Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

[merrychristmas]

Wunderground Euro snowfall map at 156 hrs shows and inch or 2 over central and western MA, couple spots in far northern CT and southern VT and NH (there's actually some before and after that hour but the Wunderground maps skip frames that late in the run)

I'd post it but it won't let me save the image by right clicking and I am otherwise computer illiterate

I was going to mention about that and just realised that that is what I just did. Anything you want to save, you can, no matter what it is. All you have to do is screen capture, paste the image and save it. Then what I do is upload  it to panoramio and share the jpg link. So it can always be done if you put a little bit of time into it.

[Collinsville]

It's snowed here 8 times since 2000 if you count just flakes in the air.

 

Measurable snows at ORH in October were 2000 (10/30), 2002 (10/23), 2003 (10/23), 2009 (10/15-16 and 10/18), and 2011 (10/27 and 10/29-30). In addition to those years, 2005, 2008, and 2010 had a trace of snow. 2005 had measurable in BOS amazingly but not at ORH. The 2010 snow was just brief flurries on the night of 10/23, the 2008 snow was on the tail end of a bomb coastal on 10/28 that dumped heavy snow in the catskills and Poconos and even down to low elevations in parts of N NJ...we changed to snow for about an hour later that evening, but only briefly whitened the mulchy areas. Then in 2005, we had that bizarred cutoff that brought some ehanced omega over E MA and it snowed heavily for a couple hours while back this way we only had a rain/snow mix...and wasn't able to precipitate hard enough. BOS had 1.1" while some nearby areas had upward of 2-3". Also in 2005, we had a second instance of a trace of snow. It was on the back end of another coastal that buried the northern mountains in snow (Whites and Greens)...we flipped to snow late that night but didnt accumulate. I think it was maybe 10/25/05.

 

 

In contrast, in the 1990s, ORH saw a trace of snow just one time in October (1993) and zero measurable events. Though 1992 had a trace of snow on 9/30, so that should be noted. Earliest trace of snow on record at ORH.

 

I just counted 10 times here since 2000. 4 measurable (29/2000, 23/2003, 15/2009, 29/2011) traces (10/2000, 19/2003, 29/2006, 28/2008, 18/2009, 27/2011)

[merrychristmas]

I am watching the 18Z run unfold and 28th onward is looking REALLY interesting. That trough looks angry with cold, as it looks ready to dive at us from the Arctic!

[powderfreak]

Up here Oct flakes seem more likely than not since 2000. BTV has had a trace or more in 11 years since 2000, and 6 years have had measurable. Only October 2007 and 2004 did not have a trace at BTV.

During the 1990s, it looks like a trace or more fell 9 times, with only October 1994 not seeing snow. So no real change between decades.

Going off JSpin's data for lower elevations (500ft) but near the Spine of the Greens, there's been measurable October snow in 5 of the last 7 years.

[merrychristmas]

Can't see it on mobile ...

Oh that explains it

[merrychristmas]

These forums seem so much more advanced, user friendly, and trafficed than where I was before. too bad I did not find this place before now as I wasted my time discussing the Eastern trough at Accu where noone goes anymore. Glad to see people are lively here.

[weathafella]

Where is Kevin? Did it's something?

[powderfreak]

Where is Kevin? Did it's something?

The usual self-imposed break after folks critique his posting style. Usually following a discussion about forum moderation and starting with posts that get deleted.

[Ginx snewx]

Who is Kevin? Kevin Frankish from Breakfast television?

wxhype , been here since day 1 and a fixture who some have issues with, long story but read back in this thread. Keeps the joint lively if nothing else.

[dendrite]

Not a banter thread guys.

[Ginx snewx]

Not a banter thread guys.

please move , congrats Dendrite by the way

[N. OF PIKE]

So dentrite or anyone else, what is the maximum potential this SW would have if it could actually amplify. I mean what can we "hope" to see models trend to strength of any SLP feature near SNE (or wherever) circa the 24'th

[Typhoon Tip]

It's snowed here 8 times since 2000 if you count just flakes in the air.

 

Measurable snows at ORH in October were 2000 (10/30), 2002 (10/23), 2003 (10/23), 2009 (10/15-16 and 10/18), and 2011 (10/27 and 10/29-30). In addition to those years, 2005, 2008, and 2010 had a trace of snow. 2005 had measurable in BOS amazingly but not at ORH. The 2010 snow was just brief flurries on the night of 10/23, the 2008 snow was on the tail end of a bomb coastal on 10/28 that dumped heavy snow in the catskills and Poconos and even down to low elevations in parts of N NJ...we changed to snow for about an hour later that evening, but only briefly whitened the mulchy areas. Then in 2005, we had that bizarred cutoff that brought some ehanced omega over E MA and it snowed heavily for a couple hours while back this way we only had a rain/snow mix...and wasn't able to precipitate hard enough. BOS had 1.1" while some nearby areas had upward of 2-3". Also in 2005, we had a second instance of a trace of snow. It was on the back end of another coastal that buried the northern mountains in snow (Whites and Greens)...we flipped to snow late that night but didnt accumulate. I think it was maybe 10/25/05.

 

 

In contrast, in the 1990s, ORH saw a trace of snow just one time in October (1993) and zero measurable events. Though 1992 had a trace of snow on 9/30, so that should be noted. Earliest trace of snow on record at ORH.

 

Good stuff, Will.   I confirms my thinking about the big uptick in frequency since 2000.  I bet also if we extend the analysis back into the 1980s, we may find a similar relative comparison; 1987 obvious leaps out, but any others...  

 

It's hard to assume this to be a sign, as a 10 or 12 year sample set is still relatively small.  But it is also hard to ignore, just the same.  Of equal fascination, per my own correlation efforts I am finding almost no skill for using that for DJF ...Novies too.  So the exact significance is also difficult to ascertain.  Nonetheless, should October be a winter month for us.... as absurd as that question would seem in 1999, now it's an interesting question.  If we get to 2020 and have a few more added, it's worth the question, if not already.  Fascinating.

[ORH_wxman]

I just counted 10 times here since 2000. 4 measurable (29/2000, 23/2003, 15/2009, 29/2011) traces (10/2000, 19/2003, 29/2006, 28/2008, 18/2009, 27/2011)

 

 

I didn't count twice for the same month...if I did I would have counted 2005, 2009, and 2011 twice and I would have come up with 11 times.

 

edit: 10/10/00 also had a trace in ORH, so that would be 12 times.

[ORH_wxman]

Good stuff, Will.   I confirms my thinking about the big uptick in frequency since 2000.  I bet also if we extend the analysis back into the 1980s, we may find a similar relative comparison; 1987 obvious leaps out, but any others...  

 

It's hard to assume this to be a sign, as a 10 or 12 year sample set is still relatively small.  But it is also hard to ignore, just the same.  Of equal fascination, per my own correlation efforts I am finding almost no skill for using that for DJF ...Novies too.  So the exact significance is also difficult to ascertain.  Nonetheless, should October be a winter month for us.... as absurd as that question would seem in 1999, now it's an interesting question.  If we get to 2020 and have a few more added, it's worth the question, if not already.  Fascinating.

 

 

Strangely 1980s are mostly void of snow in October. 1988 and 1987 had back to back but otherwise pretty weak. You have to go back to the 1960-1972 period to get a similar stretch of October snow...though obviously the huge bomb of 2011 was not matched.

[Typhoon Tip]

Somebody posted (forky?) that 850s would not be translated down and the air would be modified due to lack of snow. Will be an interesting test of that theory. From Ryan Maue

 

I say yes it would snow, and at this range ... machine computation for snow would probably not reflect the physicality of a heavy precip burst falling through a -3 or -4C at that level.  

 

Having a snow pack would certainly help.  But it is not a deal breaker, either.  This kind of reminds me of that other falsity regarding having a couple days of sun warming the Earth, effecting accumulation; it's of that same ilk.  If it snows heavy, icy water has a remarkable efficiency for sucking heat off the topsoil and allowing accumulation to commence.  Plus, if lead CAA inserts some dry air and you are only around 50, UVM(dynamical cooling) combined with saturation thermodynamics will bomb the temperature down.   I have seen S+ at 36F with parachutes after a high earlier in the day of 55 in April, with no antecedent snow pack.   April has a higher sun angle - btw.  

 

The silver bullet is cold air.  If you got it, you got it.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Strangely 1980s are mostly void of snow in October. 1988 and 1987 had back to back but otherwise pretty weak. You have to go back to the 1960-1972 period to get a similar stretch of October snow...though obviously the huge bomb of 2011 was not matched.

 

Right, and though I wasn't really cognizant enough to care in the 1970s (too young), I do remember that the 1980s were some of the most fantastically boring Octobers, year after year, unrelenting...  Then came the 1987 thing, and it was torture living in eastern Mass, while video showed pancaked trees out just west of here.  That was just unprecedented for me at that time.   Heh, you know...I think 1987-1988 was probably the only winter worth a hill of beans in that era, despite it being a Cape Codder that led to busted blizzard calls on a couple of occasions. 

[J.Spin]

Up here Oct flakes seem more likely than not since 2000. BTV has had a trace or more in 11 years since 2000, and 6 years have had measurable. Only October 2007 and 2004 did not have a trace at BTV.

During the 1990s, it looks like a trace or more fell 9 times, with only October 1994 not seeing snow. So no real change between decades.

Going off JSpin's data for lower elevations (500ft) but near the Spine of the Greens, there's been measurable October snow in 5 of the last 7 years.

 

I also checked my records for those other two years, and although there wasn’t any accumulation, there was at least one occurrence of frozen precipitation by October in each case – one year there was sleet (10/28/07) and in the other year there was sleet (10/11/09) followed by snow a couple of days later (10/13/09).  I hadn’t actually checked on that until I saw your post, so it was interesting to see that it’s been pretty typical to have at least something frozen by October each year, even down at this elevation.

[Snow_Miser]

There are some signs on the GEFS that the cold spell will likely break down in early November, as a +NAO gets established. Models sometimes overdo the speed of these pattern changes though. 

[OKpowdah]

The 00z Euro continues to have a very cold and potentially stormy outlook for days 5-10+.

 

Quite an impressive pattern (and stable). Like I discussed in the typhoon thread ... the different forcing mechanisms coincided to produce a pattern shift toward a stable equilibrium, and until something comes along to disturb that equilibrium, there's no reason we move out of this pattern.

 

A lot of recurring themes in the Pacific over the next two weeks, including more tropical influence in the west Pac --> amplifies the ridge, extends the jet eastward, which supports significant cyclogenesis near the Aleutians and a persistent trough, with plumes of WAA and LHR toward western North America, anchored around at least 2 cutoff disturbances that get trapped in the eastern Pacific. So west coast ridging never spills further east into the CONUS, constantly breaking around the Rockies, and driving polar disturbances southward.

[Heisy]

6z GFS has jumped on the EURO camp, has a nice coastal low, upstate NE snowstorm

[moneypitmike]

6z GFS has jumped on the EURO camp, has a nice coastal low, upstate NE snowstorm

 

Yeah--it could even provide the highest peaks in mass a little coating.  Might need to make the drive to Florida.  Great to see, though I wish it would be later in the week.

[TalcottWx]

Sounds like you can at least fully lock up the pattern change

[MaineJayhawk]

Yup .... "congrats dendrite" looking like a viable sentence.

[moneypitmike]

Yup .... "congrats dendrite" looking like a viable sentence.

 

Influx of pictures from Scott (PF) incoming.  Can't argue climo at this range and expect cold rain for 98% of us.  But, we'll certainly can some inklings of whether some aberration may occur as things get closer.  Hope for , but  for now it would be wise to  expect

[HoarfrostHubb]

Sounds like you can at least fully lock up the pattern change

Glad to see some of the longer range folks hitting this change a while back and it hopefully panning out

[HoarfrostHubb]

Influx of pictures from Scott (PF) incoming. Can't argue climo at this range and expect cold rain for 98% of us. But, we'll certainly can some inklings of whether some aberration may occur as things get closer. Hope for , but for now it would be wise to expect

I could see mangled flakes working into spotlights

[dryslot]

Yup .... "congrats dendrite" looking like a viable sentence.

Lol

[dryslot]

6z GFS has jumped on the EURO camp, has a nice coastal low, upstate NE snowstorm

Yes it has, Quick hitter

[Ginx snewx]

The 00z Euro continues to have a very cold and potentially stormy outlook for days 5-10+.

 

Quite an impressive pattern (and stable). Like I discussed in the typhoon thread ... the different forcing mechanisms coincided to produce a pattern shift toward a stable equilibrium, and until something comes along to disturb that equilibrium, there's no reason we move out of this pattern.

 

A lot of recurring themes in the Pacific over the next two weeks, including more tropical influence in the west Pac --> amplifies the ridge, extends the jet eastward, which supports significant cyclogenesis near the Aleutians and a persistent trough, with plumes of WAA and LHR toward western North America, anchored around at least 2 cutoff disturbances that get trapped in the eastern Pacific. So west coast ridging never spills further east into the CONUS, constantly breaking around the Rockies, and driving polar disturbances southward.

Yes excellent analysis, models want to break the ridge down and some have pointed to that but until the equilibrium is highly disturbed, status quo.