weathafella Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 As OK powdah just said in general discussion recurving typhoon #2 may unleash arctic air end of month. Ice on Charles for turkey day ...lalala lock it (jk) I do remember skim ice on the Charles the day after Thanksgiving one year....early 2000s... A cold thanksgiving particularly a snowy one presages many a great winter. It's less of a long shot this year when thanksgiving is the latest it possibly could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Upslope spots definitely look favorable for snow behind the system regardless. The system itself though won't produce much snow anywhere though if it ends up as a weaker anafrontal wave. Yeah, I don't expect much more then a cold rain with maybe some mangled flakes mixed in right now unless the models are underplaying the air mass or this system trends stronger, GFS got it to 984mb but the Euro is pretty weak, LES machine looks to get going to not that it has much effect here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Looks like 12Z GFS continues the theme from 06z albeit weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Looks like 12Z GFS continues the theme from 06z Strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Looks like 12Z GFS continues the theme from 06z albeit weaker 12Z is faster with it and has 540 further west. Time will tell this is still 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Strength 996mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Looks like 12Z GFS continues the theme from 06z albeit weaker Then what was the theme, we need this robust or its crap, but ya we got time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Then what was the theme, we need this robust or its crap, but ya we got time Showing the coastal but 12z is weaker then 06 z by 4mb, We need a stronger system, It gets going to late this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Showing the coastal but 12z is weaker then 06 z by 4mb, We need a stronger system, It gets going to late this run It doesn't fully phase in the northern stream so you have a low to your north advecting in milder air....not a pretty situation for a late October snowfall. You need that to consolidate into a stronger coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 It doesn't fully phase in the northern stream so you have a low to your north advecting in milder air....not a pretty situation for a late October snowfall. You need that to consolidate into a stronger coastal. Yes, Need to get the secondary cranking to draw down the colder air into the system, More like what the 12z ukie had yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 It doesn't fully phase in the northern stream so you have a low to your north advecting in milder air....not a pretty situation for a late October snowfall. You need that to consolidate into a stronger coastal. To hell w the gfs anyway, waiting for the king lol Too bad we couldnt get a tropical connection into some deep cold around for a hallloweenie storm bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Then what was the theme, we need this robust or its crap, but ya we got time Maybe I'll get a glimpse of white tomorrow morning up on the mountain if the clouds clear... I still think Mansfield waits till later this week to whiten. .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 358 AM EDT SATURDAY...CONTINUING FORECAST TREND OF SHIFTING PRECIP THRU AREA OVERNGT AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO SC QUEBEC. TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY LOOKING FOR BULK OF PRECIP TO CLR CWA W/ SCT -RW FROM WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND SYSTEM. WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME LK ONTARIO -RW PLUME FOR A FEW HRS ENHANCING REMAINING -RW IN DACKS. COLDER SFC AIR WRAPPING THIS LOW WILL BE ENOUGH AT 2000FT AND HIGHER TO ALLOW FOR -SW TO MIX IN BFR ENDING. HIR ELEV WILL SEE LIGHT COATING. OVERALL HIGHS FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE ABV NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES AS WAA ON SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW WARM UP. Tonight: Rain showers likely before 5am, then rain likely, possibly mixed with snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 36. Windy, with a south wind 26 to 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Sunday: A chance of rain and snow showers, mainly between 9am and 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 37. Windy, with a west wind 28 to 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 To hell w the gfs anyway, waiting for the king lol Too bad we couldnt get a tropical connection into some deep cold around for a hallloweenie storm bomb Models starting to hit that time period hard with a strong system, But this far out it could be up the coast or cut thru Western NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaxSki Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Sounds interesting for the Southern Greens. Looking to get an earlier Start to the Ski Season then in the past few years. 2002-2003 was wall to wall with deep snow at X-Mas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Ski areas at any rate with the colder air mass in place, And the upslope snows, Should be able to run the guns nonstop for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 It doesn't fully phase in the northern stream so you have a low to your north advecting in milder air....not a pretty situation for a late October snowfall. You need that to consolidate into a stronger coastal. Socks subbing for Scooter with the caution flags flying. So much can go wrong with systems 5 days out in January. Move it to October and well........don't get your hopes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 It doesn't fully phase in the northern stream so you have a low to your north advecting in milder air....not a pretty situation for a late October snowfall. You need that to consolidate into a stronger coastal. Not sure what you mean by advecting in milder air, unless you mean mild air being advected in from the SW in front of the low but that's how frontal systems work. I get what you're saying about the phasing though. Regardless, many shouldn't get their hopes up this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Not sure what you mean by advecting in milder air, unless you mean mild air being advected in from the SW in front of the low but that's how frontal systems work. I get what you're saying about the phasing though. Regardless, many shouldn't get their hopes up this far out. Pretty tough to get gung ho about a system in Oct, Its nice to see but a lot of things need to fall into place for snow this early, Heck, Even in Dec-Jan you can have issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Not sure what you mean by advecting in milder air, unless you mean mild air being advected in from the SW in front of the low but that's how frontal systems work. I get what you're saying about the phasing though. Regardless, many shouldn't get their hopes up this far out. We are currently between the praying and hoping stages (for snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Ski areas at any rate with the colder air mass in place, And the upslope snows, Should be able to run the guns nonstop for the most part Yeah there should be a good 48 hour period of snowmaking, or at least several nights in a row. I'm still skeptical of how cold it gets below summit level for snowmaking (ie. for the most part you need 28F or lower) for a prolonged period of time (I could see like 2,000ft sitting in the low/mid 30s)... but at least the upper mountain should be able to run pretty steadily for a period there late next week into the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Yeah there should be a good 48 hour period of snowmaking, or at least several nights in a row. I'm still skeptical of how cold it gets below summit level for snowmaking (ie. for the most part you need 28F or lower) for a prolonged period of time (I could see like 2,000ft sitting in the low/mid 30s)... but at least the upper mountain should be able to run pretty steadily for a period there late next week into the weekend. Should be able to stack it up at the summit and just below it.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Should be able to stack it up at the summit and just below it.........lol I think you will be making snow lower than 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Should be able to stack it up at the summit and just below it.........lol lol... yeah one of those situations where you can bury a select portion of the mountain and yet not do anything below that level. If we start tickling -10C H85s though, then its probably game on top to bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 I think you will be making snow lower than 3k I'm quite sure, The question that has to be answer is how low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 I think you will be making snow lower than 3k Yeah, I've got 2,500ft+ right now but it'll depend on what the nights do. A lot of time there's that mid-elevation warm layer at night in the vicinity of the base area and just above that stops snowmaking this time of year... ie. 25F summit, 35F base (1500ft), 28F village (800ft). What'll happen is the wind will stay up and lead to dry adiabatic lapes rates from base to summit, then the inversion sits around 1,000-1,200ft and below that it gets quite cold in town. Just watch, I bet we'll have a few days with that type of spread overnight with the warmest layer being like 1,200-2,200ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 lol... yeah one of those situations where you can bury a select portion of the mountain and yet not do anything below that level. If we start tickling -10C H85s though, then its probably game on top to bottom. Not out of the realm of possibility once our system moves by next week on the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Yeah there should be a good 48 hour period of snowmaking, or at least several nights in a row. I'm still skeptical of how cold it gets below summit level for snowmaking (ie. for the most part you need 28F or lower) for a prolonged period of time (I could see like 2,000ft sitting in the low/mid 30s)... but at least the upper mountain should be able to run pretty steadily for a period there late next week into the weekend. I'm always cautious wrt the cold shots underperforming. The past few winters seem to feature the models overdoing the medium/long range cold only to watch modeled forecasts moderate once inside 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 I'm always cautious wrt the cold shots underperforming. The past few winters seem to feature the models overdoing the medium/long range cold only to watch modeled forecasts moderate once inside 3 days. I agree, but I also have a theory on this. I think the run of the mill ones--blast (or stretch) of BN--are not truly notable, but play out as anticipated. The real significant blasts do tend to get muted as extremes by definition tend not to happen. That's a saw that cuts both ways in that summer torches frequently fail to hit expectations. (They seem to perhaps because so many of us clamor for winter and shun the heat). My two cents. 60.1/43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Whether it snows are not ... we got us a real nice definite transition season this time. Not a lot of signs for protracted warmth that hold leaves on the trees through Halloween and puts November and December into a low confidence mode. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1159 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013VALID 12Z TUE OCT 22 2013 - 12Z SAT OCT 26 2013...OVERVIEW AND PREFERENCES...AN AMPLIFIED HEIGHT PATTERN WITH HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE WEST ANDLOW HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST WILL DOMINATE THE MEDIUM RANGEALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.AN UPPER CUTOFF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MOVE EASTWARDAND MAY PUSH ACROSS THE WEST COAST ALSO TOWARD THE END OF THEFORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEOVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE OPERATIONAL RUNS IN TERMS OFSHORTWAVE DETAILS. FOR NOW...THE 06Z GFS TRENDED TOWARD THE 00ZECMWF AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE 00Z UKMET IN DEVELOPING A DIVINGSHORT WAVE INTO AT LEAST A MODEST WESTERN ATLANTIC CYCLONEALTHOUGH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW LITTLE SUPPORT FOR SUCH ADEVELOPMENT ON DAYS 4 AND 5. LOOKING AT A SCATTER PLOT OFENSEMBLE CYCLONE LOCATIONS DOES SHOW SOME MODEST SUPPORT FOR SUCHA DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITIES FOR THIS SOLUTIONREMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE EVEN THOUGH THE MANUAL GRAPHICS SHOW AFAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE OFF NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 5. THE 12Z RUNSCOULD GO EITHER WAY AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THISSYSTEM FARTHER EAST AND PERHAPS WEAKER. THIS DISCUSSION ISRELEASED BEFORE MOST NEW 12Z GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE. DID HAVE ACHANCE TO GLANCE AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH DAY 4 AND IT IS FASTER ANDNOT QUITE AS DEEP AS THE 06Z RUN. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS IT WOULDGENERATE A WEAKER CYCLONE.ACROSS THE PACIFIC...A CUTOFF LOW BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA HASSUPPORT TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE IN THE NW AND MAY PUSH INTOCALIFORNIA LATE IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINSSIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AND EVEN THEENSEMBLE MEANS ESPECIALLY BY DAY 5. WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINSCLOSER TO ITS MEAN...THE RECENT 06Z GFS IS EVEN SLOWER THAN ITSENSEMBLE MEAN...ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCES ARE LARGER.LATE IN THE FORECAST...UNRESOLVED SHORTWAVE DETAILS WITHIN THEMEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERNPLAINS RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BY DAY 7. WHILELATEST OPERATIONAL GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS SHOW LOW PRESSURE/COLDFRONT DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...THE ECMWF HAS NOSUCH SOLUTION. A MODEST COLD FRONT IS DEPICTED AS A COMPROMISESOLUTION SINCE IT HAS SOME SLIGHT SUPPORT FROM CYCLONE SCATTERPLOTS....SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...IN THE EAST... THE BROAD AND RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH SHOULD KEEPTEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST ANDTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE POLAR FRONT LIKELY CLEARING MOST IFNOT ALL OF FLORIDA. DETAILS FOR THE NORTHEAST AND ESPECIALLYEASTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE STILL FUZZY WITH THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWFINDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL RAIN AND SOME INLANDSNOW...BUT RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE. NEAR THE LAKES... -6C TO-9C AIR AT 850MB ATOP LAKE TEMPS OF 9-18C SPELLS AT LEAST A MODESTLAKE PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY... AND SOMEACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS DOWNWIND OF THELAKES FOR THE FIRST POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF THE SEASON. INTHE WEST... APPROACHING UPPER LOW SHOULD SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATIONALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FROM SAN FRANCISCO NORTHWARDWITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE... DEPENDING ONTHE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE UPPER LOW.KOCIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Whether it snows are not ... we got us a real nice definite transition season this time. Not a lot of signs for protracted warmth that hold leaves on the trees through Halloween and puts November and December into a low confidence mode. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1159 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013 VALID 12Z TUE OCT 22 2013 - 12Z SAT OCT 26 2013 ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... IN THE EAST... THE BROAD AND RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST AND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE POLAR FRONT LIKELY CLEARING MOST IF NOT ALL OF FLORIDA. DETAILS FOR THE NORTHEAST AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE STILL FUZZY WITH THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL RAIN AND SOME INLAND SNOW...BUT RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE. NEAR THE LAKES... -6C TO -9C AIR AT 850MB ATOP LAKE TEMPS OF 9-18C SPELLS AT LEAST A MODEST LAKE PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY... AND SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES FOR THE FIRST POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF THE SEASON. IN KOCIN Congrats Calais. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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