Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Yup .... "congrats dendrite" looking like a viable sentence. I don't kid when the congrats dendrite comes out its for a reason. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Yes it has, Quick hitter Hate that it'll likely be coming when I'm in NYC (Wed/Thur). Even when it's a rain event, I prefer to be at home than on the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 I don't kid when the congrats dendrite comes out its for a reason. LOL Think it's time to get out the snowshoes ...the Whites may very well be white next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Think it's time to get out the snowshoes ...the Whites may very well be white next weekend. Lollis to 12 in the whites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Hate that it'll likely be coming when I'm in NYC (Wed/Thur). Even when it's a rain event, I prefer to be at home than on the road. GFS is slower but details this far out still need to be worked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Positive for lower elevations too.. a storm would be nice. We haven't had much interesting wx at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 One of the storms where you dream for a little, think maybe just maybe if a high is here and the cold air can work to me, then look at the date and crash back to earth quicker than a skydiver without a parachute. Remember how much it took for the Oct bomb in 2011 to come together? All of the talk about how rare it was etc; now realize for it to happen again it would be twice in two years. Not likely lol. NNE guys might be in a different boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Yes excellent analysis, models want to break the ridge down and some have pointed to that but until the equilibrium is highly disturbed, status quo. It does break down a bit. You can see what happens when there are no recurves. My issue is what happens more from December on. I'm not so sure on a very + AO and low AK area heights like some are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 The Euro seems to always run warm on surface temp reflections, last years Blizzard had me in the mid 30s and we verified at the same time at 25. but in this case people without elevation its a colder rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 It does break down a bit. You can see what happens when there are no recurves. My issue is what happens more from December on. I'm not so sure on a very + AO and low AK area heights like some are. Yea I agree Scott, but even look at the end of the GFS run, that is a positive AO but its magnitude and positioning of the PV is such that we are in a great position for cold storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 LOL shaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 An auspicious start... Congrats SnowNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Yea I agree Scott, but even look at the end of the GFS run, that is a positive AO but its magnitude and positioning of the PV is such that we are in a great position for cold storminess. That's also because of the higher heights in AK too. If that happens then we can get a configuration like that. Gonna be a fun 2-3 weeks anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 2-5" here on that chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 BOX going with pattern change in AFD. No mention of frozen Cold waiting to pour in though. BSE finally ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 The Euro seems to always run warm on surface temp reflections, last years Blizzard had me in the mid 30s and we verified at the same time at 25. but in this case people without elevation its a colder rain Fine with me. Still more than half leaf cover here. Two inches or more of paste would bring more than just scattered power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Its not a very cold system on the Euro or GFS...most would get rain. For now, its obvious we will go to a much colder pattern for the final week of the month. As for the storm, the Euro ensembles are actually a little less supportive at the moment than they were yesterday at 12z. Its more of a weaker anafrontal wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Its not a very cold system on the Euro or GFS...most would get rain. For now, its obvious we will go to a much colder pattern for the final week of the month. As for the storm, the Euro ensembles are actually a little less supportive at the moment than they were yesterday at 12z. Its more of a weaker anafrontal wave. I would think snh monads could be ok for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 I would think snh monads could be ok for snow Yeah as of now, only the highest spots would get anything and probably with some latitude too. OBvously still a long ways out for any detail...as mentioned before, the Euro ensembles were more of a weak anafrontal wave than anything. So its possible there's very little snow at all anywhere outside of maybe upstate NY and NNE moutains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Higher elevations foothills and mountains look to be into snow one way or the other with some up sloping as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Better than staring at the thunderstorm free Atlantic. Considering this the the first whiff of an interesting event in like two weeks up here, I'm somewhat surprised by the lack of a thread on this storm. I love that purple bulls-eye right on top of NCentral MA on the GFS snow chart. Bring it on!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Higher elevations foothills and mountains look to be into snow one way or the other with some up sloping as well Upslope spots definitely look favorable for snow behind the system regardless. The system itself though won't produce much snow anywhere though if it ends up as a weaker anafrontal wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 The 10/24 threat is far from dead, As long as we have one model run per day showing it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 The 10/24 threat is far from dead, As long as we have one model run per day showing it lol. I'm sure we'll break out the DGEX at some point. A little too much of a scraper last run...all eyes on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 I'm sure we'll break out the DGEX at some point. A little too much of a scraper last run...all eyes on the 18z run. JMA doesn't have it. No dice. Storm cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Jay peak (N greens) will be winners either way. We can all act like were not jealous of two feet at the picnic tables Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=wbg Not bad about 990 just N of bench mark thur am. Wed nite could be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Yes excellent analysis, models want to break the ridge down and some have pointed to that but until the equilibrium is highly disturbed, status quo. Let's belly to belly! 2002 is walking through the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Let's belly to belly! 2002 is walking through the door. As OK powdah just said in general discussion recurving typhoon #2 may unleash arctic air end of month. Ice on Charles for turkey day ...lalala lock it (jk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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