HoarfrostHubb Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 DT blowing the cold tradition horn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 GEFS keep it chilly through the forecast period ending around 11/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Euro says what coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Snow on 10/24 is much more anomalous vs 10/30-31 ala 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Euro says what coastal Red flags galore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Red flags galore lol, Glad this is not Jan and staring at bare ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Snow on 10/24 is much more anomalous vs 10/30-31 ala 2011. The 28th through the 1st is very much in play for something significant to develop, arctic cold core with tropical inflow. that is a totally impressive anomalous air mass the end of next week, holy heck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 The 28th through the 1st is very much in play for something significant to develop, arctic cold core with tropical inflow. that is a totally impressive anomalous air mass the end of next week, holy heck. I don't have norms for the Pit, but it's nice to see the forecasted 20's for lows and highs in the low 40's for late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 It might get a little cold next week...time to start seeing what the NWS offices are thinking for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 the euro ens mean shows temps returning to normal by the 29th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 One thing to take away from the 12z runs, a few more GFS ensembles did jump on board the 10/24 storm. 06z GFS op had the storm, but with zero support from the ensembles. 12z ensembles on the other hand have 6 members that develop the coastal low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 I don't have norms for the Pit, but it's nice to see the forecasted 20's for lows and highs in the low 40's for late week. BTV is going with slightly above normal early in the week, trending to below normal late week. Forecast has temps not getting below freezing below 1000ft until maybe Friday night. Lots of highs in the low to mid 40s and lows in the mid 30s....low diurnal range stuff with clouds and wind present. "Temperatures slightly above normal on Tuesday with highs mainly in the 50s. Below normal readings expected for the rest of the period with highs mainly in the 40s with 30s in the mountains. Lows will generally range from the middle 20s to middle 30s. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 850 Euro Ens for NYC Date Minimum Mean Maximum Std. Derivation 19.10.2013 00 GMT 4.0 °C ± 0.4 °C 20.10.2013 00 GMT 6.3 °C ± 0.8 °C 21.10.2013 00 GMT 1.1 °C ± 0.3 °C 22.10.2013 00 GMT 6.6 °C ± 1.1 °C 23.10.2013 00 GMT 4.5 °C ± 1.6 °C 24.10.2013 00 GMT 1.1 °C ± 2.9 °C 25.10.2013 00 GMT -2.8 °C ± 0.9 °C 26.10.2013 00 GMT -3.3 °C ± 1.2 °C 27.10.2013 00 GMT -3.2 °C ± 2.5 °C 28.10.2013 00 GMT -0.4 °C ± 3.9 °C 29.10.2013 00 GMT 1.6 °C ± 4.9 °C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 very smoothed out and doubtfulI could see it relaxing for a period around that time or maybe afterwards in early November. We'll have to watch as we get out a little further in time but I wouldn't be so quick as to write off a period of moderating temps in early November.I mean Forky just said returning to normal...so that's not like a torch or anything. I highly doubt we stay below normal straight out into mid Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 I could see it relaxing for a period around that time or maybe afterwards in early November. We'll have to watch as we get out a little further in time but I wouldn't be so quick as to write off a period of moderating temps in early November. Not seeing any breakdown in modeling of the ridge/trough GEFS are solid in keeping status quo through 11/4 W Euro ens through day ten maintain the ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Not seeing any breakdown in modeling of the ridge/trough GEFS are solid in keeping status quo through 11/4 W Euro ens through day ten maintain the ridge Anyone know what average H85 temps are for early November? I'm not necessarily saying warm-up or breakdown of pattern, just that it might end up near normal around that time frame rather than solidly below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Anyone know what average H85 temps are for early November? I'm not necessarily saying warm-up or breakdown of pattern, just that it might end up near normal around that time frame rather than solidly below. +4 for me +2 , today was normal on the button, +4 850's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 A very slim chance methinks. But lots of fun to ready this from BOX anyway. NWS Forecast for: 2 Miles NNE Shelburne MA Issued by: National Weather Service Taunton, MALast Update: 4:29 pm EDT Oct 19, 2013 Tuesday: A chance of showers, mainly between 9am and 1pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. Chance of precipitation is 30%.Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.Wednesday: A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 30%.Wednesday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 40%.Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 46.Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 30.Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45.Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 28.Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. 54.3/40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Anyone know what average H85 temps are for early November? I'm not necessarily saying warm-up or breakdown of pattern, just that it might end up near normal around that time frame rather than solidly below. For 11/1, the avg 850 temp along the pike is about +5...+7 down around NYC and about +2 up in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 For 11/1, the avg 850 temp along the pike is about +5...+7 down around NYC and about +2 up in your area. A winter month....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 +4 for me +2 , today was normal on the button, +4 850's That's interesting...looks about normal 850s here but surface temps were warm. we were +8 on the high and +6 on the low temps. The all-out torch continues and makes the July departures look silly at this point. BTV up to a comical +7.5 on the month so far. The unmitigated torch continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 For 11/1, the avg 850 temp along the pike is about +5...+7 down around NYC and about +2 up in your area. Cool thanks. I never know where to find upper level climo stats. I was figuring we had to be getting close to averaging 0C at H85. Hopefully that cold translates to the surface nicely in the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Meh, the snow was and still is a long shot. The excitement yesterday was centered on the modeling depictions in themselves, not the deterministic value. I warned of this myself that we would need a few more cycles to get this inside of the caveat emptor ("buyer beware..") time range with the Euro. Having said that, I am noticing that more GFS ensemble members actually drifted toward coastal low formation on this 12z cycle. This is still transition season, and most models ...even the all-mighty Euro are allow hiccup runs in the spring and fall while they go through growing pains (so to speak...) For now we should just be impressed with a cold pattern and let it ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Cool thanks. I never know where to find upper level climo stats. I was figuring we had to be getting close to averaging 0C at H85. Hopefully that cold translates to the surface nicely in the next week. By 11/10, the average there is a bit below 0C at 850...and down to about +2 along the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Wet the ground tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 For 11/1, the avg 850 temp along the pike is about +5...+7 down around NYC and about +2 up in your area. Where do you find that out from? Website? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 850 Euro Ens for NYC Date Minimum Mean Maximum Std. Derivation 19.10.2013 00 GMT 4.0 °C ± 0.4 °C 20.10.2013 00 GMT 6.3 °C ± 0.8 °C 21.10.2013 00 GMT 1.1 °C ± 0.3 °C 22.10.2013 00 GMT 6.6 °C ± 1.1 °C 23.10.2013 00 GMT 4.5 °C ± 1.6 °C 24.10.2013 00 GMT 1.1 °C ± 2.9 °C 25.10.2013 00 GMT -2.8 °C ± 0.9 °C 26.10.2013 00 GMT -3.3 °C ± 1.2 °C 27.10.2013 00 GMT -3.2 °C ± 2.5 °C 28.10.2013 00 GMT -0.4 °C ± 3.9 °C 29.10.2013 00 GMT 1.6 °C ± 4.9 °C These 850s are probably 8-9C below average, but it's not that impressive given you have to expect one major cold shot with the coming of fall. After all, the first freeze for Dobbs Ferry (50% chance of reaching 32F by that date) is 10/25, and you generally need 850s of at least -2C to bring temperatures that cold to an area that doesn't radiate ideally due to hilly topography and proximity to a major urban heat island. NYC probably doesn't get below 40F if 850s are only -3C, and the gradient isn't that steep so Northern New England doesn't even get into the -10C 850s as we saw during the 10/29/11 snowstorm. NWS forecasts have low temperatures in Westchester in the upper 30s during the cold shot; they will probably make those numbers colder, but they aren't expecting anything anomalous. As it looks right now, this is basically climo: a cold snap sparked by a frontal passage with rain showers (not a snow-producing Nor'easter, which the models have been trending away from) at the end of October that brings a quick, light freeze to outlying suburbs of NYC with minimum temperatures in the City ranging from 38F-42F. And this will hardly have any effect on the elephant in the room: the insane positive monthly departures. NYC is currently +6.4 for October, and BTV is +7.5. I don't think any stations in the Northeast are cooler than +4. The cold snap might bring us down some, still leaving most at risk for a Top 10 warmest October. We'd need a much more extreme cold shot to erase a lot of these departures, and I'm not seeing that. Remember, as recently as 2009, NYC had highs in the mid 40s on October 16th, with elevated suburbs seeing catpaws and temperatures remaining in the 30s! A few days of 55/30 when already nearing Halloween is nothing. Not seeing any breakdown in modeling of the ridge/trough GEFS are solid in keeping status quo through 11/4 W Euro ens through day ten maintain the ridge I think we'll stay a bit cooler than normal with the western ridge, but I'm not seeing the big arctic connection. There's a pool of below normal heights showing up near Northern Greenland and the North Pole, and I think the +AO/-EPO is actually causing the coldest air to plunge eastward and southeastward, instead of directly south into the United States. Thus, the bulk of the brutal cold moves towards Northern Greenland where surface temps are as cold as -32C, or about -8C, and modified cold breaks off this cold pool and moves towards us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Tubes its 8-11days of BN. Radiant nights will be in the 20s and record low high maxes are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Tubes its 8-11days of BN. Radiant nights will be in the 20s and record low high maxes are possible. BOX references records in their AFD but suspect they will not be broken. To be sure, one does not need a record to be cold! RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS IN THE REGION AT THIS TIME OF YEAR RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S /EXCEPT MID 30S TO LOW 40S AT WORCESTER AIRPORT/...SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THESE LEVELS BUT PROBABLY REMAINING ABOVE THEM. -- End Changed Discussion -- BOX has also pulled snow from the p/c and AFD, but they keep mention of it in the AFD. Regardless, I'll be in NYC so I'll have to rely on reports here or what my wife reports since Chris and I are the only folks out here these days. Lastly, BOX repoorts my growing season as having ended so won't be posting any more freeze/frost advisories. Top wind reading so far of 17mph. Significantly off. I should really be able to leverage an unsighly anemometer siting in exchange for my wife's pool. 43.7/36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 NAM says 'stop those snow dreams'. Not much in the way of rain for that matter either. 49.8/36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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