the U.K. gusted to 99 mph.see my edited post, apparently bigger than Garretts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Based on what ? NAO positive PNA negative AO positive MJO weakening these are all warm signals, AND, the operational runs are flagging the emergence of a SE ridge, ...which fits. People, can we keep it realistic and not start nibbling and eroding/spinning on auto-pilot the moment someone sees something other than a winter pattern. The collective denial/deluding of truth has grown tiresome -- I hate that. It is what it is; just accept it. Now, whether it gets "subjectively" warm, or warmer or whatever the frig we want to call it, there is no way the current teleconnector spread supports much cold. But the EPO will be negative which will somewhat fight the SE ridge to a degree which is why I don't think the warmth gets that far North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 But the EPO will be negative which will somewhat fight the SE ridge to a degree which is why I don't think the warmth gets that far North A -EPO is more ridging into AK, not Aleutians. You can argue the ridging modeled covers part of the domain, but it is not a classic -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Plus it is the transition season so ..heh, could all be a red herring. True, not much of a signal for any blocking so any cool shot that does occur will likely be pretty short-lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Based on what ? NAO positive PNA negative AO positive MJO weakening these are all warm signals, AND, the operational runs are flagging the emergence of a SE ridge, ...which fits. People, can we keep it realistic and not start nibbling and eroding/spinning on auto-pilot the moment someone sees something other than a winter pattern. The collective denial/deluding of truth has grown tiresome -- I hate that. It is what it is; just accept it. Now, whether it gets "subjectively" warm, or warmer or whatever the frig we want to call it, there is no way the current teleconnector spread supports much cold. based on the Euro and it's Ens. Didn't say cold, said Slightly below normal.Drop the BS attack about delusional too. It's my opinion, you don't need to deride it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 A -EPO is more ridging into AK, not Aleutians. You can argue the ridging modeled covers part of the domain, but it is not a classic -EPO. Still though I think the ridging up there will help to keep it seasonal here and warmer further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 BTW how did the 12z euro ensembles look like? Also how did the weeklies look wrt to the H5 pattern for weeks 3&4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Still though I think the ridging up there will help to keep it seasonal here and warmer further south Yeah it probably won't be far from normal either way when averaged out. I do think we are prone to cutters starting this week, but each one has a shot of cold behind it. Stop worrying. BTW how did the 12z euro ensembles look like? Also how did the weeklies look wrt to the H5 pattern for weeks 3&4? The ensembles were near normal here..a little above for you in the 11-15 day. Weeklies were near to slightly below week 3 and 4. Again, nothing to write home about, but nothing really concerning yet. I'd take this in December if we can hold it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Yeah it probably won't be far from normal either way when averaged out. I do think we are prone to cutters starting this week, but each one has a shot of cold behind it. Stop worrying. The ensembles were near normal here..a little above for you in the 11-15 day. Weeklies were near to slightly below week 3 and 4. Again, nothing to write home about, but nothing really concerning yet. I'd take this in December if we can hold it. Yes it would be a great pattern in December but as long as were not seeing that AK vortex then it's good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Nice! I saw earlier that some coastal city in the U.K. gusted to 99 mph. http://m.cbsnews.com/postmostwatch.rbml?videoid=50158037&feed_id=46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Yeah it probably won't be far from normal either way when averaged out. I do think we are prone to cutters starting this week, but each one has a shot of cold behind it. The up and down.... it warms up above average, then it rains, then it cools down to below normal and is dry. The usual fall roller-coaster that all ends up averaging about normal in precipitation and temperatures. Its a pattern that week by week the departures will depend on where in that cycle we are, lol. I still lean slightly warmer than normal just based on any pattern these days that doesn't have an overwhelmingly cold look to it, tends to find a way to be a little warmer at verification time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 The up and down.... it warms up above average, then it rains, then it cools down to below normal and is dry. The usual fall roller-coaster that all ends up averaging about normal in precipitation and temperatures. Its a pattern that week by week the departures will depend on where in that cycle we are, lol. I still lean slightly warmer than normal just based on any pattern these days that doesn't have an overwhelmingly cold look to it, tends to find a way to be a little warmer at verification time. hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 hmmm ? I don't like it anymore than you do, but the nod in the past 15 years has been towards the warmth. In a pretty neutral-looking situation, that fact is hard to ignore if one was to try to make an accurate monthly forecast. If we were betting, with absolutely no met skill at all, just by guessing an above normal month each and every month, you'd be correct like 75% of the time. Time for some snowman stats for above normal months vs. below normal months, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 http://m.cbsnews.com/postmostwatch.rbml?videoid=50158037&feed_id=46 Considering the hurricanes this season didn't really exist, there should a heck of a lot of heat energy left in the oceans. Combine that with the Canadian/N. Pole cold and something has to give. Wonder if this means anything for us... One can only hope. Probably not next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 based on the Euro and it's Ens. Didn't say cold, said Slightly below normal.Drop the BS attack about delusional too. It's my opinion, you don't need to deride it. I do when people wait until any warm post is made, at all, then deliberately counter whether they are right or not. There are those that are apparently not aware both of how often they do that, but how annoying it gets. And no ...no objective user of this Euro mean would say slightly below, either --- again, you spin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 ? I don't like it anymore than you do, but the nod in the past 15 years has been towards the warmth. In a pretty neutral-looking situation, that fact is hard to ignore if one was to try to make an accurate monthly forecast. If we were betting, with absolutely no met skill at all, just by guessing an above normal month each and every month, you'd be correct like 75% of the time. Time for some snowman stats for above normal months vs. below normal months, lol. It doesn't. Work that way though, my area 2013 based on BDL 5 months above 5 months below, my local area is 6 below 4 above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 There's a cold shot there but short lived. Air then could actually be colder than now for a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 BS Mr Met, I will repeat what I said, the seven day post fropo period will be slightly below normal. We will revisit the Sun to Sun BDL average next week. If you go back to the original post I said, November 3 through the 12th. We may be talking two different time periods ? I dunno. But there is no way the current tele's spread supports even slightly below normal during that time range. sorry, it just doesn't. Perhaps things change between now and then...okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 If you go back to the original post I said, November 3 through the 12th. We may be talking two different time periods ? I dunno. But there is no way the current tele's spread supports even slightly below normal during that time range. sorry, it just doesn't. Perhaps things change between now and then...okay. Tip, you quoted me, my post clearly said seven days after the fropo, called me delusional, etc. c'mon man then you expect me to roll over like the Jets? Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Tip, you quoted me, my post clearly said seven days after the fropo, called me delusional, etc. c'mon man then you expect me to roll over like the Jets? Seriously? No I did not. Again ... I said PEOPLE ....can we COLLECTIVELY And which fropa ...there's 3 waves on the operational runs that support a fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Interesting end to the 18z GFS up in Canada.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 No I did not. Again ... I said PEOPLE ....can we COLLECTIVELY And which fropa ...there's 3 waves on the operational runs that support a fropa. Fropa Sat, odd you quoted my assertion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Get that hatrix going...back to WWBB days thanks to widremann. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Fropa Sat, odd you quoted my assertion. I have no idea what that bold comment stems from. And no then....the teles don't support that period of time for cooler profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 That right there is a classic cold shot into the midwest. 240 hr fantasy land, but we really need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Lol -- I'm half f with him. I think he knows that. Lol -- I'm half f with him. I think he knows that.Same with me, need some weather. The up and down pattern Scooter describes is really represented well in this 18 Z GFS , I like this link, clickable , anything that is underlined is clickable. One major glaring item is besides the wet fropa this week is its boring http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Korh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Same with me, need some weather. The up and down pattern Scooter describes is really represented well in this 18 Z GFS , I like this link, clickable , anything that is underlined is clickable. One major glaring item is besides the wet fropa this week is its boring http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Korh Word! I'd take a wind-swept soaking rain at this point. It's like that Star Trek Next Generation episode where they can't dream ... so they start going insane. I was wrong actually. I thought November was going to be a winter month this time, but I'm finding it harder and harder to see it that way with this: I haven't honestly seen the EPO dailies as of late, but it "looks" like the operationals are dismantling heights up there. Then, the 18z GFS brings it right back in the goo-goo-ga-ga range. I'm not sure that wild card is being entirely handled correctly with all these continuity shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Should be wind advisories flying for this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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