ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 FWIW the Euro ensembles 50mb T are cold through the 11-15 day over central and eastern Siberia. There is some mild warming hinted near Greenland towards the end. Yeah that is not what we want to see happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Some real winners in the first set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Some real winners in the first set. Yeah pretty ugly...but just to show that there's no reason to string up the noose yet...here was last year through the first 10 days of November We managed to warm up a lot in the 2nd half of the month to finish near neutral temps in centra/east Siberia...maybe slightly below average...and of course, we still had a -AO winter. 2010 was also a bit of an ugly pattern but that had an obscenely -AO. So there's still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Some real winners in the first set. Yeah there are some great skunkers in there. Lovely...a lot are late starting winters or winters that didn't come at all, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Some real winners in the first set. it's funny to look at the analog years because you see a mix in there. with the strat...i see the ec forecasts with the focus shifting toward siberia in the coming 10 days but if you loop some of the 50, 30 and 10 hpa progs in the cpc site for the last 30 days up through 10/20, you don't get the impression that such a flip is coming...it actually looks more like Will's second image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 For what it is worth ... The monitoring is actually in early detection for a warm node... It may actually be a compensating brief period before a more important cold node emerges out there in time ... these things oft' do come in coupled events... Be that as it may, right now there is a warming underway despite where you folks are digging up your products. The warming presented below is very elevated, and is taking place over-top your 30 to 50mb interval(s) -- "might" be a sign of things to come. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I remember the 1/28/94 storm...it was so cold the morning before that event it was hard to imagine rain, but they said it would change to rain after starting briefly as snow and then flipping to IP/ZR. The morning of the 28th was very icy I recall but then the CAD broke quickly, it went from near freezing to like 50F very fast. I think the actual storm cut through BUF or something. It was way west. 9 degrees and raining in Ashaway RI. I have it in my weather diary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 This is interesting ... the 00z Euro more than less kept up with the "symbolic prelude" to icing pattern, and now. ... I was looking at the 12z GFS, 500mb evolution and seeing the same split flow entering the Rockies, with that quasi-closed low in the SW throw out a confluence where it rejoins the northern branch near the GL and thinking, "gee -- there should be dome of high pressue with overrunniing... well lookie here! ...For the record, I loathe ice storms... but I still cannot help but be fascinated with their meteorology. Here, we have climo against us for one, but we lack a snow cover to drain from. Getting this pattern on Halloween is pretty crazy, but look at this below -- if that were mid Novie onwards, that would be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 it's funny to look at the analog years because you see a mix in there. with the strat...i see the ec forecasts with the focus shifting toward siberia in the coming 10 days but if you loop some of the 50, 30 and 10 hpa progs in the cpc site for the last 30 days up through 10/20, you don't get the impression that such a flip is coming...it actually looks more like Will's second image. Yeah so far its been warm in the stratosphere over Siberia...we'll hope the cooling is only marginal in the coming 2 weeks and that we never establish a deep cold anomaly there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I remember the 1/28/94 storm...it was so cold the morning before that event it was hard to imagine rain, but they said it would change to rain after starting briefly as snow and then flipping to IP/ZR. The morning of the 28th was very icy I recall but then the CAD broke quickly, it went from near freezing to like 50F very fast. I think the actual storm cut through BUF or something. It was way west. It was -21 on the morning of 1/27 at my (then) Gardiner home, and on roaring south winds climbed to 46 on the 28th. That day, as precip went over to rain (exactly as forecast), I was on the roof trying to remove 25" of white sponge before bad things happened. The rain made everything super slippery, and I took a flip, fortunately at the ridgeline, and put my hand thru one of the plastic ridge vents. Temporary repairs (pieces of waste sheetrock in a plastic garbage bag) stopped the leakage, but final repairs cost $7,000. (It's a long story.) That event is probably #2 on magnitude of temp rise in a relatively short time, behind March 19-20, 1976 in Ft. Kent, when a morning low of -25 climbed to 50 less than 36 hr later, under mostly clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 It seems like variability though keeps the vortex moving around? Yes it does check here http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php?im=3 eventually Jerry we want the composite anamoly to look like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 what does this mean? Seems to go against what people are saying on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Great discussion, folks. Keep it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 it's funny to look at the analog years because you see a mix in there. with the strat...i see the ec forecasts with the focus shifting toward siberia in the coming 10 days but if you loop some of the 50, 30 and 10 hpa progs in the cpc site for the last 30 days up through 10/20, you don't get the impression that such a flip is coming...it actually looks more like Will's second image. Sept was a mirror image pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 what does this mean? Seems to go against what people are saying on here It means it warmed in the stratosphre from September to present day...it is forecasted to cool down quite a lot between now and early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 If we saw that bump in temps at 30 and 50mb I would be much more excited. We started seeing that in Jan last year IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Scooter HP fetish on the euro next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Actually it's interesting that the 50mb temps show a nice warm up as well. Sort of contradicts the forecasts since I highly doubt it will reverse that quick, but that's not to say it eventually cools. Like Will said, the temp forecasts for the strat aren't always the best in the longer range so something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Actually it's interesting that the 50mb temps show a nice warm up as well. Sort of contradicts the forecasts since I highly doubt it will reverse that quick, but that's not to say it eventually cools. Like Will said, the temp forecasts for the strat aren't always the best in the longer range so something to watch. temp50anim.gif Is started a thread that offers some hypothesis as to why that may be - doesn't have to be cause, per se, but I like the fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Is started a thread that offers some hypothesis as to why that may be - doesn't have to be cause, per se, but I like the fit. Oh sorry, I didn't even see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Scooter HP fetish on the euro next week. If it were about 2-3 weeks later, we'd probably see a lot more resistance to allowing that system to cut into the lakes on the Euro...we'd have ourselves an early season overrunning event...ala Nov 14, 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 If it were about 2-3 weeks later, we'd probably see a lot more resistance to allowing that system to cut into the lakes on the Euro...we'd have ourselves an early season overrunning event...ala Nov 14, 1997. I remember that event quite well. Lots of IP even on south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I remember that event quite well. Lots of IP even on south shore. Yeah we had snow going tover to a lot of IP and then back to snow in that one. I think we ended up with around 5" of sleet/snow combo. It was a very cold storm. High at ORH that day was 28F...2nd earliest sub-30F high on record at ORH behind the Veterans Day 1987 storm. Pretty cold stuff for the 14th of November. If memory serves correct, even BOS had pretty good snow/sleet accumulation in that with like 3 or 4 inches. The Euro depiction is really impressive for the central U.S. on that high pressure. Could be some very cold stuff for late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 If it were about 2-3 weeks later, we'd probably see a lot more resistance to allowing that system to cut into the lakes on the Euro...we'd have ourselves an early season overrunning event...ala Nov 14, 1997. That event on Nov. 14, 1997 gave Toronto 8-9" of snow, one of its biggest snowfalls for that early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Yeah we had snow going tover to a lot of IP and then back to snow in that one. I think we ended up with around 5" of sleet/snow combo. It was a very cold storm. High at ORH that day was 28F...2nd earliest sub-30F high on record at ORH behind the Veterans Day 1987 storm. Pretty cold stuff for the 14th of November. If memory serves correct, even BOS had pretty good snow/sleet accumulation in that with like 3 or 4 inches. The Euro depiction is really impressive for the central U.S. on that high pressure. Could be some very cold stuff for late October. I just love that HP branching over. It obviously means nothing now, but just nice to see anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 We may not even be below normal today here at BTV. Normals are 54/37 and so far today we're 53/38, so at 0.0 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Warmups getting smacked around I the guidance. It's coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 It's been a long time since I've seen such a relaxed flow progged accross the Pac into the central US. Prelude to a big block somewhere along that flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Lots of forecasts mentioning rain and even drizzle this morning for the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Lots of forecasts mentioning rain and even drizzle this morning for the game. Looks to be a cool night in bean town for the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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