powderfreak Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 To point this out for the members. Here is the Day 10 panel off E-Wall. Nic s/w coming out of Canada round the trough. 850s are below 0c for all of NE. Interesting setup as modeled. Day 10 Euro 10-17-13.jpg Thats -10C air at H85 up here...that's what we were for the Oct 2011 storm. I still have to think unless anything is a real dynamic system (such as Oct 2011) that we should be looking for -6C or less at H85 for any snowfall in lower elevations. A light to moderate type event this time of year can still be like -3C at H85 and raining at 3000ft and lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 You could have made a map honestly even posting that sounding I was worried about derailing the thread too much. Alright, back to talking planetary scale past day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 euro 2-m into the 30s on thu and fri morning way down into the deep south. factor in radiation on that and you'd probably have some 20s in parts of N GA and AL. that's impressive for this time of year. climo is low 50s at ATL (not that they'd pull 20s obviously) and day 6/7 MEX is 41F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 We had 87" in Stowe Village that winter based on the CoCoRAHS station...I was wondering if they beat us down there but looks like they were close. I'll say their 70-80" was probably higher impact snow than the 87" here which included 17" of fluff in a late-Feb upslope storm. My house got 90" in 09/10 about 35 miles NW of DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 To point this out for the members. Here is the Day 10 panel off E-Wall. Nic s/w coming out of Canada round the trough. 850s are below 0c for all of NE. Interesting setup as modeled. Day 10 Euro 10-17-13.jpg There really is a ton of potential in that pattern. Plus the infamous Southwest cutoff low on the long range Euro lol. Once the upstream shortwave (sitting on top of the ridge) moves eastward, the ridge should explode poleward again, sending another shot from the arctic into the Plains. Not to mention the storm raking the Aleutians at that time too Gotta love this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 My house got 90" in 09/10 about 35 miles NW of DCA Epic. Probably not too often you guys can beat the NNE mountain towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Interesting Will about the snow totals but that really is beside the point. It only underscores how rare that season was and I highly doubt that it happens just based on the numbers in general. *********** As far as any specific wintry threat ... It is less likely that any given cycle of the oper. Euro depicting a D10 feature will succeed. That's pretty obvious. The main thing to take away from this is that that last 5 days of the month could certainly produce; what and how are the key questions to be ironed out in time. My own teleconnector method is fraught with potential in there, as well... I haven't belabored the issue because most have been onto this for some time. Definitely a flagged interval of interest in there. Even if we don't get freezing or frozen p-types, we appear destined for hard freezes and heavy frost nights, with highs less than 50 in the els. But it would be a "snow atmosphere." I don't care what month of the year it is, if you got -4C at 850 at less than 540dm thickness, and you charge that sounding with moisture, it falls as snow. That is really the heavily agreed upon air mass for the D5+ range. Which by the way, that agreement for that range is pretty impressive in its own rite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 funny how climo works with the fall season and frost / freeze events. it's the same every yeah. (duh i guess). a lot of spots like the hills, cities and parts of the coast won't frost...and instead have to wait to go straight to a freeze with the first real push of cold late oct or into november while some interior valley will have frost like 30 days earlier. down here, there is never really a county-wide frost...parts of the cape will get a frost early in October (as has happened this Oct) and then eventually the entire area will finally drop into the 20s one night but accompanied with wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Epic. Probably not too often you guys can beat the NNE mountain towns.My guess is that was and will be the only time....had about 43" on the ground after Feb 10 storm...distant but fond memory now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 To point this out for the members. Here is the Day 10 panel off E-Wall. Nic s/w coming out of Canada round the trough. 850s are below 0c for all of NE. Interesting setup as modeled. Day 10 Euro 10-17-13.jpg Wow look at the firehose into Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Going to rain tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Quiet here this evening... but a nice muggy feel outside with dews near 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Euro is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Euro is interesting. Yes how Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Yes how SE MA scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 SE MA scraper. Temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Temps? Teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Temps? i'd be happy with plain rain at this point, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 My house got 90" in 09/10 about 35 miles NW of DCA I believe north of Baltimore around Manchester and Westminster Md areas received close to 100 inches in 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 i'd be happy with plain rain at this point,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 That makes 2 of us. Got zilch last night, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 That makes 2 of us. Got zilch last night, Looked like Franklin Co. was the southern extent of the moisture. Ground was wet this morning but nothing measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 0.65" of rain up here last night. Most significant rain in a while even though it's still relatively paltry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Torchy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Torchy day. Yeah--I'm down to 56.3 off my high of 58.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Yeah--I'm down to 56.3 off my high of 58.2. and your norm high and low are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Downslope dandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 The 12z GFS is frigid to start Nov. 850s are -10c down to about the South Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 and your norm high and low are? ORH average high is 58F for today which means he would probably be in the 56-57F range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 ORH average high is 58F for today which means he would probably be in the 56-57F range. Avg low? 40F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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