toronto blizzard Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I do think we still have a mild risk mid month, but we'll see. HM in the Philly thread starting to bang on potential West-based -NAO for December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Nice southern jet showing up on the models as well in the Long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 37 imby this morning. Annuals hanging in here as well, but the soil is getting dusty. 39 here this morning, and some rain (or snow) would be nice. While technically the growing season continues here, I doubt much is growing with the relatively short days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 39 here this morning, and some rain (or snow) would be nice. While technically the growing season continues here, I doubt much is growing with the relatively short days. some stuff will just keep on chugging until they are really beaten down. just ask scooter what his neighbor's flower bed looked like in dec 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 some stuff will just keep on chugging until they are really beaten down. just ask scooter what his neighbor's flower bed looked like in dec 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Oh I'm not even looking at it from a Dec point of view..lol. My concern was/is lower heights developing near AK. For now, it was borderline if that would happen.....but at least the ridge is trying to fight back..possibly from the help of MJO activity. Yea a little too early for december... I'd say the warm signals outweight colder ones here, but the pacific is not an all out torch signal by any means at least... I'm not sure if it means anything for the winter yet, but i suppose its a better sign for new england if we start seeing the Aleutian high signal and it take on a more poleward look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 29F here this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 Nice look on the long range anyways. Some potential if the models work out. Gradient pattern look, but of course it's early to know where this sets up. Could definitely envision some type of wintry potential 11/5-11/10 based on Euro/GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Could definitely envision some type of wintry potential 11/5-11/10 based on Euro/GFS ensembles. Yeah that's a good change from two days ago. Pellets for Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 Yeah that's a good change from two days ago. Pellets for Tolland. Probably 33F and rain. I mean we're riding on the edge... definitely possible that the storm track is hundreds of miles too far northwest but we'll see. Looks like the cold relaxes and we go above normal for a few days next week (barring that storm sliding south) and then possibly a bit more chill beyond that with an active wx pattern. As the weenies say though... when in drought go drought. Maybe we won't see any precip at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Probably 33F and rain. I mean we're riding on the edge... definitely possible that the storm track is hundreds of miles too far northwest but we'll see. Looks like the cold relaxes and we go above normal for a few days next week (barring that storm sliding south) and then possibly a bit more chill beyond that with an active wx pattern. As the weenies say though... when in drought go drought. Maybe we won't see any precip at all! Damaging drought continues. At least it will turn active it appears. I do like seeing the Aleutian ridge......it's not a classic -EPO but it helps us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 How did the latest euro weeklies look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 How did the latest euro weeklies look? Near to just above week 3 and 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Shockingly, the Pit stayed relatively mild overnight with a sunrise low of 34.9. Blustery out there now. 40.2/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 How did the latest euro weeklies look? Near to just above week 3 and 4. For what it's worth, the weeklies also capture the Aleutian high signal weeks 2-4 in producing these temp anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 For what it's worth, the weeklies also capture the Aleutian high signal weeks 2-4 in producing these temp anomalies. Yeah. Hopefully it's a little more poleward, but I'll take that over a 2011 death star sitting in the Bering Sea any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Yeah. Hopefully it's a little more poleward, but I'll take that over a 2011 death star sitting in the Bering Sea any day. Yeah and again I'm not saying the aleutian high is bad...New England wants to see that and hopefully this is a sign of things to come with HM's poleward aleutian high/+QBO/cooler enso theory. I'm just questioning its worth as far as the ~nov 5-20th period is concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 What has the highest correlation to NEUS temps.... -EPO or +PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 What has the highest correlation to NEUS temps.... -EPO or +PNA? I would have to imagine -EPO. With a PNA, even positive, you can get a cutter and torch the eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Yeah and again I'm not saying the aleutian high is bad...New England wants to see that and hopefully this is a sign of things to come with HM's poleward aleutian high/+QBO/cooler enso theory. I'm just questioning its worth as far as the ~nov 5-20th period is concerned You mean it's worth for a period like Dec-Feb? Eh, probably not that much. IMHO I've seen some winter patterns try to set in November so I certainly think it's not a bad thing to see models hold off on any Bering Sea type low. I will say that in general a colder November usually is a good signal for that period, so we certainly don't want it to torch. With ENSO being weak, we will likely be at the mercy of things like MJO forcing and the ongoings of the stratosphere, so the forecasts are certainly more prone to swings. But call me happy if on the 11/30, we continue to see ridging in that area on the ensembles. Call be delighted if it's a true -EPO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 You mean it's worth for a period like Dec-Feb? Eh, probably not that much. IMHO I've seen some winter patterns try to set in November so I certainly think it's not a bad thing to see models hold off on any Bering Sea type low. I will say that in general a colder November usually is a good signal for that period, so we certainly don't want it to torch. With ENSO being weak, we will likely be at the mercy of things like MJO forcing and the ongoings of the stratosphere, so the forecasts are certainly more prone to swings. But call me happy if on the 11/30, we continue to see ridging in that area on the ensembles. Call be delighted if it's a true -EPO... To clarify, I meant its worth as far as whether it means a colder pattern in the mid-novy period i outlined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 To clarify, I meant its worth as far as whether it means a colder pattern in the mid-novy period i outlined. Oh ok. Well yeah if the front is 200 miles north it won't mean much here. Probably still means warmth south of NYC too. I honestly don't care too much as far as temps go, I care more about the H5 evolution and I would much rather see a development in heights rising there vs heights lowering. I guess that's what I'm referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Posted here many times overwhelming -EPO cold compared to PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Posted here many times overwhelming -EPO cold compared to PNA PNA more precip I would imagine, though I admit this is not my strong suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 PNA more precip I would imagine, though I admit this is not my strong suit. yes for ENE, EPO has a Dec database error so only Jan- March can be used Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 EP is the new EPO index. +EP is the same as a -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I was just looking through some climo for the deep south and there's some impressive cold down there for this time of year.... the frost and freeze climo down there is as much as a month early in some spots. I saw the Birmingham, AL office says they will issue Frost/Freeze products until November 28th but some areas have already had a frost/freeze on the 21st apparently. Looks like they just missed earliest frost/freeze records down there in Alabama, but only by like 4-7 days if they freeze tonight. The departures down there must be pretty large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 EP is the new EPO index. +EP is the same as a -EPO EPCOR.gif PNACOR.gif march is no longer a winter month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 march is no longer a winter month? I'm impressed with the cold obs locally today, Ginxy. Still upper 30s at the 1:50pm obs in the area... MPV stuck at 37F in the middle of the afternoon without precipitation falling is impressing me. There's a bunch of -15F daytime highs in progress east of the Green Mountain Spine in north/central VT. Unfortunately the low temps this morning were at normal or even a tick above (lol)... the last 6 hour max/min at MVL is 39/37 with almost no diurnal change, but these temps in mid afternoon is pretty cold for October 25th, especially considering there's no precip falling. 39/24 at MVL and 37/26 for MPV at 2pm. A pure snow column right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Man times are tough right now. There isn't even anything good to look at on the GFS. Guess I'll role over and fall back asleep for another 2 weeks. See what things look like then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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