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Second Half of October Wx Discussion?


CT Rain

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Snow squalls were observed today in the poconos and Hudson valley (orange county) which is not unheard of but impressive. Also, with the configuration of the trough longitude is a factor and people SW of new England might see daytime temps similar to NNE giving them much more anomalously cold temperatures.

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Snow squalls were observed today in the poconos and Hudson valley (orange county) which is not unheard of but impressive. Also, with the configuration of the trough longitude is a factor and people SW of new England might see daytime temps similar to NNE giving them much more anomalously cold temperatures.

Well it's certainly not unheard of but I was impressed to see flakes in places like Lancaster PA
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Best anomalies south.AWT.

Yeah you could see it coming a mile away when H85 freezing line was progged so far south but it was nothing unheard of up here.

Ginxy...the upslope threat was always there and with lake moisture, there was high confidence of the season's first snow on Mansfield. No one called it today though, that was a sweet fluke. I don't think anyone was doubting snow in the upslope areas, though. Our discussion was always regarding the temps.

It is awesome to get a taste of winter, but it's still pretty run of the mill cold shot in NE. We aren't threatening records (or anywhere close to even discussing records), but they are in the south and TN Valley where these temps are far more anomalous.

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No. To put it in perspective, at BDL this month, there have already been 8 days of 6+ above normal of which half of those were double digits above normal. Mid-50s by day and mid-30s by night might be impressive in late October at PHL or DCA, but not BDL.

The warmth this month was impressive. Thank god we moved on from that...that's the take home point, that it's not +5 to +15 everyday now. It's still a pretty big pattern change even if it's not overly impressive this time of year.

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Lol, too bad you missed the first snow, bad juju, but enjoy the week long squalls and threats. Just busting you. It's an anamolous period climo wise, not unusual but still anamolous.

Yeah it's a huge pattern change, that's for sure. No denying that switch from torch to below even if it's not record breaking.

Just looked at that shot last year when it snowed on Oct 12th up here... from the 7th-12th of 2012 BDL put up -8, -8, -2, 2, -5, -8, -12. BDL's 57/33 and 55/27 type days last October was similar to today but 2 weeks earlier.

Cheers to the first real trough of the cold season this year dude!

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CON 27, MMK 29, OWD 26...finally some wider spread 20s out there this AM. It seems to have taken forever to get them this year.

 

My forecast FTL. I really didn't think the winds would completely lay down like they did. We had upper 20s just a couple miles from the coast near GYX. Yet we're still rocking frost/freeze headlines. :axe:

 

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Nice look on the long range anyways. Some potential if the models work out. Gradient pattern look, but of course it's early to know where this sets up.

 

A little too early (wavelengths wise) to get excited (for cold) about an aleutian ridge wouldnt you think? Anyhow, it is fairly poleward though and i can understand the optimism if this would hold into Dec... for now it could help at least fight off an all out torch from the +NAO with cold air in Canada? 

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A little too early (wavelengths wise) to get excited (for cold) about an aleutian ridge wouldnt you think? Anyhow, it is fairly poleward though and i can understand the optimism if this would hold into Dec... for now it could help at least fight off an all out torch from the +NAO with cold air in Canada? 

 

Oh I'm not even looking at it from a Dec point of view..lol. My concern was/is lower heights developing near AK. For now, it was borderline if that would happen.....but at least the ridge is trying to fight back..possibly from the help of MJO activity.

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