Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 We may not even be below normal today here at BTV. Normals are 54/37 and so far today we're 53/38, so at 0.0 right now. 49/33 here -9 on the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 We may not even be below normal today here at BTV. Normals are 54/37 and so far today we're 53/38, so at 0.0 right now. lol I know. I was surprised to see it got as warm as it did today up at home. So much for highs in the 40s today...50F at MVL and 53F at BTV? Maybe tomorrow will be below normal? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 lol I know. I was surprised to see it got as warm as it did today up at home. So much for highs in the 40s today...50F at MVL and 53F at BTV? Maybe tomorrow will be below normal? haha Haha the magic of a little sun! And the overzealousness of the models on an early-season cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Haha the magic of a little sun! And the overzealousness of the models on an early-season cold shot. Yeah, that was my feeling going in at least up here. I told Ginxy the greatest departures would be south and likely west too. There's no 850 thermal gradient, so the anomalies from normal will be greater the further south this airmass gets. Sub-zero H85 at like ATL is a heck of a lot colder than -6C up here relative to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Looks like the first sub-50F high at ORH today since May 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Looks like the first sub-50F high at ORH today since May 25th We're crossing the threshold into a snow profile, whether there is actual snow falling from the sky. Dps are regionally below 30F, and temps struggle to 52 in the lower els, and we are plunging headlong into 48 hours of sub 540dm thickness ... down even to 528! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 47.1F for my high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Actually it's interesting that the 50mb temps show a nice warm up as well. Sort of contradicts the forecasts since I highly doubt it will reverse that quick, but that's not to say it eventually cools. Like Will said, the temp forecasts for the strat aren't always the best in the longer range so something to watch. temp50anim.gif yeah that's what i was mentioning earlier. it's hard to imagine such a dramatic shift to get us to where the ec wants it by day 10. not impossible obviously but just extrapolating the 30-day loop doesn't really suggest it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Haha the magic of a little sun! And the overzealousness of the models on an early-season cold shot. DP is 28, you might beat 38 by midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 yeah that's what i was mentioning earlier. it's hard to imagine such a dramatic shift to get us to where the ec wants it by day 10. not impossible obviously but just extrapolating the 30-day loop doesn't really suggest it happens. http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php?im=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 next tue night would be really chilly in the typical rad spots per the euro. that HP noses across from the plains with a reinforcing shot of chilly air then settles in right overhead. even though the 850s aren't very cold...you'd probably have widespread 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 DP is 28, you might beat 38 by midnight It's possible if the clouds dissipate quickly and we can decouple! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Looks like the first sub-50F high at ORH today since May 25th Nice. Congrats... Highs up here by elevation so far... 4000ft...35F 1600ft...45F 730ft...50F 300ft...53F I personally was surprised the summit got as warm as it did, but makes sense if we hit 50F in town as there's that 15F difference with dry adiabatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 yeah that's what i was mentioning earlier. it's hard to imagine such a dramatic shift to get us to where the ec wants it by day 10. not impossible obviously but just extrapolating the 30-day loop doesn't really suggest it happens. Oh ok..yeah I noticed that too. EC is insistent so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 next tue night would be really chilly in the typical rad spots per the euro. that HP noses across from the plains with a reinforcing shot of chilly air then settles in right overhead. even though the 850s aren't very cold...you'd probably have widespread 20s. Ensembles have it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 We're crossing the threshold into a snow profile, whether there is actual snow falling from the sky. Dps are regionally below 30F, and temps struggle to 52 in the lower els, and we are plunging headlong into 48 hours of sub 540dm thickness ... down even to 528! Yeah it's getting closer....wet bulb temps at the base of the ski area have been 35-38F today at 1600ft. Wet bulb zero line is around 3000ft and I'd assume similar in SNE with similar H85 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Well we got our first legit snow obs from non-picnic table/non-MWN source in the northeast today...ELZ reporting snow...should be good LES in Tug Hill over the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Well we got our first legit snow obs from non-picnic table/non-MWN source in the northeast today...ELZ reporting snow...should be good LES in Tug Hill over the next couple days. Nice! At 37/34 no less. That's not even close to freezing or wet bulb freezing. It's snowing there but 47F in ELM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Definitely a snow sky today. Raw down in srn RI and out over MVY right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 lol...but classic fall shower of rain then dynamically going to -SN 1.5sm at the heaviest, then back to rain as it lightens up. KELZ 232056Z AUTO 31007KT 10SM FEW029 BKN043 OVC100 03/01 A2971 RMK AO2 RAB02E14B32E43SNB14E32 SLP077 P0000 60000 T00330011 51011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Definitely a snow sky today. Raw down in srn RI and out over MVY right now. I was talking to my Met from about that too - funny. Yeah, it looked like those hours before a snow event, when the sky undulates with virga plumes. Just 15 to 20F too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I was noticing in the operational Euro that the SW flow ahead of that S/W ... D3'ish, never succeeds in getting the 0C, 850mb isotherm back through before it settles back SE after passage. Weak SW flow event? ....who's with me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 DP is 28, you might beat 38 by midnight BTV AFD this afternoon...surprisingly it doesn't look like it was Nittany that wrote it, but when I read it that's who I thought it was.&& Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/... as of 350 PM EDT Wednesday...fairly quiet afternoon across the region. The nearly 1 month long stretch of warmer than normal weather is over with and the best that Burlington can do for today is Eek out a "normal" day. We'll have to see if it ends up lower than 38f by midnight. <snip> Tomorrow... The approaching shortwave will also generate some added weak instability, and when combined with orographic effects, we should end up seeing a few convective showers across the higher terrain. With the cold temperatures, this means the precipitation should fall in the form of snow mainly above 1500 feet or so. Really not looking for anything much -- kept probability of precipitation in the 20-30% range for the mountain areas. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts should be very light -- perhaps a couple of hundredths melted, which leads to at best 1/2 inch of snow at the summits (and even less at lower elevations). Really nothing to get excited about, we are past due for this type of weather. at that last line. BTV with lots of meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 So long as we are doing the vicarious thing ... A friend in CNY sent this... she lives around a 1,000 feet up, E of the Finger f Likes. She's reporting "snow balls" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 BTV AFD this afternoon...surprisingly it doesn't look like it was Nittany that wrote it, but when I read it that's who I thought it was. && Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/... as of 350 PM EDT Wednesday...fairly quiet afternoon across the region. The nearly 1 month long stretch of warmer than normal weather is over with and the best that Burlington can do for today is Eek out a "normal" day. We'll have to see if it ends up lower than 38f by midnight. <snip> Tomorrow... The approaching shortwave will also generate some added weak instability, and when combined with orographic effects, we should end up seeing a few convective showers across the higher terrain. With the cold temperatures, this means the precipitation should fall in the form of snow mainly above 1500 feet or so. Really not looking for anything much -- kept probability of precipitation in the 20-30% range for the mountain areas. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts should be very light -- perhaps a couple of hundredths melted, which leads to at best 1/2 inch of snow at the summits (and even less at lower elevations). Really nothing to get excited about, we are past due for this type of weather. at that last line. BTV with lots of meh. LOL nah not me today. I don't think i would even admit that we're overdue for this... haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I was noticing in the operational Euro that the SW flow ahead of that S/W ... D3'ish, never succeeds in getting the 0C, 850mb isotherm back through before it settles back SE after passage. Weak SW flow event? ....who's with me! I've been thinking the same thing, haha. I did see a sounding yesterday that had a warm above 0C layer at like H8 (in true SWFE fashion, pesky elevated warm layers) advect in but it looked narrow so maybe it would wash out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 45.1F/35 at the town soccer field attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 LOL nah not me today. I don't think i would even admit that we're overdue for this... haha Why don't you have a met tag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 45.1F/35 at the town soccer field attm Yeah--40's everywhere today (er, actually, I got to 50.1). Even Long Island is sitting there in the mid-40's/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 GEM had a NNE teaser late in the run @ 12z. That thing isn't far from snow at elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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