CT Rain Posted October 28, 2013 Author Share Posted October 28, 2013 which model? Yes that's what I'm wondering to. No model says that I actually don't see much of a signal either way. Doesn't look terribly exciting or cold. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 I actually don't see much of a signal either way. Doesn't look terribly exciting or cold. Meh. A near-normal November is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 I actually don't see much of a signal either way. Doesn't look terribly exciting or cold. Meh. Yeah that's my stance as well...I could see it going either way. However with what has been happening with temps in the last several years, the probability would be on above normal over below normal, lol. Getting a below normal month as a whole is like pulling teeth while +1 or +2 is the new normal haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2013 Author Share Posted October 28, 2013 Yeah that's my stance as well...I could see it going either way. However with what has been happening with temps in the last several years, the probability would be on above normal over below normal, lol. Getting a below normal month as a whole is like pulling teeth while +1 or +2 is the new normal haha. Pretty much. Watch the SE ridge try to flex a bit... we've been saved by the ridging over AK of late... if that gives up for a bit we may start torching with a storm track to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 29 degrees currently... hopefully we can get some snow in the air soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Looks like the GFS is beginning to slow things down--at least the heavier stuff. Boy, my 37.3* sticks out like a sore thumb this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Looks like the GFS is beginning to slow things down--at least the heavier stuff. Boy, my 37.3* sticks out like a sore thumb this morning. Try this map - Nobody really sticks out but you can temps in the mid-30 further north in Vermont as well. Mid-20s here, FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Try this map - Nobody really sticks out but you can temps in the mid-30 further north in Vermont as well. Mid-20s here, FTW. I guess my focus was on all the sites in western MA. on your mid-20's! You should get a nice range today. Funny to see the meager pops (20% pnc/dry ZFP) on Wednesday/night given the somewhat more exciting comments in the AFD similar to what Scott was saying yesterday. 38.2/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Clouds and light mixing have kept temps up a bit over the deep interior. I was 28F after the Sox game but 36F when I woke up. Tonight should be the coldest night of October for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 more frost this AM. UUU at 34 coldest so far. OT - took my son to UMASS - Amherst yesterday for an open house - was really windy (overheard someone say welcome to UMASS where the wind is always in your face). told him if he decides to go there he'll have to start wearing a coat , hat and gloves in the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 37 here. Hopefully touvhing 32 tonight. 32.5 has been the low so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Chlly morning and happy to be back in Boston after a grueling week. Also glad to see the big yellow today. Seattle doesn't see much this time of year through winter. Despite a clear regime, between fog that never fully burned off and then when systems started moving overcast and rain, I don't think I saw the sun more than a few minutes after I left Boston last Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Light frost on car tops here. Models look like rinse and repeat. Cutters and mild air with lagging cold fronts that bring shots of transient cold air before another cutter hits. Euro looks a little chillier than gfs at this time with on the 3rd/4th of November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Trough in the west is becoming deeper on guidance for next week...that should give us another round of warmer weather after the cooldown on Sunday/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 which model? Yes that's what I'm wondering to. No model says that I could see warmer. I actually don't see much of a signal either way. Doesn't look terribly exciting or cold. Meh. I see cold locked north of us, meh cold shots, mild temps for a good portion of the beginning of the month. Just to clarify. I'm not predicting torch levels, but I think at least at average and likely over unless there is a pattern change that shows its face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Chlly morning and happy to be back in Boston after a grueling week. Also glad to see the big yellow today. Seattle doesn't see much this time of year through winter. Despite a clear regime, between fog that never fully burned off and then when systems started moving overcast and rain, I don't think I saw the sun more than a few minutes after I left Boston last Monday. Welcome back, west coast weather seems awfully boring compared to east of the Rockies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Looks like an AN first week of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Looks like an AN first week of November.What about second week? Pattern still looks like ridging around Aleutians/ GOA into second week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Clipper type system sneaky cold on the 4th 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 chance of non accumulating flakes for interior els per Box .AND IT IS HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE OF SEEING SHOWERS OVERTHE REGION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SNOW AT ONSET. IF THE IMPULSECAN CAPTURE AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THEN IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE TO SEE ADVERTISED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTSUP TO A FEW TENTHS. THE GFS HAS CONSIDERABLY MORE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIRCOMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN...SO MAY TREAT IT AS AN OUTLIER.WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIQUID. CONFINEAN INITIAL ONSET OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST HIGHER TERRAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 What about second week? Pattern still looks like ridging around Aleutians/ GOA into second week. Trough in the west still means you run the risk of warmer wx. Also ridge tries to retro which isn't the best for us. At least as currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 chance of non accumulating flakes for interior els per Box .AND IT IS HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE OF SEEING SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SNOW AT ONSET. IF THE IMPULSE CAN CAPTURE AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... THEN IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE TO SEE ADVERTISED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UP TO A FEW TENTHS. THE GFS HAS CONSIDERABLY MORE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN...SO MAY TREAT IT AS AN OUTLIER. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIQUID. CONFINE AN INITIAL ONSET OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST HIGHER TERRAIN. Mentioned this yesterday but best chance N as warmer 850 air comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Clipper type system sneaky cold on the 4th 5th Looks like late on the 6th cold shot moves in that clipper moves through. That clipper on the 8th. Cold air moves out on 10th. Cutter moving in from west. Given this is fantasy range with details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Trough in the west still means you run the risk of warmer wx. Also ridge tries to retro which isn't the best for us. At least as currently modeled. This would probably be a pretty good pattern in December. The PNA has a larger influence on us in Oct/Nov versus December...in December, the EPO will dominate the PNA more heavily in our area...so we get that nice latitude gradient when we have -PNA/-EPO pattern...in Oct/Nov this early, we tend to see the warmth spread further north along the east coast in that pattern...which is kind of what is being shown with this cold shot, warmup, cold shot, warmup, rinse and repeat type pattern we are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Low of 27F this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 This would probably be a pretty good pattern in December. The PNA has a larger influence on us in Oct/Nov versus December...in December, the EPO will dominate the PNA more heavily in our area...so we get that nice latitude gradient when we have -PNA/-EPO pattern...in Oct/Nov this early, we tend to see the warmth spread further north along the east coast in that pattern...which is kind of what is being shown with this cold shot, warmup, cold shot, warmup, rinse and repeat type pattern we are in. Yeah exactly. As the snowpack builds and wavelengths lengthen it would be better in December, but it's kind of a yo-yo deal currently. It's not the best now which is basically what I mean. I just hope we don't lose that ridging.....I'm still unsure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Based off the models forecasted +NAO, +AO and -PNA to start Nov. it looks like something like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Yeah exactly. As the snowpack builds and wavelengths lengthen it would be better in December, but it's kind of a yo-yo deal currently. It's not the best now which is basically what I mean. I just hope we don't lose that ridging.....I'm still unsure about that. The PNA is kind of weird...it's impact seems to be minimized for us in Dec/Feb/Mar but is larger in January and also in latter October and early November. Its a noticeable difference in correlation to our temps. Regardless, still no sign of a death vortex forming over the EPO region this month, which has to be a good thing. The PV up into the stratosphere is having trouble cooling as much as guidance wanted it to last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 The PNA is kind of weird...it's impact seems to be minimized for us in Dec/Feb/Mar but is larger in January and also in latter October and early November. Its a noticeable difference in correlation to our temps. Regardless, still no sign of a death vortex forming over the EPO region this month, which has to be a good thing. The PV up into the stratosphere is having trouble cooling as much as guidance wanted it to last week. What does this part mean in the bolded for the pattern? Sorry if this has been explained already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 What does this part mean in the bolded for the pattern? Sorry if this has been explained already. Having a cold, wrapped up PV in the stratosphere has been correlated to a higher tropospheric PV as well. PV meaning polar vortex. If you can have some sort of warming in the stratosphere, you'll disturb this vortex through a variety of ways, but the basic point is that it helps prevent a +AO from being prevalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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