Allsnow Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 we go back below normal and the following week looks like we finally have something strong to track, could be an interior elevation fun What leads you to believe this? The guidance i'm looking at offers little support to this claim. Scooter even saying its a bit to soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Man this blows. I was doing some number crunching with monthly sunspot numbers (dating back to 1749) and the December state of the NAO (I will also go ahead and do February, March, and DJF/DJFM) using Hurrell's PC-Based version of the NAO which goes back to 1899. Anyways, I started by getting all the negative NAO December NAO's from 1899 to 2012. I found 53 Negative NAO December's since 1899. For these 53 years, I then looked at the monthly sunspot numbers for each month of the year with the negative NAO. I wrote down a range, with the first number being the smallest (lowest) sunspot value for that 12-month period, and the second number being the biggest (largest) sunspot value for that 12th month period. From here I then broke down the data as follows; Lowest sunspot numbers for that 12 month period were between 0-100, lowest sunspot numbers 101+, highest sunspot numbers for that 12 month period between 0-100 highest sunspot numbers for that 12 month period 101+. Anyways what I found was that 94.3% of -NAO Decembers occurred when the lowest sunspot numbers for that 12 month period were between 0-20, 5.7% of -NAO Decembers occurred when the lowest sunspot numbers for that 12 month period were greater than or equal to 101. 66% of -NAO Dec's occurred when the highest sunspot values for that 12 month period were between 0-100 and 34% of -NAO Dec's occurred when the highest sunspot numbers for that period were >101. I got pretty excited doing that...then I went to work on +NAO December. I found 61 +NAO December's between 1899-2012. Anyways, doing the same method, 88.5% of +NAO Decembers also occurred when the lowest sunspot numbers for that 12-month period were between 0-100 and 65.6% of +NAO Dec's occurred when the highest sunspot numbers for that 12 month period were >101. The data set breakdown is nearly identical for +/- NAO December's. Going to try some different methods now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 What leads you to believe this? The guidance i'm looking at offers little support to this claim. Scooter even saying its a bit to soon. interior elevations in New England not NJ and 11-15 day ENS, pattern recognition, teleconnections, rolling forward analogs. Besides that you have stated you don't pay attention to anything I say so please don't I would rather not interact with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Warm night. 50s in the middle of the night in late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 interior elevations in New England not NJ and 11-15 day ENS, pattern recognition, teleconnections, rolling forward analogs. Besides that you have stated you don't pay attention to anything I say so please don't I would rather not interact with you. Those rolling foward analogs seem to change every other day, i would not put much stock in them. I think the pattern going forward offers little hope for any interior fun. Still a little to early also.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 What leads you to believe this? The guidance i'm looking at offers little support to this claim. Scooter even saying its a bit to soon. I meant that you shouldn't expect it so soon. Of course you can have events sneak up on you, but most of these won't be seen 10+ days out. At times there looked like a potential for at least interior stuff, but I would not expect anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 I meant that you shouldn't expect it so soon. Of course you can have events sneak up on you, but most of these won't be seen 10+ days out. At times there looked like a potential for at least interior stuff, but I would not expect anything yet. Oh okay, Do you think Boston has a shot at 32 tuesday night? Ewr was down to 33 last night, while NYC was 41. The heat island kills them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Oh okay, Do you think Boston has a shot at 32 tuesday night? Ewr was down to 33 last night, while NYC was 41. The heat island kills them. I don't know. My guess is they might get to 33-34 or so. I've seen BOS hit their first 32F on their first snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 I don't know. My guess is they might get to 33-34 or so. I've seen BOS hit their first 32F on their first snow lol. lol. Same with NYC, gets later every year it seems also. 2011 they did not do it until 12/10, typical now is late November or early December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 A few sprinkles here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Just saying looked like nothing special. Maybe near to slightly below. Normal in November's is reasonably good. It was a snowy day up at SLK based on these observations... First 1/2sm obs I've seen this year from an ASOS. We got down to 0.75sm this morning in snow at MVL, but couldn't get all the way to moderate. image.jpg Per the "hated" weather terms thread, that's nearly whiteout conditions. Have folks backed off the thoughts they had yesterday for a cold Tuesday/night? BOX didn't have it yesterday and they don't have it there today either. They're forecasting Monday night on the chilly side, though. Mild morning. 40.2/39 Let's hope the Friday scenarios play out for the trick-or-treaters. BOX says so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Cold rain here earlier. 42.8 Looks like euro ensembles are near normal in the 11-15 day. GEFS cooler. Again, nothing impressive this morning. Not really a strong poleward ridge, but it's there nonetheless. A bit flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 interior elevations in New England not NJ and 11-15 day ENS, pattern recognition, teleconnections, rolling forward analogs. Besides that you have stated you don't pay attention to anything I say so please don't I would rather not interact with you.lol - classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Thoughts on GFS for 10/31-11/1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Possible shot at another one of those tropical rain/iso thunder outbreaks next week. GFS showing loads of convective precip breaking out in SNE next week at 126 hours, with what looks like a fairly tropical connection to the Gulf. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Had to post this for all the picnic table comments... this isn't "my" 4k picnic table, but it looks like Whiteface in the Adirondacks has a picnic table that'll work for now... This past week has been a good "storm cycle" (I guess you could call it that with several rounds of energy moving through since Wednesday) for the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Greens with meso-scale mixed with synoptic snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 BOX really seeing cold Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 BOX really seeing cold Tuesday AWT from three dys ago. Euro also has flakes for some on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 AWT from three dys ago. Euro also has flakes for some on Wednesday. Could be an inch or two in interior NH/VT Wednesday morning verbatim. Little s/w coming out of the OH Valley that generates some lift, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 AWT from three dys ago. Euro also has flakes for some on Wednesday. Is it Monday or Tuesday night that's the coldest? Looking like Tuesday morning is coldest of the season, right? BTV is going full bore cold on Monday night..,teens to low 20s, with even some single digits at like SLK. Not bad for October. "Monday night will be very cold with clearing skies and mainly light winds creating a good radiational cooling night...min temperatures will be in the teens to low 20s with some single digits in the coldest spots of the dacks." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Could be an inch or two in interior NH/VT Wednesday morning verbatim. Little s/w coming out of the OH Valley that generates some lift, Nice to have you back on the board for the winter dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 AWT from three dys ago. Euro also has flakes for some on Wednesday.Yup. You saw that clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 nam has a good amount of precip wednesday and the gfs has almost none! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Is it Monday or Tuesday night that's the coldest? Looking like Tuesday morning is coldest of the season, right? BTV is going full bore cold on Monday night..,teens to low 20s, with even some single digits at like SLK. Not bad for October. "Monday night will be very cold with clearing skies and mainly light winds creating a good radiational cooling night...min temperatures will be in the teens to low 20s with some single digits in the coldest spots of the dacks." Tasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Monday night may be coldest for those typical CAA areas especially north of CT. Tuesday night is a radiator special. Maybe a hair warmer than first thought yesterday but it be chilly Tuesday and even Wednesday. Then we torch late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 I see my 1st frozen precip in my p&c forecast. Will be nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2013 Author Share Posted October 27, 2013 Monday night may be coldest for those typical CAA areas especially north of CT. Tuesday night is a radiator special. Maybe a hair warmer than first thought yesterday but it be chilly Tuesday and even Wednesday. Then we torch late week. I'm not sure about Tuesday night anymore.... may bring in a fairly thick deck of mid/high level clouds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 BOX really seeing cold Tuesday They are? Monday night is a little chilly. But on Tuesday, my p/c is 46* and ZFP is mid-40's. Not really much different than today's 48. 44.9/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2013 Author Share Posted October 27, 2013 what the hell is with the snow in the point and click for the coastal plain. Someone had a little too much fun with the grids lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 what the hell is with the snow in the point and click for the coastal plain. Someone had a little too much fun with the grids lol. Meh--at this point of the year, it's nice to see it there even when it won't come to fruition. Keep the hope alive. 44.1/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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