Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

[Tropopause_Fold]

you could see that coming in the euro pretty early in the run. at least it's something to watch in the coming days.

 

gfs and cmc are faster and flatter with the energy...but do have it. you could see how much sharper the euro was as it was exiting canada and making the trip through the plains.

[TalcottWx]

Ignoring the 12z EURO because I haven't seen it yet. Looks like ensembles on GFS and EURO both look like a pretty strong lock up into this below average pattern. However, I see hints of that AK vortex coming back in. Also I wonder how long lived the pattern will be, hints of going back warmer at the end of all the runs but its all in fantasy land.

[TalcottWx]

There is nothing precarious about the trof on the 12z GEM! That is early winter!

[Ginx snewx]

you could see that coming in the euro pretty early in the run. at least it's something to watch in the coming days.

 

gfs and cmc are faster and flatter with the energy...but do have it. you could see how much sharper the euro was as it was exiting canada and making the trip through the plains.

534 with 32 degree line collapsing south, intriguing

[OKpowdah]

12z Euro is still keeping the 10/24 storm threat alive. Challenge is trying to amplify a shortwave in the very fast flow around that trough. CMC is giving it a try too.

[Tropopause_Fold]

 

 

 

[mob1]

This is so awesome!!!

A few days ago, a friend of mine who went to Lyndon State when I was there and is now a meteorologist out in OK sent me a message on facebook. He is friends with the founder of Geoenvironmental Atmosphere. He was looking someone to fill in a position of forecasting for CT/MA/RI area...updating the facebook page, along with contributing to the main website composing forecasts. They are also branching out in the private sector as well. Anyways, my friend referred to me and after sending him some information about myself, my goals when it comes to forecasting, and showing him my blog and my past write-ups he was quite impressed and I'm now part of the team! This isn't a paid position right now but with the branching out in the private sector, it may very well start generating my some money, perhaps by the winter. I just spoke with him on the phone today and just getting setup and all but this is an incredible, incredible opportunity!

Wow, congratulations!

[weatherwiz]

Wow, congratulations!

 

Thanks!

 

I'm really looking forward to this opportunity.  

[ORH_wxman]

The Euro is definitely interesting. That 10/24-10/25 timeframe has been there for a little while now. Its still a relative longshot but we'll have to see how it plays out.

[NorEastermass128]

This is so awesome!!!

 

A few days ago, a friend of mine who went to Lyndon State when I was there and is now a meteorologist out in OK sent me a message on facebook.  He is friends with the founder of Geoenvironmental Atmosphere.  He was looking someone to fill in a position of forecasting for CT/MA/RI area...updating the facebook page, along with contributing to the main website composing forecasts.  They are also branching out in the private sector as well.  Anyways, my friend referred to me and after sending him some information about myself, my goals when it comes to forecasting, and showing him my blog and my past write-ups he was quite impressed and I'm now part of the team!  This isn't a paid position right now but with the branching out in the private sector, it may very well start generating my some money, perhaps by the winter.  I just spoke with him on the phone today and just getting setup and all but this is an incredible, incredible opportunity!  

 

Congrats!  

 

I'm just looking forward to the first hard freeze next week.  Lowest temp. IMBY has been 35F so far.  Allergies are killer this fall.

[dryslot]

ukmet.png

 

 

lol, Bomb

[moneypitmike]

it's a maple mauler to kick off the season. MRG waxing up his skis and Will figuring out how to get to weenie ridge next week. 

 

Maybe make an early departure from my conference on Thursday.

 

There is nothing precarious about the trof on the 12z GEM! That is early winter!

 

The Day After Tomorrow begins.

[Tropopause_Fold]

euro even has a little closed 40F contour pop up at 18z thursday over the ORH hills with that coastal. 

[moneypitmike]

euro even has a little closed 40F contour pop up at 18z thursday over the ORH hills with that coastal. 

 

They always trend north.....oh wait--that's from the 'hated winter terms/phrases' thread.

[ORH_wxman]

The ensembles have a hint of the low...weak low going near the BM and some light QPF hitting SE areas. Obviously not nearly as defined as the OP run, but it is there nonetheless, so it is worth watching.

[Ginx snewx]

Thanks!

 

I'm really looking forward to this opportunity.  

Congrats Paul. I know in my heart that someday you will be on to big things.

[powderfreak]

The ensembles have a hint of the low...weak low going near the BM and some light QPF hitting SE areas. Obviously not nearly as defined as the OP run, but it is there nonetheless, so it is worth watching.

"That's right where we want it at this time frame."

[CoastalWx]

I'm surprised you know who isn't barking

[powderfreak]

I'm surprised you know who isn't barking

Who Ryan? lol.

Where has the Hype been?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Cats paws in late October seems reasonable

2011 does not

[Ginx snewx]

Somebody posted (forky?) that 850s would not be translated down and the air would be modified due to lack of snow. Will be an interesting test of that theory. From Ryan Maue

[Ginx snewx]

Who Ryan? lol.

Where has the Hype been?

you hate him but you love him

[Chrisrotary12]

Somebody posted (forky?) that 850s would not be translated down and the air would be modified due to lack of snow. Will be an interesting test of that theory. From Ryan Maue

 

I spy with my little eye.   Amazing image showing the longwave hemispheric pattern.

[powderfreak]

you hate him but you love him

It's true, lol. There's not as much posting if he's absent; no one needs to counter the bold claims/statements.

But this is now banter and should go to the other thread.

[merrychristmas]

That is an all out early winter on the operational GFS.   It's not like a week long cold excursion like what led to the Halloween storm a couple years ago, that is a repetitive deep meridional transport of winter air into the NP, GL -- N OV and NE regions.   It may take 5 days to really get the bite in here, but from then on... brrr.

Couldn't agree more. In theory, what you see below is an all-out winter temperature pattern across the continent and with the sun angle being equivelant to that of mid to late winter by this time, I don't see what could really knock us back out of this winter pattern at all in November except for the normal up and down cycles of cold that we get during winter. Once winter conditions set up shop across the board, I think it will take spring strength sun angle to get us back out and that doesn't come til spring proper. If what the GFS shows holds true, the above may end up being the case, although a snowpack is needed to support this cold.

[Typhoon Tip]

Question:  How many Octobers since the year 2000 have features snow -- and yes, "snow in the air" counts.  Any snow at all, counts.  Snow grains, count.  Was it a gray strata afternoon in a biting early season cool snap, with snow grains and sprinkles in the valley floors, with snow showers on the elevation tops.  That counts.  How many Octobers has it snowed since the year 2000 of any ilk at all.  

 

I was having this discussion with another Met today.  Since the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, growing up between Michigan and eastern New England.  I only recall it snowing once from LE in Michigan in October.   Since 2000?   5 times in New England, and I know from family in Michigan, it's snowed a few times in October there, too.  

 

It is possible that it may have occurred more than my memory in those years, but as is, just the one time in Michigan, and never in eastern MA.  It came close in 1987.  There was an event that featured 42F and wind swept rain over eastern areas in October that year, while it snow ridiculously in western New England.  I suppose that Meteorology on a regional scale requires that as a positive occurrence.  Okay.   But not 5 times in 12 years.  Wow. And if it hits on D6, that's 6 times in 12 years - HALF!  Nearing the last couple of Octobers, I admit to now almost having to fight an expectation that snow will show up in the charts at some point or another, if not verify, and that expectation is based purely on these last 10 years of experiences. 

 

Maybe that is totally normal, and that hypothetically ... every 300 years you get a string of Octobers that do this. Who knows.   

[merrychristmas]

Now all we need is a few coastals to go with it

I absolutely LOVE those. Not necessarily for getting snow because they don't often get Toronto that, but instead I like how they can help carve out troughs in the east behind them. Strengthening lows just off to our east, moving north (not north of us moving east) are our best friend if we at least want our cold to get well established. I think the underlined is a pretty good rule.

[mitchnick]

Wunderground Euro snowfall map at 156 hrs shows and inch or 2 over central and western MA, couple spots in far northern CT and southern VT and NH (there's actually some before and after that hour but the Wunderground maps skip frames that late in the run)

I'd post it but it won't let me save the image by right clicking and I am otherwise computer illiterate

[ORH_wxman]

 

Question:  How many Octobers since the year 2000 have features snow -- and yes, "snow in the air" counts.  Any snow at all, counts.  Snow grains, count.  Was it a gray strata afternoon in a biting early season cool snap, with snow grains and sprinkles in the valley floors, with snow showers on the elevation tops.  That counts.  How many Octobers has it snowed since the year 2000 of any ilk at all.  

 

I was having this discussion with another Met today.  Since the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, growing up between Michigan and eastern New England.  I only recall it snowing once from LE in Michigan in October.   Since 2000?   5 times in New England, and I know from family in Michigan, it's snowed a few times in October there, too.  

 

It is possible that it may have occurred more than my memory in those years, but as is, just the one time in Michigan, and never in eastern MA.  It came close in 1987.  There was an event that featured 42F and wind swept rain over eastern areas in October that year, while it snow ridiculously in western New England.  I suppose that Meteorology on a regional scale requires that as a positive occurrence.  Okay.   But not 5 times in 12 years.  Wow. And if it hits on D6, that's 6 times in 12 years - HALF!  Nearing the last couple of Octobers, I admit to now almost having to fight an expectation that snow will show up in the charts at some point or another, if not verify, and that expectation is based purely on these last 10 years of experiences. 

 

Maybe that is totally normal, and that hypothetically ... every 300 years you get a string of Octobers that do this. Who knows.   

 

 

 

It's snowed here 8 times since 2000 if you count just flakes in the air.

 

Measurable snows at ORH in October were 2000 (10/30), 2002 (10/23), 2003 (10/23), 2009 (10/15-16 and 10/18), and 2011 (10/27 and 10/29-30). In addition to those years, 2005, 2008, and 2010 had a trace of snow. 2005 had measurable in BOS amazingly but not at ORH. The 2010 snow was just brief flurries on the night of 10/23, the 2008 snow was on the tail end of a bomb coastal on 10/28 that dumped heavy snow in the catskills and Poconos and even down to low elevations in parts of N NJ...we changed to snow for about an hour later that evening, but only briefly whitened the mulchy areas. Then in 2005, we had that bizarred cutoff that brought some ehanced omega over E MA and it snowed heavily for a couple hours while back this way we only had a rain/snow mix...and wasn't able to precipitate hard enough. BOS had 1.1" while some nearby areas had upward of 2-3". Also in 2005, we had a second instance of a trace of snow. It was on the back end of another coastal that buried the northern mountains in snow (Whites and Greens)...we flipped to snow late that night but didnt accumulate. I think it was maybe 10/25/05.

 

 

In contrast, in the 1990s, ORH saw a trace of snow just one time in October (1993) and zero measurable events. Though 1992 had a trace of snow on 9/30, so that should be noted. Earliest trace of snow on record at ORH.

[merrychristmas]

lol...euro says seasons first snow over the interior next friday. 

Looks like we could be getting it much sooner if the GFS verifies. It shows up as early as Tuesday! Near Toronto in the morning and in isolated spots in the evening in the us NE. More widespread appears Wednesday onwards. While not much on these days:

 

Looks like even more widespread Thursday so we could end up pretty early with this: