Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Wow if only this v-max would pass UNDER LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Euro ensembles are quite cold through Halloween. We'll see if the breakdown of the EPO ridge happens in early November or if the models try and rush it, but for the last week of October, we can expect some pretty cold stuff. Definitely a good shot of flakes in the NNE mountains in that pattern...and if something is timed right, some down in SNE could very possibly see flakes. This is sort of bow 2011 evolved..We weren't sure..though signals were there.Interesting to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Nice upslope snow event for the northern Greens and Adirondacks on the GFS for later next week. Once that vort max that Tippy posted gets east of here, it's NW winds and CAA with residual moisture. The tell-take sign of numerous model periods with light QPF across the northern tier on cyclonic flow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 I'm feeling a big early season upslope event this year in November for some reason. It's been a little while ( early Dec 2011) since New England has seen a big early season NW flow event and I keep hearing winters like 2002-2003 and 2003-2004 get thrown out there. Both of those winters started with upslope whoppers in the Greens, and Mansfield had over 3 feet on the ground by the end of Nov 2002. The Nov 2003 storm was the first year I moved up here from ALB and I remember being blown away that places like SLK/MPV/MVL would be reporting M1/4 +SN and BLSN while BTV is partly to mostly cloudy, lol. I am ing out to the forecasts from back then...8-12" worth of snow showers (lol at the snow showers wording with 6-10" in the same forecast block) with gusts to 60mph. This forecast was only half of the amount of snow that actually ended up falling in the mountains. VTZ003-006-016-017-132100- EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-EASTERN FRANKLIN VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORLEANS VT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT VT...RICHFORD VT...STOWE VT... UNDERHILL VT 427 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003 ...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT... ...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES. ACCUMULATION 6 TO 10 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. VERY WINDY. LOW 20 TO 25. NORTHWEST WIND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. WINDY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Euro ensembles are quite cold through Halloween. We'll see if the breakdown of the EPO ridge happens in early November or if the models try and rush it, but for the last week of October, we can expect some pretty cold stuff. Definitely a good shot of flakes in the NNE mountains in that pattern...and if something is timed right, some down in SNE could very possibly see flakes. The 12z ECM is pretty impressive, but it looks to me as if the biggest cold shot would actually be after Day 10. As the Aleutian low deepens, a classic cut-off high strengthens to 588dm off the coast of British Columbia. Euro has a pocket of -12Cto -16C 850s moving into the N Plains with a closed 534dm low. We might see one storm cut to our northwest due to the amount of shortwave ridging ahead of the closed low, but the floodgates would absolutely open following the Day 10-11 hypothetical cutter/runner. Beautiful pattern and definitely going to create some refreshing fall air after this extremely mild October, almost been reminiscent of 2007 so far. Wow if only this v-max would pass UNDER LI I think the jet stream is too far north for that evolution to occur on 10/23. It's a favorable look for terrain enhanced snow showers as well as lake effect, and we might even see freezes all the way down to NYC. NYC/Central Park hasn't seen an October freeze since 1988, but we must be getting awfully close on the 12z ECM. 850s are pushing -5C with a 1040mb surface high by Day 10, brutal stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Sorry, coldest air I meant. Our less - anomalies probably owed to storm track. Expect a lot of "whees" from up and down..although overall avg should be down I think. And of course those -10s in the SE are a lot different than -10s in the Dakotas. Not warm, but also not totally out of the ordinary for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 If you were east of 128/I-95, it was heart breaking...west of there got pounded while it was a lot of rain east. Esp the Jan 3-4, 2003 storm. The Christmas storm did give decent snow to BOS-PVD but the Jan storm didn't. Whiffed on both storms while on winter break, as ITH got pounded. ITH topped 100" that season, a feat I still haven't repeated in any city I've lived in (PWM 98" last winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Whiffed on both storms while on winter break, as ITH got pounded. ITH topped 100" that season, a feat I still haven't repeated in any city I've lived in (PWM 98" last winter). I was actually back at Cornell for the Jan 3-4 storm taking a winter session class. Best synoptic snowstorm in my 4 years there. March 4-6, 2001 dropped slightly more snow (maybe an inch or two more) but it fell over 3 days....the Jan 3-4 storm had an awesome deformation band over us for once that just pounded snow for several hours. Probably 9" of the 15" that fell came in about 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 I was actually back at Cornell for the Jan 3-4 storm taking a winter session class. Best synoptic snowstorm in my 4 years there. March 4-6, 2001 dropped slightly more snow (maybe an inch or two more) but it fell over 3 days....the Jan 3-4 storm had an awesome deformation band over us for once that just pounded snow for several hours. Probably 9" of the 15" that fell came in about 4 hours. Those drifts stuck around forever, especially when it got brutally cold just as winter break ended. I think we lost a percentage of our class to southern schools when that couple week stretch broke them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Full hunter moon at midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Lol on the GFS, congrats Dendrite , Pete,! Dry slot, Tamarack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Lol on the GFS, congrats Dendrite , Pete,! Dry slot, Tamarack Looks like winter is coming early if the GFS verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 GFS 192 looks more like early december than october. that would be snow for a lot of people here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Lol on the GFS, congrats Dendrite , Pete,! Dry slot, Tamarack Looks like winter is coming early if the GFS verified. GFS 192 looks more like early december than october. that would be snow for a lot of people here Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 49m This could be a long winter. pic.twitter.com/fhGHVrG8sN lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Full hunter moon at midnight Nice... still a fairly mild 55 degrees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Awful start to the day. 50.5/50 following a low of 49.0. At least we lhave some showers to look forward to tonight and some gusty winds over the next couple of days before the mild down next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Thought we could get more rain in western areas, but most of it is NW. Even chance of thunder in VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Wow..Looking more and more like many of us see first flakes next week if GFS/Euro are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Awful start to the day. 50.5/50 following a low of 49.0. At least we lhave some showers to look forward to tonight and some gusty winds over the next couple of days before the mild down next week. Sounds like a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Wow..Looking more and more like many of us see first flakes next week if GFS/Euro are right Euro isn't really on board yet, but has flakes for the mtns. GEFS ensembles are all over the place so not exactly tickling high confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Euro isn't really on board yet, but has flakes for the mtns. GEFS ensembles are all over the place so not exactly tickling high confidence. Well it's nice to see the chance is there at least. maybe the Euro ens look more promising? Last summer morning today of the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Ignoring the 06z run making it just a fropa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Ignoring the 06z run making it just a fropa? Off-hour run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Kevin says >5-10 below normal. Anything showing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 0Z GFS off its rocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Kevin says >5-10 below normal. Anything showing that? At least a day or two probably could be double digit negative departure. Still a bit early though...the best time for that is still roughly 7+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Still don't see much in the way of big relaxation out by AK. The -EPO will flatten out a bit, but no black hole yet. The EC ensembles do try to migrate the PV towards the area north of AK, but the PV also took a gut punch and is elongated from SIberia to eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Still don't see much in the way of big relaxation out by AK. The -EPO will flatten out a bit, but no black hole yet. The EC ensembles do try to migrate the PV towards the area north of AK, but the PV also took a gut punch and is elongated from SIberia to eastern Canada. Optimism rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Optimism rising. I still think it relaxes a bit...I mean it has to eventually right? That said, it's tough for me to gauge how it shakes how later in November. I do like seeing the PV disturbed and it will be difficult to rapidly retract and become a concentric black hole near the Bering Sea when it's that disturbed, but we'll have monitor how it shapes up going through early November. We can manage with an Aleutian ridge of a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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