powderfreak Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Still seeing enhancement along the Greens and some of the WRF runs keep it going into the overnight. From a co-worker at Stowe...1550ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Yeesh, the GFS really pulls the warmth back. That right there is a tropical connection if I've ever seen one. Quite a gradient there, too. Blustery, torrential rain-y day on the GFS 180h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 Yeesh, the GFS really pulls the warmth back. That right there is a tropical connection if I've ever seen one. Quite a gradient there, too. Blustery, torrential rain-y day on the GFS 180h. Verbatim that's not even that warm... you'd probably lock in some cool northerly drain with the warm front struggling north through SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Verbatim that's not even that warm... you'd probably lock in some cool northerly drain with the warm front struggling north through SNE. In December that's a 6" snow thump followed by drizzle as the triple point slips S and the thing clears under the occlusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Verbatim that's not even that warm... you'd probably lock in some cool northerly drain with the warm front struggling north through SNE. Yeah with that pressure pattern, that looks like a putrid 45-50F type rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 In December that's a 6" snow thump followed by drizzle as the triple point slips S and the thing clears under the occlusion Yeah with that pressure pattern, that looks like a putrid 45-50F type rainstorm. Oh, the pain. Not a fun storm any time of year. Better than nothing, I suppose, given we need the rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Could be fun for the high mountains of NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 20F DPs on modestly gusty winds at 50F ... Feels like November out there. MJO appears to be strengthening in the GFS ensembles -- the mean taking into solid moderate wave strength, in Phase 8/1 Meanwhile, we are recurving two significant doses of west Pac LH, and I was looping the Pac oper. GFS and noting the deposition of this latency into the NE Pac ridging, and wondering if that is all being handled correctly... Then the operational Euro, you can tell it's trying to lock more cold into the Canadian shield compared to the last couple of cycle. I really think the warm up in the extended is going to come in more muted. Could be wrong, we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Verbatim that's not even that warm... you'd probably lock in some cool northerly drain with the warm front struggling north through SNE. Warmer than now though, right? The 0C line barely reaches into any parts of the lower 48, though I'm sure mountains and such would be that cold. Anyway, any ideas about what is causing the significant difference between the GFS and the GGEM/Euro for the HP cold outbreak? Does it have to do with the strength of the HP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Warmer than now though, right? The 0C line barely reaches into any parts of the lower 48, though I'm sure mountains and such would be that cold. Anyway, any ideas about what is causing the significant difference between the GFS and the GGEM/Euro for the HP cold outbreak? Does it have to do with the strength of the HP? Not necessarily...it's mostly U40s and L50s today. That prog is probably a nasty, wet U30s-M40s over the interior north of the WF. Of course that's the GFS in lalaland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 I'll take the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Warmer than now though, right? The 0C line barely reaches into any parts of the lower 48, though I'm sure mountains and such would be that cold. Anyway, any ideas about what is causing the significant difference between the GFS and the GGEM/Euro for the HP cold outbreak? Does it have to do with the strength of the HP? When dealing with warm fronts this time of year sometimes you have to pay extra attention. In that setup which is modeled, there is probably a good chance the sfc warm front would get hungup somewhere over the region as Ryan pointed out. However, while 850 temps may warm, that may not necessarily translate to warmer sfc. The 850 warm front may blow through but the sfc warm front may not...so the low-levels warm but the sfc does not follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Some snow pics for folks... I'm so jealous of my friends up there right now, lol. I'll be back tomorrow, hopefully to enjoy some more snow from the clipper up there. RT 108 on the Stowe/Cambridge line in Smugglers Notch... Base of Stowe Mountain Resort...1500ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Some snow pics for folks... I'm so jealous of my friends up there right now, lol. I'll be back tomorrow, hopefully to enjoy some more snow from the clipper up there. RT 108 on the Stowe/Cambridge line in Smugglers Notch... Base of Stowe Mountain Resort...1500ft Some snow pics for folks... I'm so jealous of my friends up there right now, lol. I'll be back tomorrow, hopefully to enjoy some more snow from the clipper up there. RT 108 on the Stowe/Cambridge line in Smugglers Notch... Base of Stowe Mountain Resort...1500ft Waiting on a picnic table obs. or pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Waiting on a picnic table obs. or pic I'll be up there this weekend 3" of snow depth at the 4:30pm Mansfield Co-Op report but some heavy squalls have moved through since then. Maybe 4-6" by morning above 3,000ft if this keeps up? I just left NYC to head back north...my phone has been lighting up all day with photos from friends and co-workers... interesting that the trees are still primarily green and full in Central Park, while its now full-on winter back at the office. Sweet evening update in the BTV AFD from an AMWX member... .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 616 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPDATE THIS EVENING TO INCREASE POPS/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST MINOR UPSLOPE EVENT OF THE SEASON CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS. MOISTURE PLUME EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z SHOULD ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND FROUDE NUMBERS GREATER THAN ONE SUGGESTING THAT MOST PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS EVENING HAS OCCURRED FROM THE SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST...AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY LOCAL OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS 1.5 DEGREE KCXX RADAR SCAN. ACCUMULATIONS SO FAR HAVE BEEN FROM NOTHING IN THE VALLEYS TO AROUND A HALF INCH AT 1500 FEET TO 2.5 INCHES ON MOUNT MANSFIELD AT JUST UNDER 4000 FEET. BY 03Z...WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND FROUDE NUMBERS LOWER...SUGGESTING THAT FLOW BECOMES MORE BLOCKED ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO BACK UP ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING BY THAT TIME...SO RAIN/SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF. MOUNT MANSFIELD REGIONAL MESONET OBS SHOW FREEZING LEVEL IS AROUND 2500 FEET BUT IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FEET BY MIDNIGHT. THUS WHILE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKING AT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM A COATING- HALF INCH OF SNOW ABOVE 1000 FEET...AROUND AN INCH AT 1500-2000 FEET...TO SEVERAL INCHES ON TOP OF MOUNT MANSFIELD...MAINLY ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. ROAD SURFACES SHOULD REMAIN WET...HOWEVER AS SUN SETS AND TEMPERATURES DROP...PATCHY BLACK ICE MAY FORM IN A FEW LOCATIONS...SO DRIVE CAUTIOUSLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING A MAINLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM 25 TO 35 DEGREES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 I'll be up there this weekend 3" on the ground at the 4:30pm Mansfield Co-Op report but some heavy squalls have moved through since then. Maybe 4-6" by morning above 3,000ft if this keeps up? I just left NYC to head back north...my phone has been lighting up all day with photos from friends and co-workers... interesting that the trees are still primarily green and full in Central Park, while its now full-on winter back at the office. still not impressed? -6 BVT today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 I think I see a pony-o in the woods Anyway, glad to see the occasional minor threats showing up more regularly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 still not impressed? -6 BVT today Impressed with the magnitude of cold... Honestly should we be impressed about -6F? Thurs/Fri was supposed to be the peak of the cold and I'm seeing -6 BTV & ORH, -4 BDL and -1 at BOS today. It seems pretty run of the mill cold shot for this time of year, unless I'm missing something, but any below normal departures are a huge step, lol. But its still awesome and I've been stoked all day long just because of reports of snow. And as awesome as the first snow of the season is on the mountains, its probably right on schedule in the last third of October from 1,500ft and above. I am impressed with how today's event panned out though... didn't see that coming but I don't think anyone really forecast accumulating snow today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Looks like some stray echos on radar but temps seem a little high for flurries: mid-upper 40s out that way. If someone saw them, more power to them. Flurries here in the Hudson Valley as well. Enough to make the ground wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Impressed with the magnitude of cold... Honestly should we be impressed about -6F? No. To put it in perspective, at BDL this month, there have already been 8 days of 6+ above normal of which half of those were double digits above normal. Mid-50s by day and mid-30s by night might be impressive in late October at PHL or DCA, but not BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Impressed with the magnitude of cold... Honestly should we be impressed about -6F? Thurs/Fri was supposed to be the peak of the cold and I'm seeing -6 BTV & ORH, -4 BDL and -1 at BOS today. It seems pretty run of the mill cold shot for this time of year, unless I'm missing something, but any below normal departures are a huge step, lol. But its still awesome and I've been stoked all day long just because of reports of snow. And as awesome as the first snow of the season is on the mountains, its probably right on schedule in the last third of October from 1,500ft and above. I am impressed with how today's event panned out though... didn't see that coming but I don't think anyone really forecast accumulating snow today. snow is impressive at Mansfield ASOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Upslope spots definitely look favorable for snow behind the system regardless. The system itself though won't produce much snow anywhere though if it ends up as a weaker anafrontal wave.yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Higher elevations foothills and mountains look to be into snow one way or the other with some up sloping as wellgood call Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Jay peak (N greens) will be winners either way. We can all act like were not jealous of two feet at the picnic tables Good call Picks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 LOL late October snow above 3k. Not exactly Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Impressed with the magnitude of cold... Honestly should we be impressed about -6F? Thurs/Fri was supposed to be the peak of the cold and I'm seeing -6 BTV & ORH, -4 BDL and -1 at BOS today. It seems pretty run of the mill cold shot for this time of year, unless I'm missing something, but any below normal departures are a huge step, lol. But its still awesome and I've been stoked all day long just because of reports of snow. And as awesome as the first snow of the season is on the mountains, its probably right on schedule in the last third of October from 1,500ft and above. I am impressed with how today's event panned out though... didn't see that coming but I don't think anyone really forecast accumulating snow today. Best anomalies south.AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 Best anomalies south.AWT. Well forecast, not terribly impressive, warm up to follow. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 LOL late October snow above 3k. Not exactly Impressive. it squalled at low levels today, impressive for 10/24 especially after the warmth that was everywhere, Ryan's warmup is still below normal too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 it squalled at low levels today, impressive for 10/24 especially after the warmth that was everywhere, Ryan's warmup is still below normal too. Even at 1500' it's not impressive to have a coating on 10/24. It's a cold shot, but nothing to write home about here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 The 44 at Logan 5 weeks ago was waaaay more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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