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Second Half of October Wx Discussion?


CT Rain

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PF doing his best to meh -10 departure for highs. First shot is cold second shot is colder.

We've had 6 days this month with +10 or higher DAILY departures. That's impressive. It'll be interesting to see if we have any -10 or below departures up here with this cold shot once max/mins are all factored in.

How many -10 departures for daily temps are you thinking Ginxy?

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We've had 6 days this month with +10 or higher DAILY departures. That's impressive. It'll be interesting to see if we have any -10 or below departures up here with this cold shot once max/mins are all factored in.

How many -10 departures for daily temps are you thinking Ginxy?

You tell me, next shot looks cold

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kbtv

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The shot out near Nov 1st looks nice. Model fantasy land but that would be sweet.

It'll be interesting to see what this week's departures are come next Sunday. I really think SNE stands to see much lower departures relative to normal than up here.

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Haha it's been a sunsational month :lol:

No I'm just wondering what folks are thinking for departures. It's awesome it's getting cold, but it doesn't seem completely absurd for this time of year.

BTVs normal average for today is 47, drops to 46 by weeks end then to 43 by the end of the next week. You said highs in the low 40s lows in the upper 20 s and low 30 s . When your high is below your average for the day it's pretty cold so figure say 42/28 that's a 35 so -10 to -12, which no matter what time of the year is significant and notable not meh.
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BTVs normal average for today is 47, drops to 46 by weeks end then to 43 by the end of the next week. You said highs in the low 40s lows in the upper 20 s and low 30 s . When your high is below your average for the day it's pretty cold so figure say 42/28 that's a 35 so -10 to -12, which no matter what time of the year is significant and notable not meh.

Yeah I was talking about Lamoille County here bud. That zone factors in all elevations too, so my temps usually end up on the warmer side being at only 750ft. BTV's forecast temps are 5F higher.

Averages are low 50s to low 30s. So say 44/32 would put up like -5. Hopefully we get a -10 day of like 42/22. Essentially a -10 needs MVL to average 32F during the course of a day.

It is notable, just no where near as significant as the warmth this month. It doesnt mean I don't love cold/winter, I just like to be objective and not biased cold or warm.

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BTVs normal average for today is 47, drops to 46 by weeks end then to 43 by the end of the next week. You said highs in the low 40s lows in the upper 20 s and low 30 s . When your high is below your average for the day it's pretty cold so figure say 42/28 that's a 35 so -10 to -12, which no matter what time of the year is significant and notable not meh.

Do you work for the cold lobby

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Yeah I was talking about Lamoille County here bud. That zone factors in all elevations too, so my temps usually end up on the warmer side being at only 750ft. BTV's forecast temps are 5F higher.

Averages are low 50s to low 30s. So say 44/32 would put up like -5. Hopefully we get a -10 day of like 42/22. Essentially a -10 needs MVL to average 32F during the course of a day.

It is notable, just no where near as significant as the warmth this month. It doesnt mean I don't love cold/winter, I just like to be objective and not biased cold or warm.

what the heck does the last sentence even mean. Do you forecast for a living? Or are you ascared of the weather policia? Lol
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We've had 6 days this month with +10 or higher DAILY departures. That's impressive. It'll be interesting to see if we have any -10 or below departures up here with this cold shot once max/mins are all factored in.

How many -10 departures for daily temps are you thinking Ginxy?

are these MVL numbers?
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what the heck does the last sentence even mean. Do you forecast for a living? Or are you ascared of the weather policia? Lol

You don't like being objective when it comes to weather?

I like analyzing it and doesn't matter if it's hot or cold, I just like looking at it from an unbiased perspective. Not all my posts will be about cold cold cold or warm warm warm. I may not technically forecast for a living, but all weather related stuff goes through me at the ski resort, so I like to be right. Whether it's researching historical weather data and climate info for feasibility studies prior to projects at the mountain or putting together snowmaking plans based on weather, I don't like to be biased one way because then I feel like I'm looking for things to support the weather I want...if that makes any sense.

I want it to stay cold right through November, but it's not about what I want. So if it looks to warm up, I'll throw that in a long range operations outlook just as easily as I will a cool down. And this time of year, departures relative to average are important to me in any long range snowmaking outlooks.

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You don't like being objective when it comes to weather?

I like analyzing it and doesn't matter if it's hot or cold, I just like looking at it from an unbiased perspective. Not all my posts will be about cold cold cold or warm warm warm. I may not technically forecast for a living, but all weather related stuff goes through me at the ski resort, so I like to be right. Whether it's researching historical weather data and climate info for feasibility studies prior to projects at the mountain or putting together snowmaking plans based on weather, I don't like to be biased one way because then I feel like I'm looking for things to support the weather I want...if that makes any sense.

I want it to stay cold right through November, but it's not about what I want. So if it looks to warm up, I'll throw that in a long range operations outlook just as easily as I will a cool down. And this time of year, departures relative to average are important to me in any long range snowmaking outlooks.

Oh professionally I have to be very precise. Here I am able to have some leeway because it does not change a thing.
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Oh professionally I have to be very precise. Here I am able to have some leeway because it does not change a thing.

Very true...hey, at least seasons will be acting like seasons. Maybe we can score a record low or record low max temp somewhere. Negative departures aside, it's going to be a huge shock to the public given how the month has gone so far. The descent into winter starts again after a three week stall this month.

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How did the Nam look for the coastal............... :ph34r:

It actually kinda sorta exists a little bit now.  BOX says that the NAM is, and I quote, "way out to lunch so never considered it".  GFS has a nice little QPF band in central MA at 75h.  I would certainly not say this is the blockbuster storm of the year, though.  

 

NAM:namUS_sfc_prec_084.gif

 

GFS:

gfsUS_sfc_prec_075.gif

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It actually kinda sorta exists a little bit now.  BOX says that the NAM is, and I quote, "way out to lunch so never considered it".  GFS has a nice little QPF band in central MA at 75h.  I would certainly not say this is the blockbuster storm of the year, though.  

 

NAM:namUS_sfc_prec_084.gif

 

GFS:

gfsUS_sfc_prec_075.gif

 

Lol, Once you have been on here a while to, You will see most on here will agree with box.......... ;)

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LOL--I don't know if 'chastised' is what I did, but I did bemoan the fact that we could go pages and pages of threads arguing about what is/isn't a torch, what's hot/not.

My opinion is that a torch is when you get a day or series of days that are noticeably warmer than the days leading up to and after the event in question.  I suppose a freeze is the opposite.  Course, that is completely unprofessional.

 

So, in my opinion, it is gonna be cold this week.  Snow or no snow, I'm breaking out my fuzzy slippers! 

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If we do get rain, those temps near 50 will be more like low 40s in the CP and maybe cooler in the interio

 

Perhaps--I think the BOX area that consists of what I think of as "the near interior" (anywhere away from the water and I-84/Pike Corridor and southeast) will get rain and the cooler temps.  Beyond that, I won't be surprised if the areas in the NW will steer clear of any rain and deal with a low/mid 40's deal.

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Perhaps--I think the BOX area that consists of what I think of as "the near interior" (anywhere away from the water and I-84/Pike Corridor and southeast) will get rain and the cooler temps.  Beyond that, I won't be surprised if the areas in the NW will steer clear of any rain and deal with a low/mid 40's deal.

 

More than perhaps if you get rain. I'm not sold on it even here though. Euro is rather dry.

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