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Second Half of October Wx Discussion?


CT Rain

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and your norm high and low are?

 

I really don't know.  How's that for an answer?  I know my highs typically run 6-8* lower than Greenfield and about 2* warmer than West Chesterfield.

 

My lows are really warm relative to you and most of SNE it seems.  Chris is G'field will radiate to 10* or more below me.

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That is an all out early winter on the operational GFS.   It's not like a week long cold excursion like what led to the Halloween storm a couple years ago, that is a repetitive deep meridional transport of winter air into the NP, GL -- N OV and NE regions.   It may take 5 days to really get the bite in here, but from then on... brrr.

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That is an all out early winter on the operational GFS.   It's not like a week long cold excursion like what led to the Halloween storm a couple years ago, that is a repetitive deep meridional transport of winter air into the NP, GL -- N OV and NE regions.   It may take 5 days to really get the bite in here, but from then on... brrr.

 

You had me at "meridonal".

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That is an all out early winter on the operational GFS.   It's not like a week long cold excursion like what led to the Halloween storm a couple years ago, that is a repetitive deep meridional transport of winter air into the NP, GL -- N OV and NE regions.   It may take 5 days to really get the bite in here, but from then on... brrr.

 

 

Pretty weenieish run for cold. That would be record-breaking, so obviously I'm skeptical of the magnitude, but the ensemble guidance is definitely going for a fairly solid period of cold.

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0.65" of rain up here last night. Most significant rain in a while even though it's still relatively paltry.

 

Dumped 0.19" from the gauge at 7 this morning, probably got only a few cents after that.  Temps have run 5-10F above avg past week or so - my avg for 10/18 is 54/33.  Only 2-3 days and the avg low gets down to freezing; maybe by next week the actual temp gets back down there.

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66 here. Per the Wunderground site our avg. high is 57 for today. Can't see how ORH avg is 58 ?

 

 

What station is it using? Is it a home station? How long is the period of record? Is it a smoothed average?

 

All those things could give a very different answer.

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Dumped 0.19" from the gauge at 7 this morning, probably got only a few cents after that. Temps have run 5-10F above avg past week or so - my avg for 10/18 is 54/33. Only 2-3 days and the avg low gets down to freezing; maybe by next week the actual temp gets back down there.

Yeah the torch has been impressive...we've been throwing up double digit departures lately.

BTV is +7.3 now and has not had a single AOB day this month. All positive departures.

MVL here in Stowe has an average of 56/34 right now at 730ft and we've had a lot of days like yesterday...65/47. All out torch when climo says we should have daily frosts. Average low dips to freezing in 6 days.

Here at MVL we aren't quite as bad as BTV, but are still +6.0 on the month. The last 7 days have been...+8, +7, +12, +2, +11, +12, +11 and today will be another huge departure too.

SLK also at +6.3 for the month. Impressive.

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That's weird. It definitely doesn't match with other records. The closest COOP that recorded temperature there was the old springfield coop and their average for Oct 18 was 63F...very much in line with BDL for 10/18. The Amherst coop up the valley gives and 1981-2010 average high of 62F (61.8F) for 10/18

 

Not sure what else to look at. I can't think of why CEF would be 4-5F colder than those other spots. Just for kicks, I checked ORH on wunderground, and they listed the correct 58F for the average high. So...the CEF number is a mystery to me.

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Pretty weenieish run for cold. That would be record-breaking, so obviously I'm skeptical of the magnitude, but the ensemble guidance is definitely going for a fairly solid period of cold.

 

And I've seen some early cold pops in Octobers and Novembers of lore, but I really am having trouble recalling anything so deep and invasive, and prolonged. Perhaps 1989 .. but that was later.  This absurdly early if this comes to fruition.  There's really several waves of deeper cold embedded in a 10 day negative anomaly to track on that run. 

 

And as you said  ... the ensembles have DEFINITELY ( I agree ) been flagging cold one way or the other.  I'm really impressed with this!  With the over-all hemispheric appeal, to teleconnector idiosyncrasies monitored, to the fact that we're now about to jam another borderline super typhoon into the AB phase of  the N Pac...  

 

wow

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Wow, that is a thing of beauty !!   

 

Massive S/W power exits the MA on a NE trajectory, with fresh ambient cold thickness over New England...  Look at that tasty thermal compression up into the south Coast, with some 5 or more isotherms packed into the LI Sound.   Without even using special software that's got to be some serious elevated upright frontal slope and some impressive UVM.

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