powderfreak Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 PF just needs some upslope and he'll get it. Once that happens the concern posts will turn into pics of picnic tables in snow. True dat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 True dat! Late week into this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 The pattern certainly can't get LESS active, could it. Powder freak any plans for snowmaking from mountain ops Might blow out the nice for marketing if there's a good night but large-scale snowmaking doesn't look in the cards. Honestly, November has me puzzled and I'm not willing to say we are cold straight through. No one wants to make a bunch of snow now to watch it melt in Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Late week into this weekend I like the clipper this weekend...those are usually over-performers QPF-wise across the higher Spine and although temps are marginal, maybe 1-3" on the picnic tables? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Forecast gets tricky next week with the -NAO block breaking down, and this fight between the Pacific and Atlantic. But there's nothing really to keep ridging from surging from the southeast, so any cold shots next week seem like they'll be short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 I like the clipper this weekend...those are usually over-performers QPF-wise across the higher Spine and although temps are marginal, maybe 1-3" on the picnic tables? Can't wait to take my first trip up the Bolton Access Rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Ice cold rain if the GFS is right for SE MA. If it came down hard enough, can't rule out a catpaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Ice cold rain if the GFS is right for SE MA. If it came down hard enough, can't rule out a catpaw. Wetbulb 0C height is about 910mb...so that's low enough to give Blue Hill some mangled flakes if it comes down steady for a time. Most likely though is a miserable chilly rain. Low levels have trouble saturating so I wonder if everything is pretty light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Ice cold rain if the GFS is right for SE MA. If it came down hard enough, can't rule out a catpaw. This will be me Thursday. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Wetbulb 0C height is about 910mb...so that's low enough to give Blue Hill some mangled flakes if it comes down steady for a time. Most likely though is a miserable chilly rain. Low levels have trouble saturating so I wonder if everything is pretty light. Yeah it would have to be heavy. Nasty rain though. Sure will be like Autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 We'll have to see how the euro looks. The GFS has some good lift above 700mb in central MA, but low levels are dry. Probably will mean a virga storm, but beware of mid level frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Yeah it would have to be heavy. Nasty rain though. Sure will be like Autumn. This will be me Thursday. LOL. Sounds like fun--enjoy it. Just light showers here for the last 90 minutes or so. 53.4/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 We'll have to see how the euro looks. The GFS has some good lift above 700mb in central MA, but low levels are dry. Probably will mean a virga storm, but beware of mid level frontogenesis. Should Ice warrior commander get his lady to grab the ruler and have it ready (remember those pics/ha awesome) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Euro is dry for most NW of TAN-GON-BDR. Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Euro is dry for most NW of TAN-GON-BDR. Hmm. Whoooosh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Euro is dry for most NW of TAN-GON-BDR. Hmm. That sounds like the NAM/GFS/GGEM/Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Euro is dry for most NW of TAN-GON-BDR. Hmm. Not too shocking..its been furthest SE for a while now. Low levels dry and progressive flow make it a more believable scenario. If anything, tomorrow's temps could bust a bit cold with drier low levels and potential virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 I like what I see here! The winter speculation forum had more pattern talk, and I saw loads of "what about after november?" talk here. Don't know mush about Mr. DiMartino, but my science teacher said he's a pretty smart guy. He has a pay site, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Tougher to do that these days versus years ago, but if we get a big time cold shot, who knows...Maine and Oklahoma set their all time state cold records in the past 5 years. It would help if we had the PV on our side of the globe like it was more often in the 1990s...1996 had a pretty epic cold shot though it wasn't as ridiculous in New England, but out in the plains it was...and we all know about 1994, though I always put an asterisk next to that one because of Pinatubo likely playing some role. Of course Jan 2004 set some records for cold shots over several days, but didn't threaten all time lows...too much wind in those cold shots. I kind of agree with Snowman. I do like a good long sustained cold outbreak and it's been a while since I've down in the -10's, let alone -20s like 1/15/1988. I'd love to feel that again. I loved that at Lyndon, especially Dec '89 but that can't be expected. Anything would be better than the long periods of fairly stable weather...we need something to shake it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Not too shocking..its been furthest SE for a while now. Low levels dry and progressive flow make it a more believable scenario. If anything, tomorrow's temps could bust a bit cold with drier low levels and potential virga. The GFS lift above 700mb is usually a red flag for precip despite the models not showing it, but the low levels are dry. Euro was wetter last night but now dry again. That's too bad. Even the GEFS are wet..almost like euro against them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Clipper maybe this weekend? Gotta hope for some snow inland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Snowing at the peaks in northern VT...bright banding and 33F up top. Jay Peak reporting snow now, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 At this point in time, you gotta ask wrt models, "WWRD" And with the rev in shutdown mode the KURO Is not running at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Clipper maybe this weekend? Gotta hope for some snow inland... My snow grids trimmed the rain/snow mix back north some, closer to IZG now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 tumblr_le45po76Ug1qb9fdoo1_500.gif It will come soon enough. Anticipation sux! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Snowing at the peaks in northern VT...bright banding and 33F up top. Jay Peak reporting snow now, too. Are u on ur way to the summit powder freak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 The GFS lift above 700mb is usually a red flag for precip despite the models not showing it, but the low levels are dry. Euro was wetter last night but now dry again. That's too bad. Even the GEFS are wet..almost like euro against them all. How much would euro have to shift to look like GEFS. Even if it less than likely at this point , im not sure wether i would pick am area like foster, ri or blue hill to have better shot at flakes. I hope GEFS owns euro (and euro caves tonite) and that KEV gets a coating of snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 How much would euro have to shift to look like GEFS. Even if it less than likely at this point , im not sure wether i would pick am area like foster, ri or blue hill to have better shot at flakes. I hope GEFS owns euro (and euro caves tonite) and that KEV gets a coating of snow . Maybe 50 miles or so. Models aren't always great with these bands that blossom from SW-NE in response to mid level fronto, but it is progressive and just a wee bit too warm I think. If the GFS was right, I'd be somewhat more interested in the higher terrain...but it could be too far west. Potent s/w but the euro is south of the GFS for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Maybe 50 miles or so. Models aren't always great with these bands that blossom from SW-NE in response to mid level fronto, but it is progressive and just a wee bit too warm I think. If the GFS was right, I'd be somewhat more interested in the higher terrain...but it could be too far west. Potent s/w but the euro is south of the GFS for now. The end of the 12z euro today is pretty ugly, looks like the U.S. is flooded with mild Pacific air. Hopefully thats wrong. It does have a big winter storm early next week for the upper mid-west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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