ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Avg low? 40F? Yes right around 40F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 and your norm high and low are? I really don't know. How's that for an answer? I know my highs typically run 6-8* lower than Greenfield and about 2* warmer than West Chesterfield. My lows are really warm relative to you and most of SNE it seems. Chris is G'field will radiate to 10* or more below me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 I really don't know. How's that for an answer? I know my highs typically run 6-8* lower than Greenfield and about 2* warmer than West Chesterfield. My lows are really warm relative to you and most of SNE it seems. Chris is G'field will radiate to 10* or more below me. It's a torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 It's a torch! lol, likely a bust on the progged low 60's.though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 lol, likely a bust on the progged low 60's.though. Likely. Just an amazing stretch of weather this has been this month. Can't complain. Hammer drops next week though as we get a taste of real Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 That is an all out early winter on the operational GFS. It's not like a week long cold excursion like what led to the Halloween storm a couple years ago, that is a repetitive deep meridional transport of winter air into the NP, GL -- N OV and NE regions. It may take 5 days to really get the bite in here, but from then on... brrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Likely. Just an amazing stretch of weather this has been this month. Can't complain. Hammer drops next week though as we get a taste of real Fall. Hopefully after I return from a couple days in NYC for a conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 That is an all out early winter on the operational GFS. It's not like a week long cold excursion like what led to the Halloween storm a couple years ago, that is a repetitive deep meridional transport of winter air into the NP, GL -- N OV and NE regions. It may take 5 days to really get the bite in here, but from then on... brrr. You had me at "meridonal". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 That is an all out early winter on the operational GFS. It's not like a week long cold excursion like what led to the Halloween storm a couple years ago, that is a repetitive deep meridional transport of winter air into the NP, GL -- N OV and NE regions. It may take 5 days to really get the bite in here, but from then on... brrr. Pretty weenieish run for cold. That would be record-breaking, so obviously I'm skeptical of the magnitude, but the ensemble guidance is definitely going for a fairly solid period of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 0.65" of rain up here last night. Most significant rain in a while even though it's still relatively paltry. Dumped 0.19" from the gauge at 7 this morning, probably got only a few cents after that. Temps have run 5-10F above avg past week or so - my avg for 10/18 is 54/33. Only 2-3 days and the avg low gets down to freezing; maybe by next week the actual temp gets back down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Pretty weenieish run for cold. That would be record-breaking, so obviously I'm skeptical of the magnitude, but the ensemble guidance is definitely going for a fairly solid period of cold. Now all we need is a few coastals to go with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Yeah--I'm down to 56.3 off my high of 58.2. 66 here. Per the Wunderground site our avg. high is 57 for today. Can't see how ORH avg is 58 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 66 here. Per the Wunderground site our avg. high is 57 for today. Can't see how ORH avg is 58 ? What station is it using? Is it a home station? How long is the period of record? Is it a smoothed average? All those things could give a very different answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 What station is it using? Is it a home station? How long is the period of record? Is it a smoothed average? All those things could give a very different answer. Looks like CEF. Just scroll down to October http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCEF/2013/5/23/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Dumped 0.19" from the gauge at 7 this morning, probably got only a few cents after that. Temps have run 5-10F above avg past week or so - my avg for 10/18 is 54/33. Only 2-3 days and the avg low gets down to freezing; maybe by next week the actual temp gets back down there. Yeah the torch has been impressive...we've been throwing up double digit departures lately. BTV is +7.3 now and has not had a single AOB day this month. All positive departures. MVL here in Stowe has an average of 56/34 right now at 730ft and we've had a lot of days like yesterday...65/47. All out torch when climo says we should have daily frosts. Average low dips to freezing in 6 days. Here at MVL we aren't quite as bad as BTV, but are still +6.0 on the month. The last 7 days have been...+8, +7, +12, +2, +11, +12, +11 and today will be another huge departure too. SLK also at +6.3 for the month. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 66 here. Per the Wunderground site our avg. high is 57 for today. Can't see how ORH avg is 58 ? MVL here in Stowe/Morrisville has an average high of 56F today...low of 34. 58F at ORH makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 MVL here in Stowe/Morrisville has an average high of 56F today...low of 34. 58F at ORH makes sense. Ya CEF def is not only 1 f milder than MVL , maybe 6 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Looks like CEF. Just scroll down to October http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCEF/2013/5/23/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar That's weird. It definitely doesn't match with other records. The closest COOP that recorded temperature there was the old springfield coop and their average for Oct 18 was 63F...very much in line with BDL for 10/18. The Amherst coop up the valley gives and 1981-2010 average high of 62F (61.8F) for 10/18 Not sure what else to look at. I can't think of why CEF would be 4-5F colder than those other spots. Just for kicks, I checked ORH on wunderground, and they listed the correct 58F for the average high. So...the CEF number is a mystery to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 wonder if the euro is going to try and cook something up with the shortwave rounding the base of the trough. looks impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 That 57 has to be off. The evidence seems quite strong against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Pretty weenieish run for cold. That would be record-breaking, so obviously I'm skeptical of the magnitude, but the ensemble guidance is definitely going for a fairly solid period of cold. And I've seen some early cold pops in Octobers and Novembers of lore, but I really am having trouble recalling anything so deep and invasive, and prolonged. Perhaps 1989 .. but that was later. This absurdly early if this comes to fruition. There's really several waves of deeper cold embedded in a 10 day negative anomaly to track on that run. And as you said ... the ensembles have DEFINITELY ( I agree ) been flagging cold one way or the other. I'm really impressed with this! With the over-all hemispheric appeal, to teleconnector idiosyncrasies monitored, to the fact that we're now about to jam another borderline super typhoon into the AB phase of the N Pac... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 lol...euro says seasons first snow over the interior next friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 verbatim...it would definitely be relegated to the highest elevations but...good coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 . I don't believe CEF has normals which is odd, however, these nearby stations do: AMHERST (AHRM3): 61/37 WESTFIELD 2 NE AP (KBAF): 61/38 WESTFIELD 3 SW (WSTM3): 61/39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 LOL euro. Precarious trough FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 120 our Oper Euro is ...heh, shall we say ...intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 First synoptic snow on the D6 Euro... Need this to get to D5 to dodge the caveat emptor but this is aw-hawsome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 it's a maple mauler to kick off the season. MRG waxing up his skis and Will figuring out how to get to weenie ridge next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Posted a comment on the 12z Euro in the banter, Could be interesting next thurs/fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Wow, that is a thing of beauty !! Massive S/W power exits the MA on a NE trajectory, with fresh ambient cold thickness over New England... Look at that tasty thermal compression up into the south Coast, with some 5 or more isotherms packed into the LI Sound. Without even using special software that's got to be some serious elevated upright frontal slope and some impressive UVM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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