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Second Half of October Wx Discussion?


CT Rain

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What's with the chill?  I was expecting sunny and low 60's.  Clouds moved in over the past hour or so and I've dropped from my high of 55.2 at 9:20 to a current 52.8/46.    I was outside mowing grass/leaves and was thinking I was coming down with something becuase I felt cold.  Nope--just teh temp.

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Kevin managed to score a win with the clouds. No model showed this... even at 6z this morning. Hell, before daybreak the clouds broke and it was basically CLR here at HFD around 430 when I went into work. 

 

Most stations at like 4-6am were "A few clouds" or "Fair" or "Clear"... would've looked like a decent day at the time of the morning news probably.

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Most stations at like 4-6am were "A few clouds" or "Fair" or "Clear"... would've looked like a decent day at the time of the morning news probably.

 

By 8 or so we know BOS and especially the north shore was screwed - I was surprised we managed to get the clouds all the way down here. I figured they struggle part 495/ORH Hills. 

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Most stations at like 4-6am were "A few clouds" or "Fair" or "Clear"... would've looked like a decent day at the time of the morning news probably.

 

Yeah it was funny... it was OVC last night when I left work at 1130 p.m. and when I headed into work at 430 a.m. the clouds broke as expected with the dry air advecting in as expected. 

 

Turned ugly late this morning for whatever reason. 

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The 06z models did catch onto a ribbon of higher RH moving in...especially the NAM but it was too late until the satellite pics came in. You could see it on IR actually. Still...by 9am it was apparent that clouds were moving in, but I don't think some of the mets looked out there windows...or satellite.

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The 06z models did catch onto a ribbon of higher RH moving in...especially the NAM but it was too late until the satellite pics came in. You could see it on IR actually. Still...by 9am it was apparent that clouds were moving in, but I don't think some of the mets looked out there windows...or satellite.

 

Cape Ann is clearing out finally.

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And what meteorology is that? There really weren't any signals yesterday for low clouds - models all brought in a nice push of dry air. 

 

You just added fuel to his rage, Ryan.   He's questioning the use of models from yesterday, and you counter with "..Models all brought..."

 

Just sayin'

 

Yeah, hind sight being 20/20 ... we've had a deep layer fetch moving west from off an ocean; any model predicting a dry air push, well...  Personally I was thinking the high would settle more on top of us, and that would effectively cut-off the unrelenting onshore pump.  But the high is stubborn and not settling south ...haha, as modeled yesterday.  

 

There is a sharp clearing edge up over NE Mass on sat -- maybe that will clear us out from the ocean side.   

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Just something fun to watch. The GEFS has been consistent with sneaking a disturbance under the ridge toward the SW US around day 7. Obviously the timing of these features are super hard to peg, especially determining when they'll actually eject eastward across the CONUS. But, around this period, the ridging over western North America is starting to break, sending a ton of cyclonic vorticity on the poleward side of the jet, southward into the CONUS. If the timing is right between these two features, toss in a moderately strong -NAO block that is beginning to weaken, and that's a recipe for some cold season storminess from the Ohio Valley to eastern US.

 

post-128-0-59017300-1381692018_thumb.gif

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Just something fun to watch. The GEFS has been consistent with sneaking a disturbance under the ridge toward the SW US around day 7. Obviously the timing of these features are super hard to peg, especially determining when they'll actually eject eastward across the CONUS. But, around this period, the ridging over western North America is starting to break, sending a ton of cyclonic vorticity on the poleward side of the jet, southward into the CONUS. If the timing is right between these two features, toss in a moderately strong -NAO block that is beginning to weaken, and that's a recipe for some cold season storminess from the Ohio Valley to eastern US.

 

attachicon.giff168 (1).gif

 

Few things raise the spirits of cold-season fans more than Sam's visit to the forum!  How's it going down there?  Hope you're well.  Wil you be making it east for the winter?  We'll need your maps!!

 

55.1/47

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Easy Sam some sensitive peeps around here when it comes to Oct snow. STJ is impressive too.

 

Meh... we've had 4 instances of October measurable snow at BDL since 1905. I'm not exactly excited about it.

 

Maybe some flakes for the mountains up north but nothing that makes most reasonable weather weenies excited.

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Few things raise the spirits of cold-season fans more than Sam's visit to the forum!  How's it going down there?  Hope you're well.  Wil you be making it east for the winter?  We'll need your maps!!

 

55.1/47

 

Haha thanks man. Things are going well. They're keeping me busy haha. I'll definitely be coming back east for a few weeks. Work on getting a snowstorm for me around then please!

 

 

Meh... we've had 4 instances of October measurable snow at BDL since 1905. I'm not exactly excited about it.

 

Maybe some flakes for the mountains up north but nothing that makes most reasonable weather weenies excited.

 

Yeah, I mean you know what I'm actually watching. More or less these opportunities in October are cold rain, ending as a few snow showers in the mountains, with wind and freeze warnings to follow. It's the characteristics of the synoptic stage that make me refer to it as a "cold season storm"

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Yeah, I mean you know what I'm actually watching. More or less these opportunities in October are cold rain, ending as a few snow showers in the mountains, with wind and freeze warnings to follow. It's the characteristics of the synoptic stage that make me refer to it as a "cold season storm"

That's exactly what happens haha...the windy and freeze warnings with scattered orographic snow showers in the mountains sounds spot on climo for late October, lol.

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Yeah, I mean you know what I'm actually watching. More or less these opportunities in October are cold rain, ending as a few snow showers in the mountains, with wind and freeze warnings to follow. It's the characteristics of the synoptic stage that make me refer to it as a "cold season storm"

 

LOL oh yeah I get that... the usual suspects are likely expecting flakes south of the Pike. 

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