Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

[moneypitmike]

lol great.

I may take over for MPM but I'm a little concerned with the dry pattern we've had the last few weeks. Since our snowfall correlates to precip more than temps up north, I always get antsy for some moisture to start showing up. Even if it's rain, I'd take some storms or cutter just to get some moisture around.

Any of the long range mets see signs of a wetter pattern developing or more active? Like southern stream moisture on the rise?

 

I think you owe yourself a couple more buns for that post, Scott. 

[CoastalWx]

PF just needs some upslope and he'll get it. Once that happens the concern posts will turn into pics of picnic tables in snow.

[ORH_wxman]

There's mixed signals right now, but I think we are trending more toward a torch in middle November after the first several days of the month. I know a lot of people don't want to hear that but its beginning to look like we could get into that type of pattern. Given the ensemble spread and the uncertainty in the MJO phase and strength...pretty big differences between the ensemble suites on that so the confidence is obviously very low.

[CoastalWx]

There's mixed signals right now, but I think we are trending more toward a torch in middle November after the first several days of the month. I know a lot of people don't want to hear that but its beginning to look like we could get into that type of pattern. Given the ensemble spread and the uncertainty in the MJO phase and strength...pretty big differences between the ensemble suites on that so the confidence is obviously very low.

 

I'd say there is uncertainty in the MJO....lol.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I guess it just depends on what happens near AK. If we see heights lower there combined with the monster +NAO then we furnace hard. Just tough to tell right now.

[Brian5671]

LOL what about Oct 2011?

Sure we did have the big bomb, but that was it in a sea of tranquility

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I would rather have a mild October and November than crazy cold.  I'd rather save the cold for winter.

[ORH_wxman]

Sure we did have the big bomb, but that was it in a sea of tranquility

 

 

We had a lot of rain that month before that...it was a very wet month.

[CoastalWx]

I don't really see the Oct precip correlation. Unless we see a big AK vortex develop in November...I have a hard time seeing it become very dry. That black hole in AK combined with the +NAO would be a reason why we dry out.

[CoastalWx]

Unless we get some sun, I'd probably take off a couple of degrees tomorrow. If it does precip in SE MA, it will fall into the L40s.

[Ginx snewx]

Nov 1993

[weathafella]

The persistence of the dry pattern is a bit concerning but not alarming at this point.

Look for a big winter but despite what some say, at least for sne November is not and never has been a winter month.

[Ginx snewx]

The persistence of the dry pattern is a bit concerning but not alarming at this point.

Look for a big winter but despite what some say, at least for sne November is not and never has been a winter month.

If Nov ends up below normal the correlation duo of warm Oct Cold Nov is pretty sweet. The first week of Nov has potential to shove some record cold then we relax for a couple of weeks before a reload is how I see the evolution. 

[Ginx snewx]

Not to worry weenie nation

[moneypitmike]

Unless we get some sun, I'd probably take off a couple of degrees tomorrow. If it does precip in SE MA, it will fall into the L40s.

 

I'm wondering where my mild is today.  There are a couple spots on the pdfamily site that are showing up with cool temps still.  The Pit is one of them as I sit at 47.9/46.  Figure it's just a matter of time until I spike up several degrees.  But, it is a little interesting to see these isolated spots on that map.

 

The persistence of the dry pattern is a bit concerning but not alarming at this point.

Look for a big winter but despite what some say, at least for sne November is not and never has been a winter month.

 

If you look at the opinions expressed in the guesses made in the 1st inch poll I created, you'll get a sense that most people dont' see November as a winter month.  I think people are mostly guessing light snows in a couple instances.  Granted, the poll's asking first inch, and in some people's minds that might be the first inch of a 14" Miller B.....

[weathafella]

If Nov ends up below normal the correlation duo of warm Oct Cold Nov is pretty sweet. The first week of Nov has potential to shove some record cold then we relax for a couple of weeks before a reload is how I see the evolution.

Those are my thoughts as well. 2002esque but perhaps the mid month warmth lasts a few days longer.

[N. OF PIKE]

Well if more of a gradient pattern develops then yes, the pattern will get more active and I think it will. October 2005 had record rains and ask everyone up north how that winter was.

The pattern certainly can't get LESS active, could it.

Powder freak any plans for snowmaking from mountain ops

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The persistence of the dry pattern is a bit concerning but not alarming at this point.

Look for a big winter but despite what some say, at least for sne November is not and never has been a winter month.

 

I'd certainly prefer to get the below average precip out of the way now.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm wondering where my mild is today.  There are a couple spots on the pdfamily site that are showing up with cool temps still.  The Pit is one of them as I sit at 47.9/46.  Figure it's just a matter of time until I spike up several degrees.  But, it is a little interesting to see these isolated spots on that map.

 

 

If you look at the opinions expressed in the guesses made in the 1st inch poll I created, you'll get a sense that most people dont' see November as a winter month.  I think people are mostly guessing light snows in a couple instances.  Granted, the poll's asking first inch, and in some people's minds that might be the first inch of a 14" Miller B.....

 

 

The median first inch for ORH in the past 25 years or so is November 16th. Large spread of course...10/16/09 was the earliest in that time while January 13, 2000 was the latest (that is the latest first inch for many areas around here)

[Ginx snewx]

I'd certainly prefer to get the below average precip out of the way now.

exactly and the stretch of in active weather goes back to memorial day Miller B. Climo alone should kick in shortly one would think but not unheard of the have a dry cold winter, rarely are winters warm and dry.

[moneypitmike]

exactly and the stretch of in active weather goes back to memorial day Miller B. Climo alone should kick in shortly one would think but not unheard of the have a dry cold winter, rarely are winters warm and dry.

 

Worst case, we'll have good pond skating. 

 

48.5/46

 

[ORH_wxman]

exactly and the stretch of in active weather goes back to memorial day Miller B. Climo alone should kick in shortly one would think but not unheard of the have a dry cold winter, rarely are winters warm and dry.

 

Actually most of our bad winters are warm and dry. 2011-2012 was the most recent one. '01-'02 was bone dry and a furnace and so were winters like 1999-2000, 1994-1995, 1991-1992, 1990-1991, 1984-1985, 1982-1983, and 1979-1980,...all warm and dry.

 

 

We prefer warm and wet winters like 2007-2008 and 2012-2013. Other warm/wet winters were 1998-1999, 1996-1997, 1997-1998, 1986-1987, 1975-1976, 1971-1972, 1974-1975...while not exactly a scintillating group as a whole, they are certainly way better than the dead-ratter warm/dry group.

[snowman21]

Worst case, we'll have good pond skating. 

 

48.5/46

I'd trade a good snow winter for a good cold one with lots of record lows set and big negative departures. We've had plenty of snow recently, but not so much cold. I know most like the snow more than the cold, but I'd like to see the state record challenged during my lifetime since we've seen the state high temp record challenged and broken a few times in the last couple of decades.

[Ginx snewx]

Actually most of our bad winters are warm and dry. 2011-2012 was the most recent one. '01-'02 was bone dry and a furnace and so were winters like 1999-2000, 1994-1995, 1991-1992, 1990-1991, 1984-1985, 1982-1983, and 1979-1980,...all warm and dry.

We prefer warm and wet winters like 2007-2008 and 2012-2013. Other warm/wet winters were 1998-1999, 1996-1997, 1997-1998, 1986-1987, 1975-1976, 1971-1972, 1974-1975...while not exactly a scintillating group as a whole, they are certainly way better than the dead-ratter warm/dry group.

warm and wet is always good

[CoastalWx]

65 out. Nice.

[Ginx snewx]

65 out. Nice.

perfect

[ORH_wxman]

I'd trade a good snow winter for a good cold one with lots of record lows set and big negative departures. We've had plenty of snow recently, but not so much cold. I know most like the snow more than the cold, but I'd like to see the state record challenged during my lifetime since we've seen the state high temp record challenged and broken a few times in the last couple of decades.

 

 

Tougher to do that these days versus years ago, but if we get a big time cold shot, who knows...Maine and Oklahoma set their all time state cold records in the past 5 years. It would help if we had the PV on our side of the globe like it was more often in the 1990s...1996 had a pretty epic cold shot though it wasn't as ridiculous in New England, but out in the plains it was...and we all know about 1994, though I always put an asterisk next to that one because of Pinatubo likely playing some role.

 

Of course Jan 2004 set some records for cold shots over several days, but didn't threaten all time lows...too much wind in those cold shots.

[dryslot]

Yesterday's forecast (using GFS thicknesses) brought a rain/snow mix down to the WFO overnight.

 

Having it fall overnight this time of the year helps to see flakeage when possible

[Baroclinic Zone]

Nice cold rain on the NAM/GFS.  Low 40s.

[N. OF PIKE]

Actually most of our bad winters are warm and dry. 2011-2012 was the most recent one. '01-'02 was bone dry and a furnace and so were winters like 1999-2000, 1994-1995, 1991-1992, 1990-1991, 1984-1985, 1982-1983, and 1979-1980,...all warm and dry.

We prefer warm and wet winters like 2007-2008 and 2012-2013. Other warm/wet winters were 1998-1999, 1996-1997, 1997-1998, 1986-1987, 1975-1976, 1971-1972, 1974-1975...while not exactly a scintillating group as a whole, they are certainly way better than the dead-ratter warm/dry group.

Wow, pretty impressive list.

And the back to back in 90-91/91-92 ..man

I would wonder was NNE as abnormaly dry as us, bc one would think their least snowiest winters would show up in the dry winters w more correlation than us. Im gonna try to run those years w the mt. Mansfield snow stake data

I think forky posted that nearly all major recent cold outbreaks and records had a -EPO , so i guess that is one key.

[dryslot]

I would rather have a mild October and November than crazy cold.  I'd rather save the cold for winter.

 

I agree scott, Bring it in late november to carry it thru december before it relaxes into the 1st of Jan