powderfreak Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 PF doing his best to meh -10 departure for highs. First shot is cold second shot is colder. We've had 6 days this month with +10 or higher DAILY departures. That's impressive. It'll be interesting to see if we have any -10 or below departures up here with this cold shot once max/mins are all factored in. How many -10 departures for daily temps are you thinking Ginxy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 PF is the new LL? +10s seem common recently. -10s naso much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 We've had 6 days this month with +10 or higher DAILY departures. That's impressive. It'll be interesting to see if we have any -10 or below departures up here with this cold shot once max/mins are all factored in. How many -10 departures for daily temps are you thinking Ginxy? You tell me, next shot looks coldhttp://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kbtv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 PF is the new LL? +10s seem common recently. -10s naso much Haha it's been a sunsational month No I'm just wondering what folks are thinking for departures. It's awesome it's getting cold, but it doesn't seem completely absurd for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 You tell me, next shot looks cold http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kbtv The shot out near Nov 1st looks nice. Model fantasy land but that would be sweet. It'll be interesting to see what this week's departures are come next Sunday. I really think SNE stands to see much lower departures relative to normal than up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Haha it's been a sunsational month No I'm just wondering what folks are thinking for departures. It's awesome it's getting cold, but it doesn't seem completely absurd for this time of year. BTVs normal average for today is 47, drops to 46 by weeks end then to 43 by the end of the next week. You said highs in the low 40s lows in the upper 20 s and low 30 s . When your high is below your average for the day it's pretty cold so figure say 42/28 that's a 35 so -10 to -12, which no matter what time of the year is significant and notable not meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Haha it's been a sunsational month No I'm just wondering what folks are thinking for departures. It's awesome it's getting cold, but it doesn't seem completely absurd for this time of year. The first decent cold will get the general public's attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 BTVs normal average for today is 47, drops to 46 by weeks end then to 43 by the end of the next week. You said highs in the low 40s lows in the upper 20 s and low 30 s . When your high is below your average for the day it's pretty cold so figure say 42/28 that's a 35 so -10 to -12, which no matter what time of the year is significant and notable not meh.Yeah I was talking about Lamoille County here bud. That zone factors in all elevations too, so my temps usually end up on the warmer side being at only 750ft. BTV's forecast temps are 5F higher. Averages are low 50s to low 30s. So say 44/32 would put up like -5. Hopefully we get a -10 day of like 42/22. Essentially a -10 needs MVL to average 32F during the course of a day. It is notable, just no where near as significant as the warmth this month. It doesnt mean I don't love cold/winter, I just like to be objective and not biased cold or warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 BTVs normal average for today is 47, drops to 46 by weeks end then to 43 by the end of the next week. You said highs in the low 40s lows in the upper 20 s and low 30 s . When your high is below your average for the day it's pretty cold so figure say 42/28 that's a 35 so -10 to -12, which no matter what time of the year is significant and notable not meh. Do you work for the cold lobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Do you work for the cold lobbyhuh? Just put out some numbers for comparison. I could care less at this time of year. 65/35 would be nice actually until Tday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Yeah I was talking about Lamoille County here bud. That zone factors in all elevations too, so my temps usually end up on the warmer side being at only 750ft. BTV's forecast temps are 5F higher. Averages are low 50s to low 30s. So say 44/32 would put up like -5. Hopefully we get a -10 day of like 42/22. Essentially a -10 needs MVL to average 32F during the course of a day. It is notable, just no where near as significant as the warmth this month. It doesnt mean I don't love cold/winter, I just like to be objective and not biased cold or warm. what the heck does the last sentence even mean. Do you forecast for a living? Or are you ascared of the weather policia? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 We've had 6 days this month with +10 or higher DAILY departures. That's impressive. It'll be interesting to see if we have any -10 or below departures up here with this cold shot once max/mins are all factored in. How many -10 departures for daily temps are you thinking Ginxy? are these MVL numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Didn't mpm chastise us for temperature talk during the July heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 are these MVL numbers? I thought so but maybe it was BTV. It's between 4-6. I'm on mobile but can look it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 How did the Nam look for the coastal............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 what the heck does the last sentence even mean. Do you forecast for a living? Or are you ascared of the weather policia? Lol You don't like being objective when it comes to weather? I like analyzing it and doesn't matter if it's hot or cold, I just like looking at it from an unbiased perspective. Not all my posts will be about cold cold cold or warm warm warm. I may not technically forecast for a living, but all weather related stuff goes through me at the ski resort, so I like to be right. Whether it's researching historical weather data and climate info for feasibility studies prior to projects at the mountain or putting together snowmaking plans based on weather, I don't like to be biased one way because then I feel like I'm looking for things to support the weather I want...if that makes any sense. I want it to stay cold right through November, but it's not about what I want. So if it looks to warm up, I'll throw that in a long range operations outlook just as easily as I will a cool down. And this time of year, departures relative to average are important to me in any long range snowmaking outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 You don't like being objective when it comes to weather? I like analyzing it and doesn't matter if it's hot or cold, I just like looking at it from an unbiased perspective. Not all my posts will be about cold cold cold or warm warm warm. I may not technically forecast for a living, but all weather related stuff goes through me at the ski resort, so I like to be right. Whether it's researching historical weather data and climate info for feasibility studies prior to projects at the mountain or putting together snowmaking plans based on weather, I don't like to be biased one way because then I feel like I'm looking for things to support the weather I want...if that makes any sense. I want it to stay cold right through November, but it's not about what I want. So if it looks to warm up, I'll throw that in a long range operations outlook just as easily as I will a cool down. And this time of year, departures relative to average are important to me in any long range snowmaking outlooks. Oh professionally I have to be very precise. Here I am able to have some leeway because it does not change a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Oh professionally I have to be very precise. Here I am able to have some leeway because it does not change a thing. Very true...hey, at least seasons will be acting like seasons. Maybe we can score a record low or record low max temp somewhere. Negative departures aside, it's going to be a huge shock to the public given how the month has gone so far. The descent into winter starts again after a three week stall this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 How did the Nam look for the coastal............... It actually kinda sorta exists a little bit now. BOX says that the NAM is, and I quote, "way out to lunch so never considered it". GFS has a nice little QPF band in central MA at 75h. I would certainly not say this is the blockbuster storm of the year, though. NAM: GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 It actually kinda sorta exists a little bit now. BOX says that the NAM is, and I quote, "way out to lunch so never considered it". GFS has a nice little QPF band in central MA at 75h. I would certainly not say this is the blockbuster storm of the year, though. NAM: GFS: Lol, Once you have been on here a while to, You will see most on here will agree with box.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Lol, Once you have been on here a while to, You will see most on here will agree with box.......... Very good point. Maybe I should just say whatever Noyes says instead . I wonder if Bastardi has called for a east coast blizzard yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Been a while since I saw BOX use wording like that. I tittered. But the rest makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Very good point. Maybe I should just say whatever Noyes says instead . I wonder if Bastardi has called for a east coast blizzard yet... I am sure JB will hype one soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Didn't mpm chastise us for temperature talk during the July heat? LOL--I don't know if 'chastised' is what I did, but I did bemoan the fact that we could go pages and pages of threads arguing about what is/isn't a torch, what's hot/not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 LOL--I don't know if 'chastised' is what I did, but I did bemoan the fact that we could go pages and pages of threads arguing about what is/isn't a torch, what's hot/not. My opinion is that a torch is when you get a day or series of days that are noticeably warmer than the days leading up to and after the event in question. I suppose a freeze is the opposite. Course, that is completely unprofessional. So, in my opinion, it is gonna be cold this week. Snow or no snow, I'm breaking out my fuzzy slippers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Looks like the cold rain will be relegated well to the SE. I hope folks in CT/RI/eastern-SE Mass don't mind wet leaves. Pretty meh either way you slice it at this point. At least we get some 'spring training' (so to speak) for our winter tracking. 43.0/35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 If we do get rain, those temps near 50 will be more like low 40s in the CP and maybe cooler in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 If we do get rain, those temps near 50 will be more like low 40s in the CP and maybe cooler in the interio Perhaps--I think the BOX area that consists of what I think of as "the near interior" (anywhere away from the water and I-84/Pike Corridor and southeast) will get rain and the cooler temps. Beyond that, I won't be surprised if the areas in the NW will steer clear of any rain and deal with a low/mid 40's deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Perhaps--I think the BOX area that consists of what I think of as "the near interior" (anywhere away from the water and I-84/Pike Corridor and southeast) will get rain and the cooler temps. Beyond that, I won't be surprised if the areas in the NW will steer clear of any rain and deal with a low/mid 40's deal. More than perhaps if you get rain. I'm not sold on it even here though. Euro is rather dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Frost in the burbs this morning too. Noticed it here in Andover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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