Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I'm impressed with the cold obs locally today, Ginxy. Still upper 30s at the 1:50pm obs in the area... MPV stuck at 37F in the middle of the afternoon without precipitation falling is impressing me. There's a bunch of -15F daytime highs in progress east of the Green Mountain Spine in north/central VT. Unfortunately the low temps this morning were at normal or even a tick above (lol)... the last 6 hour max/min at MVL is 39/37 with almost no diurnal change, but these temps in mid afternoon is pretty cold for October 25th, especially considering there's no precip falling. 39/24 at MVL and 37/26 for MPV at 2pm. A pure snow column right there. mesomap.jpg Nice, yea very impressed on your web cam no melting snow on roof top, looks like skinners have had some fun turns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 if the euro is right i'd think just about everyone - maybe excluding BOS and ACK? - is done with their growing season by the middle of next week. mon/tue and maybe even wed nights would all be quite cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 if the euro is right i'd think just about everyone - maybe excluding BOS and ACK? - is done with their growing season by the middle of next week. mon/tue and maybe even wed nights would all be quite cold. Yeah that's a nice rad cooling setup for end of October. Widespread 20s probably. Think we have a decent warmup by the end of the week and that weekend before we cool down again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 if the euro is right i'd think just about everyone - maybe excluding BOS and ACK? - is done with their growing season by the middle of next week. mon/tue and maybe even wed nights would all be quite cold. Torch to start November and then big cooldown again? Interesting that the OP goes back to a -EPO after D8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I'm impressed with the cold obs locally today, Ginxy. Still upper 30s at the 1:50pm obs in the area... MPV stuck at 37F in the middle of the afternoon without precipitation falling is impressing me. There's a bunch of -15F daytime highs in progress east of the Green Mountain Spine in north/central VT. Unfortunately the low temps this morning were at normal or even a tick above (lol)... the last 6 hour max/min at MVL is 39/37 with almost no diurnal change, but these temps in mid afternoon is pretty cold for October 25th, especially considering there's no precip falling. 39/24 at MVL and 37/26 for MPV at 2pm. A pure snow column right there. mesomap.jpg Low and mid 40s even down here in SNE. My station over in Union cracked 40° around noon. Combined with this morning's low, I'm sure there's sap in the maples. I can just feel it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 Torch to start November and then big cooldown again? Interesting that the OP goes back to a -EPO after D8. Is a November torch a NORCH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Is a November torch a NORCH? Well we can all agree that November is not a winter month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 Well we can all agree that November is not a winter month. Well... at least currently participating board members can agree to that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Torch to start November and then big cooldown again? Interesting that the OP goes back to a -EPO after D8. yeah looks that way. torch on the op is pretty brief really...36 to 48 hours maybe of deep S flow then back to NW flow aloft over most Canada and down into GL/NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 yeah looks that way. torch on the op is pretty brief really...36 to 48 hours maybe of deep S flow then back to NW flow aloft over most Canada and down into GL/NE. I noticed last nights ensembles went fairly cold too after D8-9. So the OP run today may have the right idea in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Torch to start November and then big cooldown again? Interesting that the OP goes back to a -EPO after D8. Despite my own acknowledgement that the operational Euro beyond D6 ..7 is pretty useless ... I was mentioning the other day not to get too convinced of a major warm-up in the first week(s) of November, and still see things that way. I'm still seeing the same teleconnector reasoning that originates in the west Pac ...even has some Asian MT T super-imposing. But the MJO and -WPO are positive re-enforcers of one another, and that will send a fairly potent Rossby signal down stream. The -EPO and associated AB phase of the N Pacific is the preferred ending state. Reluctantly, I am forced to nod to the extended Euro here... Yeah ... the NAO is climbing and the AO (as of 3 days ago... CPC isn't updating for some reason) was forecast to climb to +2SD, but just looking at the freebies over at PSU for the D8-10 means of both camps doesn't suggest that much rise in the index will succeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I noticed last nights ensembles went fairly cold too after D8-9. So the OP run today may have the right idea in the LR. not convinced on that warm up either, muted possible as seems to be the case lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Well... at least currently participating board members can agree to that! pretty low blow from a friend, watch that warm up get muted to a 12 hour fropo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 GEFS actually have a rather nice -EPO vs Aleutian/Bering Sea ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Meanwhile chilly day today. Seasons performing as seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Meanwhile chilly day today. Seasons performing as seasons. For the first time this year, I've fired up the second stove. Nice to give the other side of the house a little warmth. Bedrooms, though....... . The Pit's a cold place. Not all that bad outside though when the wind slackens. 41.8/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Continued ridging into the Bering Sea on the euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 47.3 at home per wife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Continued ridging into the Bering Sea on the euro ensembles. Cold/cool here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Cold/cool here? Eh, tough to tell. Certainly could go either way but verbatim might be near to a hair below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Eh, tough to tell. Certainly could go either way but verbatim might be near to a hair below. Ridge does try to go pleward. Also PV over eastern canada will try to keep things cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Eh, tough to tell. Certainly could go either way but verbatim might be near to a hair below. Have to really see how strong the PNA/NAO signals are as we get closer. It looks like the PNA wants to tank quite a bit as we move towards and through the first week of November while the NAO also becomes positive. However, the PNA signal may end up being more of a factor on the pattern given the NAO, especially if it develops as strong as modeled so that could really work to keep things at least closer to normal, if not perhaps below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Have to really see how strong the PNA/NAO signals are as we get closer. It looks like the PNA wants to tank quite a bit as we move towards and through the first week of November while the NAO also becomes positive. However, the PNA signal may end up being more of a factor on the pattern given the NAO, especially if it develops as strong as modeled so that could really work to keep things at least closer to normal, if not perhaps below. PNA tries to go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 PNA tries to go negative. We'll see of it does. It seems like there is fairly good consensus that it will not only go negative but perhaps quite negative. Also, looking at the 8-10 day charts on EWALL, the Euro has the strongest anomalies setting up right in the GOA which is perfect to drive a trough further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Ridge does try to go pleward. Also PV over eastern canada will try to keep things cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 The PNA is fine even if it turns negative. That's a nice ridge through the Bering Sea with some NW flow even into the Great Lakes. That pattern would probably produce in December over this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 The PNA is fine even if it turns negative. That's a nice ridge through the Bering Sea with some NW flow even into the Great Lakes. That pattern would probably produce in December over this area. A nice ridge across the Aleutians is good, way better than the dreaded AK vortex back in 2011. If the AO can maintain a more neutral look for December we may end up with a gradient temperature anomaly in the area, similar to 2007. Do you this recent uptick in solar actvity could have any effect on the QBO and stratospheric temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 A nice ridge across the Aleutians is good, way better than the dreaded AK vortex back in 2011. If the AO can maintain a more neutral look for December we may end up with a gradient temperature anomaly in the area, similar to 2007. Do you this recent uptick in solar actvity could have any effect on the QBO and stratospheric temperatures? I'm not really well versed enough to answer with any confidence, but my gut tells me not much of an effect. Still a relatively weak max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 if the euro is right i'd think just about everyone - maybe excluding BOS and ACK? - is done with their growing season by the middle of next week. mon/tue and maybe even wed nights would all be quite cold. Torch to start November and then big cooldown again? Interesting that the OP goes back to a -EPO after D8. 2002 keeps on rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I'm not really well versed enough to answer with any confidence, but my gut tells me not much of an effect. Still a relatively weak max. Yeah i had similar thoughts, despite the +QBO the stratosphere is quite cold across the equator but if the uptick continues based on my research it may have a residual effect on the overall state of the AO/NAO anomaly. This +AO/NAO anomaly may help bottle up the cold across the north and increase the snow cover and only moving further south in small pockets if the -EPO can maintain its state. I think 2008-09 is a good analog, what do you think? 07-08 had a moderate La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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