Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

[TalcottWx]

Even more so for Medford...lol

LOL what is a quarter of the campus in powderhouse square?

[MainePhotog]

Yes their was...

 

image.png

 

Quite a potent little line that came through last evening. Here at home we saw several flashes of lightning/thunder. We also had moderate winds and rain. Lasted about 15 minutes. Current temp 34.3°F.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

29F  first time below 30 this year.  Just a touch of visible frost. 

 

Pepper plants in the garden look like they survived so far.

[CapturedNature]

29F  first time below 30 this year.  Just a touch of visible frost. 

 

Pepper plants in the garden look like they survived so far.

 

31° for me and the first solidly below 32 morning.  We had lots of frost here, especially down the hill where it's usually 2-3° colder.  Valley fog too but I think that's what contributed to the frost.

[KartAnimal29]

funny you said that. i was outside at around 7:15 last night and thought i saw a flash in the very distant sky. wondered what it was

 

 

You might of saw a small piece of the GOCE  Satelite that's beginning it fall back to Earth

[CoastalWx]

The euro ensembles are trying to build slight ridging near the Aleutians near the end of it's run so not horrible. Still monster +NAO and +AO.

 

This is sort of out of my comfort zone, but there is some mtn torque going on in eastern Asia in response to some convection and assoc blowoff. At the very least, it will help fight off any tendency for lower heights near AK.  Also, we still will have those TCs in the WPAC that will try to dump another shot of colder air perhaps towards next week over the nrn tier.

[Ginx snewx]

The euro ensembles are trying to build slight ridging near the Aleutians near the end of it's run so not horrible. Still monster +NAO and +AO.

 

This is sort of out of my comfort zone, but there is some mtn torque going on in eastern Asia in response to some convection and assoc blowoff. At the very least, it will help fight off any tendency for lower heights near AK.  Also, we still will have those TCs in the WPAC that will try to dump another shot of colder air perhaps towards next week over the nrn tier.

Will be interesting to see how modeling develops, the cold is close by on the ENS through its run with from Toronto Blizzard to NNE 850s staying below 0

[toronto blizzard]

So any signs if torching in the long range?

[ORH_wxman]

The euro ensembles are trying to build slight ridging near the Aleutians near the end of it's run so not horrible. Still monster +NAO and +AO.

 

This is sort of out of my comfort zone, but there is some mtn torque going on in eastern Asia in response to some convection and assoc blowoff. At the very least, it will help fight off any tendency for lower heights near AK.  Also, we still will have those TCs in the WPAC that will try to dump another shot of colder air perhaps towards next week over the nrn tier.

 

 

My guess is the first week of November is close to normal temps. Though I'm still thinking we may torch after that...but so much will depend on the MJO and any recurves. With ENSO not being a big player at the moment, the pattern is kind of at the mercy of some shorter term factors.

[OceanStWx]

We are probably over-due for a region-wide ice storm. December 2008 was huge for the hilly interior areas (mostly in MA and far SW NH) and then the Merrimack Valley region of S NH and extreme N MA...but outside of that, it was not a huge event.

 

It feels like the last major icestorm for the SNE region was 2/28/95...maybe you could throw in Jan 1999 but it warmed up pretty quickly in that one. Interior has had many a moderate ice event in recent years aside from 12/08, but the CP "feels" overdue. But I'm not exactly certain on the return period there...I know 1991 had a big one too IIRC and of course some semi-moderate icing on the CP in 1994.

 

There have been some very localized icing events that hit part of the CP in more recent years (Merrimack got one in January 2007), but usually it was just a small transition zone type event. Maybe I'm missing a big one somewhere.

 

I mean CT needs to find another way to cripple the state's power grid.

 

I need to go back and browse the older storm data publications to find out what a truer sense of return period is.

[tamarack]

At least the limbs fall straight down. I wonder what the liquid equiv was in 2008. There was prob 2" or so

 

I measured 2.33" LE in the Jan 1998 ice storm, 9 miles south of AUG.  There was very minimal IP late in the event, plus a dusting of SN right at the end, and with the temp remaining AOB 30 nearly the whole time, most precip accreted.  We had 1.5" accretion at my place, but I saw 2.5"+ on a hilltop-location State woodlot NW of LEW, and that lot suffered about 60% crown loss in a Northern hardwood/oak forest.  (Ironically, the 80-acre woodlot on which I now live suffered less damage - in total - than did the 0.8-acre houselot in Gardiner.  The foothills got mainly IP.)

[TheCloser24]

January 2009 had a significant ice event in interior CT.  There was 1/4 in to 3/4 in of ice accretion in many areas.  One person was killed by a falling tree in Waterbury.

[ORH_wxman]

I mean CT needs to find another way to cripple the state's power grid.

 

I need to go back and browse the older storm data publications to find out what a truer sense of return period is.

 

 

Other big events I know are Dec 16-17, 1973 and Dec 4-5, 1964...the latter was more interior but the CP did see some decent icing in that. The '73 storm had a longitude gradient, but massive icing went right down to the CT shore in that.

[powderfreak]

BTV forecast high today is 49F (-6 on the high) and if it makes it, it would be the first sub-50 high at BTV since April 21. Sweet.

Departures will be really interesting after this weekend.

[SJonesWX]

You might of saw a small piece of the GOCE  Satelite that's beginning it fall back to Earth

might have, as we did see what appeared to be shooting stars in addition to the flash

[OceanStWx]

Other big events I know are Dec 16-17, 1973 and Dec 4-5, 1964...the latter was more interior but the CP did see some decent icing in that. The '73 storm had a longitude gradient, but massive icing went right down to the CT shore in that.

 

My thesis criteria was fairly simple (just needed at least one zone reach ice storm), but the conditions required were similar from localized events to more regional ones. The exception is probably January 28, 1994. That was just an extremely cold antecedent air mass that had temps climb from the single digits into the 50s as a cold front approached.

[ORH_wxman]

My thesis criteria was fairly simple (just needed at least one zone reach ice storm), but the conditions required were similar from localized events to more regional ones. The exception is probably January 28, 1994. That was just an extremely cold antecedent air mass that had temps climb from the single digits into the 50s as a cold front approached.

 

 

I remember the 1/28/94 storm...it was so cold the morning before that event it was hard to imagine rain, but they said it would change to rain after starting briefly as snow and then flipping to IP/ZR. The morning of the 28th was very icy I recall but then the CAD broke quickly, it went from near freezing to like 50F very fast. I think the actual storm cut through BUF or something. It was way west.

[TalcottWx]

Christ, by the way some panic over lack of November snow you would think its a major winter month for us. Storms in Nov usually minor anyways. Real winter isn't till Dec.

My Floridian roommates asked when snow usually first hits, told them after Thanksgiving.

[ORH_wxman]

Christ, by the way some panic over lack of November snow you would think its a major winter month for us. Storms in Nov usually minor anyways. Real winter isn't till Dec.

My Floridian roommates asked when snow usually first hits, told them after Thanksgiving.

 

I'd start mildly panicking if the stratosphere doesn't change in November from its current look.

[OceanStWx]

I remember the 1/28/94 storm...it was so cold the morning before that event it was hard to imagine rain, but they said it would change to rain after starting briefly as snow and then flipping to IP/ZR. The morning of the 28th was very icy I recall but then the CAD broke quickly, it went from near freezing to like 50F very fast. I think the actual storm cut through BUF or something. It was way west.

 

I believe it was out by BUF. There were thunderstorms that day across SNE.

[makwx]

29F  first time below 30 this year.  Just a touch of visible frost. 

 

Pepper plants in the garden look like they survived so far.

Same here.  My sunflowers look like they survived.

[Tropopause_Fold]

funny mix of years in the gfs and ec ens analogs today...some heavy hitters and duds...almost like all or nothing. 

[weathafella]

I'd start mildly panicking if the stratosphere doesn't change in November from its current look.

So what height is the worry zone. Eg below 30-50 mb it appears the vortex is somewhat perturbed d9.

[N. OF PIKE]

I'd start mildly panicking if the stratosphere doesn't change in November from its current look.

Weenies on the tobin ...T -30'ish days

[ORH_wxman]

So what height is the worry zone. Eg below 30-50 mb it appears the vortex is somewhat perturbed d9.

 

 

We'd like to see Siberia stratospheric temps warm (like 30-50mb) throughout November. It doesn't have to be a huge warming, we just want them generally above normal...it looks like they will start off cold. Right now, its quite warm where we want it to be, but that is going to change.

 

We'll see, no reason for panic this early, esp since the LR stratosphere forecasts aren't exactly great (esp beyond the typical D4-6).

[NorthShoreWx]

Other big events I know are Dec 16-17, 1973 and Dec 4-5, 1964...the latter was more interior but the CP did see some decent icing in that. The '73 storm had a longitude gradient, but massive icing went right down to the CT shore in that.

And beyond.  That ice storm was a big deal on LI too.

[Typhoon Tip]

I remember the 1/28/94 storm...it was so cold the morning before that event it was hard to imagine rain, but they said it would change to rain after starting briefly as snow and then flipping to IP/ZR. The morning of the 28th was very icy I recall but then the CAD broke quickly, it went from near freezing to like 50F very fast. I think the actual storm cut through BUF or something. It was way west.

 

I think I recall that one.  The early morning was 19F wth flurries and snow grains up at UML  But the temp just ticked up a degree every half hour, and it was right at 32F when the precip got steady and icy, but it only lasted for a couple of hours.  Just when the tree limbs were starting to glow, 34 ...35..jump to 37.  Then a breeze kicked in, and the air smelled dewy and it was 50 like light swtich.  I think the temp may have actually exceed 50 by a few degrees while the southerly gales opened up for a couple few hour prior to cold fropa.  The event may actually be in the upper tier of short duration temperature turn arounds.  

 

Cutter!

[Typhoon Tip]

By the way, I mentioned this yesterday ... but it seems NCEP is on the same page.  We should probably look at the up coming patterns as offered by the operational runs and even their ensemble means with some skepticism.   It's not just Francisco and Lekima.  The WPO and MJO are also opposing the +AO/+NAO warm signal.  It's possible that the +AO becomes so dominant that it alleviates the mid -latitude, mlv gradients to the point where these lower latitude telies get lost.  We'll have to see.

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
208 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 26 2013 - 12Z WED OCT 30 2013

...OVERVIEW...

FORECAST FOR THE END OF OCTOBER APPEARS TO BE MUCH BUSIER THAN THE SHORT TERM... WITH AN AMPLIFIED PACIFIC BASIN PROPAGATING
DOWNSTREAM INTO/ACROSS THE CONUS. THE SIMULTANEOUS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF TYPHOONS FRANCISCO AND LEKIMA IS LIKELY NOT TOO
WELL-HANDLED IN THE MODELS...

[weathafella]

So what height is the worry zone. Eg below 30-50 mb it appears the vortex is somewhat perturbed d9.

We'd like to see Siberia stratospheric temps warm (like 30-50mb) throughout November. It doesn't have to be a huge warming, we just want them generally above normal...it looks like they will start off cold. Right now, its quite warm where we want it to be, but that is going to change.

We'll see, no reason for panic this early, esp since the LR stratosphere forecasts aren't exactly great (esp beyond the typical D4-6).

It seems like variability though keeps the vortex moving around?

[CoastalWx]

FWIW the Euro ensembles 50mb T are cold through the 11-15 day over central and eastern Siberia. There is some mild warming hinted near Greenland towards the end.