dryslot Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 NAM says 'stop those snow dreams'. Not much in the way of rain for that matter either. 49.8/36 lol, Really Mike? The 84hr Nam............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 The record low today at Burlington is 15F, lol @ this cold front today and lol @ our "coldest" low so far this month of 37F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 The record low today at Burlington is 15F, lol @ this cold front today and lol @ our "coldest" low so far this month of 37F. It is pretty ridiculous how warm it's been. I think we get a few days of decent negative departures but not sold on like a 7-10 day run of them. Normals and records are tanking this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Well lol, Really Mike? The 84hr Nam............... Well, with the GFS pretty much a whiff and the EC somewhat closer, it's not exactly off the wall is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 It is pretty ridiculous how warm it's been. I think we get a few days of decent negative departures but not sold on like a 7-10 day run of them. Normals and records are tanking this time of year. Won't catch me complaining though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Won't catch me complaining though Even if we get a week that only ends up averaging like -1F for departures, that's still a 8.5F drop in the means (relative to normal) from the first three weeks of this month. Should be a very noticeable shift to the public regardless of what the departures end up being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 For 11/1, the avg 850 temp along the pike is about +5...+7 down around NYC and about +2 up in your area. Where can you find this data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Looks like 12z models are back on again for the low. Cannot tell how temps are, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Where can you find this data?Some ensembles have climo 850 temps and you can also tell by anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Today's high of 55F felt downright cold even though it is the climo normal high temperature. Dews have fallen into the 20s now....currently 28F for a Td here. This is normal fall weather. Now we see just how below normal this stretch gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Today's high of 55F felt downright cold even though it is the climo normal high temperature. Dews have fallen into the 20s now....currently 28F for a Td here. This is normal fall weather. Now we see just how below normal this stretch gets. Not too often that we match you at this time of year. Had a high of 54.7. 53.4/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Weeklies look cold especially second week with the moderation showing up by Nov 9 th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Looks like 12z models are back on again for the low. Cannot tell how temps are, however. Yes--for my hood would nice to see it come about 50- 75 miles west of where the GFS is showing it maybe 100 miles on the EC (from the crappy map I can see). Most likely a cold rain--can't argue climo at this time range. 52.5/32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Not too often that we match you at this time of year. Had a high of 54.7. 53.4/30 I think you match us for high temps more than you think, at least down in the village/MVL elevation (700-800ft). We then destroy you at night for lows though and it averages out to a few degrees colder per day. Like our average high is only 2F less than ORH's, but our average low is like 6F colder, so the daily temp comes out 4F lower.The elevated terrain in SNE (primarily the ORH hills north and the East Slope) has highs that are usually not all that much different than then mountain valleys up north provided some frontal boundary isn't draped over the area. Even though the elevations can be comparable within a couple hundred feet, there's a difference between that elevation in a valley vs that elevation on a ridge top. We get air moving down mountain slopes and warming/drying (ie we have one of the lowest dew points most afternoons) in the daytime...and then radiate quickly at night. Whereas you guys in SNE at elevation see much lower diurnal trends, but the high temps aren't all that different on the whole from the mountain valleys up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 I think you match us for high temps more than you think, at least down in the village/MVL elevation (700-800ft). We then destroy you at night for lows though and it averages out to a few degrees colder per day. Like our average high is only 2F less than ORH's, but our average low is like 6F colder, so the daily temp comes out 4F lower. The elevated terrain in SNE (primarily the ORH hills north and the East Slope) has highs that are usually not all that much different than then mountain valleys up north provided some frontal boundary isn't draped over the area. Even though the elevations can be comparable within a couple hundred feet, there's a difference between that elevation in a valley vs that elevation on a ridge top. We get air moving down mountain slopes and warming/drying (ie we have one of the lowest dew points most afternoons) in the daytime...and then radiate quickly at night. Whereas you guys in SNE at elevation see much lower diurnal trends, but the high temps aren't all that different on the whole. I didn't realize that the highs were as close as they are. I think my overnight lows are warmer than most of SNE (only somewhat fecetious) making my diurnal range remarkably small relative to many areas. 52.3/32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 I didn't realize that the highs were as close as they are. I think my overnight lows are warmer than most of SNE (only somewhat fecetious) making my diurnal range remarkably small relative to many areas. 52.3/32 For contrast, the high at the base of the ski area at 1600ft station was 49.8F today, vs the 55F down in town at 730ft. High at the summit was 38F...fits with the usual 10F reduction from base area to summit and 15F from town to summit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 18z gfs looking a bit chillier so far through 150, you could thank the weaker great lakes low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 even though this is for next sunday and ill be a lucky to see a few flaqkes its nice to see A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 53. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Flakes mentioned twice in the AFD. 56.4F for my high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 18z gfs looking a bit chillier so far through 150, you could thank the weaker great lakes low Yeah--the weak system tucks a little closer, too. even though this is for next sunday and ill be a lucky to see a few flaqkes its nice to see A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 53. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Flakes mentioned twice in the AFD. 56.4F for my high Flakes are always so welcome. I'll take it seriously when the mentions are still there 24 hours out. I'll be in NY Wed/Thursday so nothing coming for me then. 49.2/33 off a high of 54.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 From BTV...the forecast temps for next weekend aren't that far from normal. Even the coldest period they are forecasting -10 on the highs (low-mid 40s) but lows in the lower 30s which are climo average. " Below normal temperatures are expected for much of the extended period with highs mainly in the 40s with 30s in the mountains. Lows will generally range from the middle 20s to middle 30s. Temperatures warm a bit back to seasonable levels next weekend. && " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 From BTV...the forecast temps for next weekend aren't that far from normal. Even the coldest period they are forecasting -10 on the highs (low-mid 40s) but lows in the lower 30s which are climo average. " Below normal temperatures are expected for much of the extended period with highs mainly in the 40s with 30s in the mountains. Lows will generally range from the middle 20s to middle 30s. Temperatures warm a bit back to seasonable levels next weekend. && " -10 highs are pretty big departures. It's the mirror image of the summer torch we had this year with meh daytime heat and mild overnights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 I like that low temp in Union, CT (45.5). That station had a high of 60.8 today--what a plummet with sunset! 48.8/32 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 22C over Tx @ 850mb and -16c over the Dakotas. That's quite the temperature contrast @ 204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 EDIT: had runs backwards, cold next week after brief warm up and cutter, but not as cold as 12z was it would seem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 PF doing his best to meh -10 departure for highs. First shot is cold second shot is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 STILLHIGH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER RUNFROM RUN SINCE THEY ARE STRUGGLING ON HOW MUCH THE WAVE WILLAMPLIFY. THE NAM IS WAY OUT TO LUNCH SO NEVER CONSIDERED IT. Gotta love the BOX AFD. Poor old NAM. Speaking of the NAM, where is that fantastic poem about it that showed up before the February snowstorm? I gotta find that and put it on my wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Oh, that is the disco about the costal this week. I'm all for a snowy SNEWC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Nevertheless, it seems we are below normal for the next couple weeks on that run with brief warm ups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 -10 highs are pretty big departures. It's the mirror image of the summer torch we had this year with meh daytime heat and mild overnights. Yeah exactly...I mean -10 is solid but if overnight lows can't drop under cloudy cyclonic upsloping flow, we may cannibalize the overall departures. I think it was Zucker that mentioned it last night about how there is a large area of sub-freezing 850 air, but the thermal gradient isn't that sharp (ie -3C in CT but only -4C up here, rather than like -10C) and may lead to SNE and northern mid-Atlantic having the coldest departures relative to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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